Scrivero fades the popular plays, because that seems to bring cash

[Scrivero]

For sure there are also consensus picks that miss with the good cappers as well. There are though most likely more losing consensus picks with the people losing money. This thread isnt about trying to get all plays right either, its about hitting that 55-60 % to make loads of cash in the end as my plays seem to be on average at ca +100. We will keep missing some plays but hit good on others, like the Marlins today.

And too bad the Braves was an RL play too (even if they still could make it). Blue Jays is still my "top" play of the day though (Braves was another) and them hitting or not hitting the SU and the RL will basically decide if we get + or - for today or any other day. There will be some minus days too for sure. We could hit the Marlins and nothing more and end up minus 4 units. We just gotta see how this system plays out.

I appreciate your points though. The system is far from ready, this is just the starting point.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Here's a good one for you. Track the record of plays, on this site, where the play is listed in the title of the thread. Those seem to lose a lot. You won't see this in the threads that are updated daily, such as this thread. There are some who post new threads everyday

[Scrivero]

Here's a good one for you. Track the record of plays, on this site, where the play is listed in the title of the thread. Those seem to lose a lot. You won't see this in the threads that are updated daily, such as this thread. There are some who post new threads everyday

That would be a good one I think! I will see what I can do By the way, the Braves are making a solid comeback, only 4-3 now. Tehre is still hope!

[snider]

Here's a good one for you. Track the record of plays, on this site, where the play is listed in the title of the thread. Those seem to lose a lot. You won't see this in the threads that are updated daily, such as this thread. There are some who post new threads everyday

start your michael jackson the 4th quarter sbr plays with that

[MJ4thQuarter92]

start your michael jackson the 4th quarter sbr plays with that

Well I would be off to a 2-0 start. I saw "Red Sox TTu4" and "Reds/Giants Over" each posted in the title of a thread. Both lost.

[Scrivero]

Well I would be off to a 2-0 start. I saw "Red Sox TTu4" and "Reds/Giants Over" each posted in the title of a thread. Both lost.

Start it man

[Scrivero]

RESULTS
5/6: 0,5 units each:
betting (fading, how many played):
Braves SU (Cardinals, 2 people played) LOSS
Braves RL-1,5 (Cardinals, 2 people played) LOSS
Marlins SU (Mets, 2 people played) WIN
Athletics SU (Tigers, 2 people played) WIN
Cubs SU (Yankees, 2 people played) LOSS
Blue Jays SU (Rays, 3 people played) WIN
Blue Jays RL-1,5 (Rays, 3 people played) LOSS
Royals SU (Indians, 2 people played) LOSS
Rangers SU (Mariners, 2 people played) LOSS
Red Sox/Twins Under7 (Over7, 2 people played) LOSS

Evening: 3-7: -1,955 units

RECORD
SU: 22-17: +4,521 units
RL: 3-3: +1,945 units (people:w/l: 2*: 1-1, 4: 1-0, 7: 1-0, 3: 0-1 , 2: 0-1)
O/U: 12-14: -2,092 units
All fades: 37-34: +4,374 units

Record (w-l) of how many people played the play that I faded:
2 people played: 19-24
2* people played (difference of 2 people): 3-3
3 people played: 7-3
3* people played (difference of 2 people): 0-1
4 people played: 5-3
5 people played: 1-0
7 people played: 2-0

Its a small sample size for sure, but it is starting look like the bigger the amount of peope playing the play, the better it works as a fade. I wish we had a bigger sample size though. I am not gonna leave out the games with just two plays or a difference of two, but I certainly will bet either a full unit or SU and RL with games that have many (4 or more at least) plays in my fade pool.

Tonight's plays coming later!

[Scrivero]

Any other stats I should be following in my plays to be able to analyze later what works and what doesnt?

[Sir-Ater]

the more people on one side is usually a good sign

[Scrivero]

the more people on one side is usually a good sign

For sure it is and I think I need to start using that more. Hence I am making an adjustment/test:
- I will just fade plays that have at least 3 people playing it. If there are people playing both sides, then it has to have a difference of at least 3.
- This means that the pick should be more reliable as seemingly, more people playing the play, the more fading it wins. If there are just 2 plays for a pick, there is too much of a risk that I just happened to get two people playing the play and the next person posting could have the opposite pick, hence making it not a pick at all.
- Like I mentioned in the previous post, I will bet either a full unit or SU and RL with games that have many (4 or more at least) plays in my fade pool.

Just some thoughts. I will now make the plays.

[Scrivero]

Alright, a really strange evening. There were 4 games in O/U that had a difference of 2 plays, so we wont fade those.

For SU/RL there was only 1 game with 2 a play difference (3-1). My fade pool is very divided between all plays tonight. With that said, I will do the one game with the 2 play difference even if I said that I will need at least a 3 play difference. But (hopefully) just for tonight.

5/7: 0,5 units each:
betting (fading, how many played):
Pirates SU (Dodgers, 2* people played)
Pirates RL-1,5 (Dodgers, 2* people played)

[OoDeBaby]

Dont fade me bro!!

Lol jk, sort of, but lets go Dodgers! Haha BOL

[Scrivero]

Dont fade me bro!!

Lol jk, sort of, but lets go Dodgers! Haha BOL

Ya I shouldnt fade you, though you are kinda on and off my fade pool

Exact stats probably Friday. Last night we lost both for -1 unit in total. Im off to a work trip early tomorrow morning so wont have time to update the stats after tonights plays either, only friday. Not be able to make any plays before thursday eitehr.

I have a small change in my fade pool which "should" bring more plays. And from now on: ONLY fading plays where there is an AT LEAST difference of 3 people in the plays. Minimum difference of 4 plays gets an SU and an RL play.

[Scrivero]

I will be gone for tomorrow so we are playing 1 unit each play.

5/7: 1 unit each:
betting (fading, how many played):
Royals SU (Rays, 3 people played)
Mets SU (Giants, 3 people played)
Orioles SU (Nationals, 4 people played)
Orioles RL-1,5 (Nationals, 4 people played)
Indians/Blue Jays Over 8 (Under 8, 3 people played)
See you on friday! I might update quickly how to day went, but stats will have to wait.

Just one updated stat for now:
All fades: 37-36: +3,374 units

[Scrivero]

Looking like it will go 1-4 for circa -3 units.

Two things:
- This is fun to do but takes 1 hour each day. I dont really have that time right now. Really taking a toll on my sleeping hours.
- The idea is fun still but I think its time to re-evaluate the system.

See you on Thursday or on Friday!

[snider]

how much is a unit? royals and o's still have a shot

[Scrivero]

Damn post disappeared. Ya looking like a good ccomeback. Posted the unit size first but took it out as it not really needed for people to know how much I win or lose. Thanks for the qjestion still.

[snider]

I would just keep doing what you are if it's profitable . You won't win every night. You'll lose a little sleep if you're in the black in this business. It takes work

[Scrivero]

I would just keep doing what you are if it's profitable . You won't win every night. You'll lose a little sleep if you're in the black in this business. It takes work

Thanks for the support. You are right about the work for sure and about not winning each night. Neither would bother me if I knew to be investing in a system that brings profit in the long run. I will see what to do.

Tonight changed from likely -3 units to actually profiting +2 units. Exact stats on Friday.

Should not be results oriented but am of course happy to see our change for yesterday bringing us more positive than negative.

Teh biggest positive thing was that we got plays with more "trustworthiness" as our fade pool has now 2 times more people than before. The negative thing was that it takes now even more time than before to make the plays.

See you on Thursday!

[Scrivero]

RESULTS
5/9: 1 unit each:
betting (fading, how many played):
Royals SU (Rays, 3 people played) WIN
Mets SU (Giants, 3 people played) WIN
Orioles SU (Nationals, 4 people played) WIN
Orioles RL-1,5 (Nationals, 4 people played) LOSS
Indians/Blue Jays Over 8 (Under 8, 3 people played) LOSS

Evening: 3-2: +1,737 units

RECORD
SU: 24-20: +7,758 units
RL: 3-5: +0,445 units (people:w/l: 2: 0-1, 2*: 1-2, 3: 0-1 4: 1-1, 7: 1-0)
O/U: 12-15: -3,092 units
All fades: 40-38: +5,111 units

Record (w-l) of how many people played the play that I faded:
2 people played: 19-24
2* people played (difference of 2 people): 3-5
3 people played: 9-4
3* people played (difference of 3 people): 0-1
4 people played: 6-4
5 people played: 1-0
7 people played: 2-0

Tonight's plays coming soon (in 1 hour, as thats how long it takes).

[Scrivero]

5/11: 0,5 or 1 unit each, stated in the play:
betting (fading, how many played):
Yankees SU. 0,5 units (Astros, 4* people played)
Yankees RL-1,5. 0,5 units (Astros, 4* people played)
Rangers SU. 0,5 units. (Padres, 3* people played
Angels SU. 0,5 units. (Tigers, 3 people played)
Orioles/Nationals Under 8.5. 1 unit.(Over 8.5, 5 people played)

Notes:
- Took 1,5 hours to make the plays.
- I had 26 people in my fade pool for SU-plays. Only 6 people un O/U plays.
- If the O/U for tonight does not hit even with five playing in the pool for that one, then we will no longer do O/U in this system.

Good luck!

[snider]

good luck! Maybe your run lines would be next to cut? Not sure how they're doing for ya, but i'd keep an eye on those. Of course when they hit they throw bankrolls. I only say it because i think you invite suggestion. Square sides love plus money in this sport. I do not use the term square as demeaning. And now i see the RL is 3-5

[Scrivero]

Could very well be. I see that it is basically +-0 to have the SU and the RL but only makes the variance a bit bigger, as the RL hits less often but brings more money when it hits. I could instead just have 1 unit on SU instead of 0.5 on SU and 0.5 on RL.

I invite suggestion above all for sure. That is one of the only ways to move forward. I still very much dislike the fact that it takes 1-1.5 hours per day to make the plays. I think its too much for this system. Ideally a system takes time to do in the beginning, the first weeks but then it becomes almost automatic to make the plays and the time used drops tremendously, leaving room to have other systems.

Any ideas to make the process of making the plays faster are highly appreciated it. What I do now is:
- I copy all plays from my fade pool to a Word-document. So I open each thread separately and copy the plays. I then group the same games to see how many people played each side of the game. Then I simply count the difference and if it is 3, then I play it with 0,5 units. If it is 4 or more, then I play it with 1 unit.
- The thing that takes time is the copying and also checking which teams play against each other and looking for all the plays in that game and then grouping the plays. I know it sounds like one could do that in 20 minutes but it just takes time.

RESULTS
5/11: 0,5 or 1 unit each, stated in the play:
betting (fading, how many played):
Yankees SU. 0,5 units (Astros, 4* people played) LOSS
Yankees RL-1,5. 0,5 units (Astros, 4* people played) LOSS
Rangers SU. 0,5 units. (Padres, 3* people played) WIN
Angels SU. 0,5 units. (Tigers, 3 people played) LOSS
Orioles/Nationals Under 8.5. 1 unit.(Over 8.5, 5 people played) PTD

Evening: 1-3: -1,158 units

RECORD
SU: 25-21: +7,1 units
RL: 3-6: -0,055 units (people:w/l: 2: 0-1, 2*: 1-2, 3: 0-1 4: 1-1, 4*: 0-1, 7: 1-0)
O/U: 12-15: -3,092 units
All fades: 40-38: +3,953 units

Record (w-l) of how many people played the play that I faded:
2 people played: 19-24
2* people played (difference of 2 people): 3-5
3 people played: 9-5
3* people played (difference of 3 people): 1-1
4 people played: 6-4
4* people played (difference of 4 people): 0-2
5 people played: 1-0
7 people played: 2-0

I have a free day today but I have many things to do which take around 6 hours. Then I have a meeting in the evening, then a spa/sauna and I should also spend some time with the wife, so today's plays will not be checked by me.

BUT, I have a new system that I will backtest very quickly right now and check the plays for it for tonight. Lets see how long this takes.

[jeffchitown]

No system will ever work with out a mix of human factor.

[Scrivero]

Could be. Although the human factor in this one is to assess who to fade and who to not fade. Although that too is mostly numerical. But then again, what isnt. Your point is good to think about for sure.

I now backtested the new system I had in mind. Used the last 10 years to find the order of teams against each other. This one can not be tested without doing it manually, hence I only checkd quickly the last two nights for results. It went 9-9. I didnt check the odds. So that backtest doesnt really mean anything. I will still just start it tonight and do it for tonight instead of the fades, as I wont have time for them today or tomorrow or maybe SUnday even. This new system takes just minutes to make the plays. Lets see how long it takes actually. Will check the plays for tonight now.

[Scrivero]

Ok, it took 11 minutes, nice.

Plays are bolded. The stat in front of the game is a historical stat which might change if I continue this system, if I change the parameters (which I will most likely do if the forward testing seems to lose everything). Backtesting of results was very very small (results of last 2 nights, went 9-9)even though the historical data used to make those numbers was from the past 10 years. All play are SU and 0,5 units. "no game" is when the teams are dead even in my stats, hence we dont play either team.

0-0,4 Astros-Yankees
0,4-0,8 Mariners-Blue Jays
0-0,8 Twins-Indians
0,8-3,5 Athletics-Rangers
2-2 Mets-Brewers no game
2-2 Orioles-Royals no game
0-0 Pirates-Dbacks no game
0,4-6 Reds-Giants
3-0 Phillies-Nationals
3,5-3,5 Rays-Red Sox no game
0-0,4 Braves-Marlins
0,4-0,8 Padres-White Sox
2-2 Cubs-Cardinals no game
0-0,8 Dodgers-Rockies
3,5-2 Tigers-Angels

Again, Im not abandoning the fade system. I just dont have 1,5 hours each day during the next days to do it thats all. Making this new system too approx 1,5 and will take approx 11 minutes each day to get the plays so thats why we have this right now. I like testing things.

[Scrivero]

3-6. Pretty much even odds on average. Might be enough to fade this system. Making a minor adjustment for tonight, takes 5minutes but changes 50 % of the plays. And this is just me messing around, dont take this too seriously

[Scrivero]

0-0,4 Astros-Yankees +143
0,4-0,8 Mariners-Blue Jays odds pending
0-0,8 Twins-Indians +128
0,8-3,5 Athletics-Rangers no play
2-2 Mets-Brewers no play
2-2 Orioles-Royals no play
0-0 Pirates-Dbacks +137
0,4-6 Reds-Giants +125
3-0 Phillies-Nationals odds pending
3,5-3,5 Rays-Red Sox +213
0-0,4 Braves-Marlins +112
0,4-0,8 Padres-White Sox no play
2-2 Cubs-Cardinals no play
0-0,8 Dodgers-Rockies no play
3,5-2 Tigers-Angels no play

So basically I am now fading my own system and playing just the games that have +odds.

[Scrivero]

0,5 units each:

0-0,4 Astros-Yankees postponed
0,4-0,8 Mariners-Blue Jays +137
0-0,8 Twins-Indians +128
0,8-3,5 Athletics-Rangers +101
2-2 Mets-Brewers +104
2-2 Orioles-Royals +108
0-0 Pirates-Dbacks +137
0,4-6 Reds-Giants +125
3-0 Phillies-Nationals no play
3,5-3,5 Rays-Red Sox +213
0-0,4 Braves-Marlins +112
0,4-0,8 Padres-White Sox no play
2-2 Cubs-Cardinals no play
0-0,8 Dodgers-Rockies no play
3,5-2 Tigers-Angels no play

[Scrivero]

3-6 again, around -1 unit. Gonna think of another angle for 10 minutes and come up with a play. I am thinking of just getting one play with 1 units, or maybe 2 plays 1 unit each.

[Scrivero]

1 unit each:
Mets -144
Cubs -117
Tigers -121
Giants -140

[Yazworm91]

Scrivero I usually give you a good 12-18 hours notice to fade my plays so no excuses!

[Scrivero]

Scrivero I usually give you a good 12-18 hours notice to fade my plays so no excuses!

[Scrivero]

Wait, did I just try to cap games? Am I insane? I should have of course faded any capping that I come up with. But yea, 1-3 and loss of 2,3 units or so. I probably could do so that I could try to cap games or get plays or fade the plays I get and THEN fade whatever I get as a play. If taht makes any sense.

However, I have to put this on pause. I just got a job from another country and my time will be put into other things hence I will just blindly tail some people to keep the gambler in me satisfied. I might return to this thread some day again. Thank you all for following