**** MLB Totals ** 478-343 + 83 units Last Year ****

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • doubledime
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 04-22-09
    • 9751

    #456
    Originally posted by 2daBank
    Gl DD!
    Comment
    • barryt
      SBR High Roller
      • 01-23-13
      • 237

      #457
      Originally posted by doubledime
      Good morning,

      The Reliever Plays for Sunday:

      Wash/Atl over 8-120
      Mia/LAD over (no line yet)
      Col/Reds over 9.5
      Bost/Oak over 7.5 -115


      Good luck
      Just curious. Are u playing Mia/Lad no matter the line? (And also , Col/reds no matter the odd?)
      Comment
      • jeffchitown
        SBR MVP
        • 01-21-16
        • 1859

        #458
        I honestly think today will be going over for most games weather conditions pretty good at most parks and not the greatest lineup of pitchers today.
        Comment
        • doubledime
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 04-22-09
          • 9751

          #459
          Originally posted by barryt
          Just curious. Are u playing Mia/Lad no matter the line? (And also , Col/reds no matter the odd?)
          Mia/LAD is a play no matter what the line since these are Reliever Plays, based solely on the relief staff and no other factor. Therefore, the line is not a metric for handicapping the Reliever Plays. FYI, the Mia/LAD opened at 8.5.

          Col/Reds is still 9.5 at most books. If you can only get 10, I would find some other "outs" so you can shop around.
          Comment
          • doubledime
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-22-09
            • 9751

            #460
            Originally posted by jeffchitown
            I honestly think today will be going over for most games weather conditions pretty good at most parks and not the greatest lineup of pitchers today.
            I hope you're right. It certainly is nice weather in your town today.
            Comment
            • nfl_huskers
              SBR High Roller
              • 04-23-17
              • 120

              #461
              Originally posted by doubledime
              Good morning,

              Reliever Plays:

              Yesterday: 2-0
              YTD: 52-38

              Regular Plays:

              Yesterday 0
              YTD: 0-7

              Good luck with this system DD! It's a good complement to an UNDER system I'm playing.

              I decided to crunch some numbers using SDQL to see if I could come close to your results and get a better idea of how the system would have possibly performed prior to 2016. This analysis doesn't account for grabbing the best lines and your more thorough analysis of the starting pitchers and bullpens. This analysis also focuses entirely on the OVER.

              I came up with this query: ((p:SIP<5 and pp:SIP<7 and ppp:SIP<6) or (p:SIP<7 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6) or (p:SIP<6 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6)) and season and STDSERA>3.5

              Basically, it looks at the last three games for a team and analyzes instances where the starting pitcher pitched less than 5,6, or 7 innings. The most profitable "innings pitched" combinations for the OVER in 2016 are the three in this query. I also added a filter for the starting pitcher having a season-to-date ERA of larger than 3.5 in the current game, which could indicate the bullpen would be needed. Again, this was the best-case ERA to use for the OVER in 2016. There are definitely better pitcher stats than ERA, but again, just trying to get a quick idea of past performance.

              Results: Definitely shows the success for the OVER that happened in 2016 and the current success in 2017. Based on the previous years, it was definitely due for a turnaround. This query doesn't show profits for the OVER in any season from 2004-2015.

              Anyway, just something to consider if those query parameters are even remotely close to how this system picks OVER plays.
              Last edited by nfl_huskers; 05-21-17, 01:31 PM. Reason: Bad image
              Comment
              • nfl_huskers
                SBR High Roller
                • 04-23-17
                • 120

                #462
                Sorry for the lack of results in my previous post. An image I attached came across with a bunch of junk text. Will post the actually query results shortly. Didn't want to have all that garbage text cluttering the thread.
                Comment
                • nfl_huskers
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 04-23-17
                  • 120

                  #463
                  Here are the query results.

                  Season Games Record (Over) $OVER

                  2004 431 208-202-21 (50.7%) ($1,420)
                  2005 333 156-151-26 (50.8%) ($980)
                  2006 489 221-238-29 (48.1%) ($3,825)
                  2007 463 208-225-29 (48.0%) ($3,810)
                  2008 440 200-221-18 (47.5%) ($4,490)
                  2009 410 195-197-17 (49.7%) ($2,025)
                  2010 296 139-149-08 (48.3%) ($2,320)
                  2011 286 128-144-13 (47.1%) ($2,930)
                  2012 442 205-212-23 (49.2%) ($2,405)
                  2013 290 110-170-09 (39.3%) ($7,555)
                  2014 287 119-153-13 (43.8%) ($4,555)
                  2015 419 204-200-14 (50.5%) ($1,708)
                  2016 597 305-257-32 (54.3%) $2,332
                  2017 122 065-052-05 (55.6%) $826
                  Comment
                  • Click_Clack
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 09-05-12
                    • 219

                    #464
                    Bos/Oak at 8.5
                    Comment
                    • doubledime
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 04-22-09
                      • 9751

                      #465
                      Originally posted by nfl_huskers
                      Good luck with this system DD! It's a good complement to an UNDER system I'm playing.

                      I decided to crunch some numbers using SDQL to see if I could come close to your results and get a better idea of how the system would have possibly performed prior to 2016. This analysis doesn't account for grabbing the best lines and your more thorough analysis of the starting pitchers and bullpens. This analysis also focuses entirely on the OVER.

                      I came up with this query: ((p:SIP<5 and pp:SIP<7 and ppp:SIP<6) or (p:SIP<7 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6) or (p:SIP<6 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6)) and season and STDSERA>3.5

                      Basically, it looks at the last three games for a team and analyzes instances where the starting pitcher pitched less than 5,6, or 7 innings. The most profitable "innings pitched" combinations for the OVER in 2016 are the three in this query. I also added a filter for the starting pitcher having a season-to-date ERA of larger than 3.5 in the current game, which could indicate the bullpen would be needed. Again, this was the best-case ERA to use for the OVER in 2016. There are definitely better pitcher stats than ERA, but again, just trying to get a quick idea of past performance.

                      Results: Definitely shows the success for the OVER that happened in 2016 and the current success in 2017. Based on the previous years, it was definitely due for a turnaround. This query doesn't show profits for the OVER in any season from 2004-2015.

                      Anyway, just something to consider if those query parameters are even remotely close to how this system picks OVER plays.
                      I have to admit, I do not know that much about SDQL but would like to learn more about it and how to use it.

                      If you ever come across anything that can improve the winning % of these plays, feel free to post your findings.
                      Comment
                      • doubledime
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-22-09
                        • 9751

                        #466
                        Originally posted by Click_Clack
                        Bos/Oak at 8.5
                        Fortunately, it did not matter.
                        Comment
                        • nfl_huskers
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 04-23-17
                          • 120

                          #467
                          Originally posted by doubledime
                          I have to admit, I do not know that much about SDQL but would like to learn more about it and how to use it.

                          If you ever come across anything that can improve the winning % of these plays, feel free to post your findings.
                          Will do. It looks like many of your picks already focus on higher totals, so maybe this is old news, but it looks like the best results come from games where the total is at least 9. ROI falls off sharply for totals under 9. Also, when analyzing the three previous games, best results come when all three previous starters didn't complete six innings. ROI starts falling off if any of those three previous starters completed six innings or more.

                          p:SIP<6 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6 and total>=9 and season

                          Number of plays gets reduced significantly though. 2016 results would have been 94-55-14 (63.1%) with that filtering, which is an ROI of 19.2% and 34 units profit on 163 games. This year would be 19-13-1, which is an ROI of 13.8%, and a similar winning percentage to your current results.

                          That's using the SDQL database's lines. You probably could have done better based on the lines I've seen in this thread.
                          Good luck the rest of this season. The system looks to be continuing with last year's positive momentum.
                          Comment
                          • DU46
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 10-09-09
                            • 368

                            #468
                            Another great day, thanks DD!
                            Comment
                            • juicername
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 10-14-15
                              • 6906

                              #469
                              Originally posted by nfl_huskers
                              Will do. It looks like many of your picks already focus on higher totals, so maybe this is old news, but it looks like the best results come from games where the total is at least 9. ROI falls off sharply for totals under 9. Also, when analyzing the three previous games, best results come when all three previous starters didn't complete six innings. ROI starts falling off if any of those three previous starters completed six innings or more.

                              p:SIP<6 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6 and total>=9 and season

                              Number of plays gets reduced significantly though. 2016 results would have been 94-55-14 (63.1%) with that filtering, which is an ROI of 19.2% and 34 units profit on 163 games. This year would be 19-13-1, which is an ROI of 13.8%, and a similar winning percentage to your current results.

                              That's using the SDQL database's lines. You probably could have done better based on the lines I've seen in this thread.
                              Good luck the rest of this season. The system looks to be continuing with last year's positive momentum.
                              Thanks for posting the queries, I've been using more simplified "reliever angle" queries for some time, but will probably use the one you posted plus the over 9 filter going forward. I believe DD's system uses relieve pitches thrown, but it should correlate fairly well with innings pitched for obvious reasons.
                              Comment
                              • doubledime
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 04-22-09
                                • 9751

                                #470
                                Originally posted by juicername
                                Thanks for posting the queries, I've been using more simplified "reliever angle" queries for some time, but will probably use the one you posted plus the over 9 filter going forward. I believe DD's system uses relieve pitches thrown, but it should correlate fairly well with innings pitched for obvious reasons.
                                I look at the following before I post any Reliever Play:

                                1. How many pitches the relievers have thrown the last 1 day and and last 3 days.
                                2. How many relievers were used the last 1 day and 3 days.
                                3. The rating of the closers.
                                4. The average pitch count of the starters. (This should be an indication of when the relievers will be entering the game.)
                                5. ERA of Bullpen

                                Note: Last year when I started the Reliever Plays, I was using innings pitched by relievers, but morphed over to number of pitches since it seems to be a better indicator.

                                I encourage anyone that has any other filters that are helping the winning %, to post their findings.

                                DD
                                Last edited by doubledime; 05-22-17, 09:34 AM.
                                Comment
                                • doubledime
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 04-22-09
                                  • 9751

                                  #471
                                  Good morning,

                                  Reliever Plays:

                                  Yesterday: 3-1
                                  YTD: 55-39

                                  Regular Plays:

                                  Yesterday 0
                                  YTD: 0-7
                                  Comment
                                  • Catchn_Picks
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-02-11
                                    • 2984

                                    #472
                                    Originally posted by doubledime
                                    I look at the following before I post any Reliever Play:

                                    1. How many pitches the relievers have thrown the last 1 day and and last 3 days.
                                    2. How many relievers were used the last 1 day and 3 days.
                                    3. The rating of the closers.
                                    4. The average pitch count of the starters. (This should be an indication of when the relievers will be entering the game.)

                                    Note: Last year when I started the Reliever Plays, I was using innings pitched by relievers, but morphed over to number of pitches since it seems to be a better indicator.

                                    I encourage anyone that has any other filters that are helping the winning %, to post their findings.

                                    DD
                                    Thank you for posting this DD. It is generous to discuss the level of complexity behind the picks. BOL always and GLTA!
                                    Comment
                                    • doubledime
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 04-22-09
                                      • 9751

                                      #473
                                      Originally posted by DU46
                                      Another great day, thanks DD!
                                      Thanks DU
                                      Comment
                                      • doubledime
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 04-22-09
                                        • 9751

                                        #474
                                        Originally posted by Catchn_Picks
                                        Thank you for posting this DD. It is generous to discuss the level of complexity behind the picks. BOL always and GLTA!
                                        That's what this forum should be about, helping all win!!
                                        Comment
                                        • doubledime
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 04-22-09
                                          • 9751

                                          #475
                                          A while back, someone asked if there was any correlation between relievers and win/loss outcome. I have been looking at it for a couple of weeks and during that short time, there seems that that may be possible. I stress may! The good news is that this system produces a lot of dogs (occasionally a big fave) since it is NOT based on the starters.

                                          I also have been tracking the VMI (Visual Memory Index) of teams, and that is showing promise over the last week. If you google this you can read more about it. I have had some contact with the developer of it, and IMO it's really a different approach.

                                          Both are very small sample times, so I am hesitant to post these, but I will, so we can all track them together.

                                          Keep in mind, I am not good at picking sides with traditional handicapping methods. I know my limitations. However, these two systems look at it from a different perspective, so I thought I would pursue it further.

                                          Please do not blinding play these, just yet!!!!!


                                          I will be rounding the lines up/down to the nearest 5 for easier calculating and posting the results the next day

                                          Reliever Sides:

                                          Phili
                                          Balt
                                          LAA
                                          Det
                                          Clev


                                          VMI Sides:

                                          W Sox

                                          Good luck
                                          Comment
                                          • SAX27
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 07-03-15
                                            • 1324

                                            #476
                                            Thanks DD, always enjoyed your Reliever Plays!! Any plays for tonight?
                                            Comment
                                            • doubledime
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 04-22-09
                                              • 9751

                                              #477
                                              Originally posted by SAX27
                                              Thanks DD, always enjoyed your Reliever Plays!! Any plays for tonight?
                                              Almost forgot to post. Thanks
                                              Comment
                                              • doubledime
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 04-22-09
                                                • 9751

                                                #478
                                                The Reliever Play for Monday:

                                                KC/NYY over 8

                                                Good luck
                                                Comment
                                                • PokeyAristocrat
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 01-08-17
                                                  • 261

                                                  #479
                                                  Always helping others to make money and gain knowledge. You the real MVP, DD!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Robin Shot
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 03-25-17
                                                    • 34

                                                    #480
                                                    he's the best capper this site has ever had. troll proof and a gentleman.
                                                    Originally posted by PokeyAristocrat
                                                    Always helping others to make money and gain knowledge. You the real MVP, DD!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • doubledime
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 04-22-09
                                                      • 9751

                                                      #481
                                                      Originally posted by PokeyAristocrat
                                                      Always helping others to make money and gain knowledge. You the real MVP, DD!
                                                      Thanks Pokey
                                                      Comment
                                                      • doubledime
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 04-22-09
                                                        • 9751

                                                        #482
                                                        Originally posted by Robin Shot
                                                        he's the best capper this site has ever had. troll proof and a gentleman.
                                                        Thanks Robin
                                                        Comment
                                                        • doubledime
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 04-22-09
                                                          • 9751

                                                          #483
                                                          Good morning,

                                                          Reliever Plays:

                                                          Yesterday: 0-1
                                                          YTD: 55-40

                                                          Regular Plays:

                                                          Yesterday 0
                                                          YTD: 0-7
                                                          Comment
                                                          • doubledime
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 04-22-09
                                                            • 9751

                                                            #484
                                                            Good morning,

                                                            Well, the Reliever Sides did not go so well yesterday

                                                            1-4 -3.5 units

                                                            VMI:

                                                            0-1 -1 unit
                                                            Comment
                                                            • doubledime
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 04-22-09
                                                              • 9751

                                                              #485
                                                              Good afternoon,

                                                              The Reliever Plays for Tuesday:

                                                              Min/Balt over 9
                                                              LAA.TB over 8.5


                                                              Reliever Sides:

                                                              Det (big dog)
                                                              Clev (big fav)


                                                              VMI:

                                                              Seat
                                                              Oak


                                                              See post #475 for explanation of Reliever Sides and VMI

                                                              Good luck
                                                              Comment
                                                              • barryt
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 01-23-13
                                                                • 237

                                                                #486
                                                                Hi dd
                                                                i looked at your record and decided to tail your selections. So far so good .tx
                                                                Today I passed on min/ Balt as the line had jumped to 9.5 1.88 I coulda bet 9 but at 1.7 .
                                                                i passed. Just wondering with your experience what you would have done with this situation. Not critical either way as it's a long season.
                                                                tx
                                                                barryt
                                                                Comment
                                                                • doubledime
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 04-22-09
                                                                  • 9751

                                                                  #487
                                                                  Good morning,

                                                                  Reliever Plays:

                                                                  Yesterday: 0-2
                                                                  YTD: 55-42

                                                                  Regular Plays:

                                                                  Yesterday 0
                                                                  YTD: 0-7
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • doubledime
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 04-22-09
                                                                    • 9751

                                                                    #488
                                                                    Originally posted by barryt
                                                                    Hi dd
                                                                    i looked at your record and decided to tail your selections. So far so good .tx
                                                                    Today I passed on min/ Balt as the line had jumped to 9.5 1.88 I coulda bet 9 but at 1.7 .
                                                                    i passed. Just wondering with your experience what you would have done with this situation. Not critical either way as it's a long season.
                                                                    tx
                                                                    barryt
                                                                    It's good you did. When it gets that pricey it loses value.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • doubledime
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 04-22-09
                                                                      • 9751

                                                                      #489
                                                                      Good morning,

                                                                      Reliever Sides:

                                                                      Yesterday: 1-1


                                                                      2-5 -3.5 units

                                                                      VMI:

                                                                      Yesterday:

                                                                      0-2

                                                                      0-3 -3.25 units
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • doubledime
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 04-22-09
                                                                        • 9751

                                                                        #490
                                                                        Good morning,

                                                                        The Reliever Plays for Wednesday:

                                                                        SD/Mets over 9
                                                                        Mia/Oak over 9


                                                                        Reliever Sides:

                                                                        Atl
                                                                        Bost
                                                                        Det

                                                                        No VMI Plays today

                                                                        See post #475 for explanation of Reliever Sides and VMI


                                                                        Good luck
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...