This game involves 2 strong offenses, 2 iffy starting pitchers, and a mid-range total in a park where runs can pile up in a hurry.
Add it all up and there is value on the side of the over. The Mets' offense doesn't need an introduction. It is strong, balanced, and productive. The Mets have also been hitting particularly well of late, having scored 8 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games.
While they can be held down at times by quality pitching or other unfavorable offensive circumstances, facing Wandy Rodriguez and the Houston bullpen at Minute Maid does not present anything of the sort. Rodriguez rarely leaves a game without having given up at least 4 runs and that is often against significantly inferior lineups to the one he will likely face tonight. Every inning will be a challenge for him, and he is not likely to be able to string together too many goose eggs without an offensive explosion occurring.
Behind him, the Houston bullpen is reasonable, but also quite hittable, and it would be surprising if they didn't yield further scoring.
On the other side, the Houston offense against Mets' starter Tom Glavine is likely to produce at least a modest amount of runs. Houston has some big bats in their lineup as well, and the threat of the long ball is often looming with them. Houston has had very productive offensive games recently, at times explosively so.
Glavine is returning from a 2-week layoff due to injury, and even though he is crafty, smart and disciplined, he is still a 40-year-old finesse pitcher coming back from an injury late in the season. He doesn't dominate at all anymore, and a top-notch start here is unlikely. His recipe for success this year has been to have a decent start giving up 3 or 4 runs, and let the Mets' lineup and bullpen take care of getting the win.
In general, while the Mets have a strong lineup, they play half of their games in pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium. This causes their offense to be underestimated when they go on the road into more offensively friendly environs, and that has led to a 64% (41-23) season-long over trend for the Mets on the road.
There are many ways this game could clear the posted total, making the over a significantly better than 50% proposition.
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Mets/Astros Over 9.5
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