MLB - Sunday, 7/10/16

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Sunday

Reds +152 (Heritage)
Yankees +128 (Bookmaker)
Rays / Red Sox UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Rockies -1.5 +110 (Heritage)


YTD: 254-275-13, -13.94

[LT Profits]

Boatload of 60%ers:

Toronto 60% (-150)
Boston 65% (-186)
Cubs 62% (-163)
Baltimore 64% (-178)
Houston 64% (-178)
Texas 63% (-170)
Dodgers 63% (-170)
Colorado 66% (-194)
San Francisco 70% (-233)

[eddycash]

Why reds?

[Brock Landers]

Broken model still spitting out unders LOL

[LT Profits]

Why reds?

Nice edge in starting pitcher.

[JayDr3am]

4 MLB Plays Sunday

Reds +152 (Heritage)
Yankees +128 (Bookmaker)
Rays / Red Sox UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Rockies -1.5 +110 (Heritage)


YTD: 254-275-13, -13.94

absolute gem. BOL today LT

[trytrytry]

like houston today various reasons,

thanks for the thread LT

[mikefan1034]

Why reds?

Why question it just fade it. He's not turning this around

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Don't underestimate LT; baseball-wise, he has a proven track record.

[newbie64]

Nice edge in starting pitcher.

I don't see it

[vegaschulo]

Broken model still spitting out unders LOL

Lol I got killed by his cubs under pick yesterday..damm and I hate unders

[LT Profits]

I don't see it

Reed is not a superstar or anything like that, he has a 4.24 xFIP. But that is still 5 runs lower than the ridiculous ERA that is skewed by an abnormally high .362 BABIP allowed and abnormally low 54.0% strand rate. The kid is averaging 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings.

Koehler on the other hand has the sixth worst xFIP in the Major Leagues among qualified staters at 5.06, making him one of only nine regular starters with an xFIP of 5.00 or worse. Of those nine, Koehler has the second best ERA at 4.40, so regression is a bitch.

[JayDr3am]

Reed is not a superstar or anything like that, he has a 4.24 xFIP. But that is still 5 runs lower than the ridiculous ERA that is skewed by an abnormally high .362 BABIP allowed and abnormally low 54.0% strand rate. The kid is averaging 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings.

Koehler on the other hand has the sixth worst xFIP in the Major Leagues among qualified staters at 5.06, making him one of only nine regular starters with an xFIP of 5.00 or worse. Of those nine, Koehler has the second best ERA at 4.40, so regression is a bitch.

all of this equates to o8.5 +100 .. koehler is known to get ripped a new one

[PorkChop]

Lt - Thoughts on the totals in Arlington and Chicago?

Very much leaning under on both. Minn/Tex U 10.5 / ATL/CHW U 9.5.

But probably death wish.

[LT Profits]

Boatload of 60%ers:

Toronto 60% (-150)

After taking out Encarnacion and Martin, Toronto drops to 57% (-133), making Detroit just about playable.

[LT Profits]

all of this equates to o8.5 +100 .. koehler is known to get ripped a new one

But the +152 is better value with the better pitcher.

[newbie64]

Reed is not a superstar or anything like that, he has a 4.24 xFIP. But that is still 5 runs lower than the ridiculous ERA that is skewed by an abnormally high .362 BABIP allowed and abnormally low 54.0% strand rate. The kid is averaging 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings.

Koehler on the other hand has the sixth worst xFIP in the Major Leagues among qualified staters at 5.06, making him one of only nine regular starters with an xFIP of 5.00 or worse. Of those nine, Koehler has the second best ERA at 4.40, so regression is a bitch.

Also don't forget Reed is averaging 10.2 runs per 9 innings i just don't see the edge here

[Brock Landers]

Reds LOL

Let's pump up a garbage team ON the road with a disgusting pitching staff

[JayDr3am]

But the +152 is better value with the better pitcher.

agreed, reed is no gem but i can see him holding up his end of the bargain. BOL

[Brock Landers]

Who gives a rat's ass about the starters in the Reds game, talk about the bullpen which will get a majority of the work!

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Additions

8 MLB Plays Sunday

Tigers +140 (DSI)
Reds +152 (Heritage)
Yankees +128 (Bookmaker)
Rays / Red Sox UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Braves +153 (Heritage)
Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 -115 (Bookmaker)
Athletics / Astros UNDER 4.5 -110 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Rockies -1.5 +110 (Heritage)

[LT Profits]

Who gives a rat's ass about the starters in the Reds game, talk about the bullpen which will get a majority of the work!

I will take my chances with +152 with the better starting pitcher every single time. If starters pitch true to form, lead should be big enough for Cincy pen not to blow it.

[LT Profits]

Also don't forget Reed is averaging 10.2 runs per 9 innings

What does this even mean? Are you saying he is allowing 10.2 runs per game including unearned runs? If so, that is meaningless for the reasons I already explained. The ridiculous BABIP and strand rate will not continue.

[funnyb25]

Last day before the break...need that action eh? lol

GL

[jay89]

8 MLB Plays Sunday

Tigers +140 (DSI)
Reds +152 (Heritage)
Yankees +128 (Bookmaker)
Rays / Red Sox UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Braves +153 (Heritage)
Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 -115 (Bookmaker)
Athletics / Astros UNDER 4.5 -110 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Rockies -1.5 +110 (Heritage)

Tigers is a good play, with Dickey on the mound and no Edwin or Martin
On the marlins here...but can't expect bullpen help today (no rodney, no ramos?)
Yankees-Indians is tough, on the under here for the half (is the Yankees big three available today??)
Rays/sox : on the first half over 4.5
Braves / WS : on both sides over 2 and 3 first half
Athletics/Astros : on the over for both sides, 1.5 and 2.5 first half
Phils/Rockies : on the Under 7.5 first half (surprised with this line to be honest)

[newbie64]

What does this even mean? Are you saying he is allowing 10.2 runs per game including unearned runs? If so, that is meaningless for the reasons I already explained. The ridiculous BABIP and strand rate will not continue.

I am betting on the teams to score the most runs not on the pitchers who have the most strikeouts

[mikefan1034]

Tigers is a good play, with Dickey on the mound and no Edwin or Martin
On the marlins here...but can't expect bullpen help today (no rodney, no ramos?)
Yankees-Indians is tough, on the under here for the half (is the Yankees big three available today??)
Rays/sox : on the first half over 4.5
Braves / WS : on both sides over 2 and 3 first half
Athletics/Astros : on the over for both sides, 1.5 and 2.5 first half
Phils/Rockies : on the Under 7.5 first half (surprised with this line to be honest)

All 3 Yankees aren't available today

[Brock Landers]

I will take my chances with +152 with the better starting pitcher every single time. If starters pitch true to form, lead should be big enough for Cincy pen not to blow it.

You would not find 2 out of 10 who would say Cincy has the better starting pitcher in this game, your use of "stats" has blinded you.

[LT Profits]

I am betting on the teams to score the most runs not on the pitchers who have the most strikeouts

Here is a tip for all guys too lazy to learn modeling and sabermetrics: The single most important "common" stat in regards to being predictive is strikeout-to-walk ratio. So when you say "I am betting on the teams to score the most runs not on the pitchers who have the most strikeouts", my response is the pitchers with more strikeouts, especially those striking out more than one per inning, tend to allow the fewer runs.

[funnyb25]

You would not find 2 out of 10 who would say Cincy has the better starting pitcher in this game, your use of "stats" has blinded you.

When you have 2 garbage pitchers why not take the +150 blind? thats prolly what this is..

[LT Profits]

Yankees-Indians is tough, on the under here for the half (is the Yankees big three available today??)

All 3 Yankees aren't available today

Eovaldi could get a three-inning save if necessary, even if they put him back in the starting rotation thanks to the four-day break.

[LT Profits]

You would not find 2 out of 10 who would say Cincy has the better starting pitcher in this game, your use of "stats" has blinded you.

And you have no concept of sabermetics and value, just a quick check of FIP and xFIP without digging any deeper should be enough to show Reed is better. Then again, most of the league is better than Koehler (refer to sixth worst xFIP in majors).

[funnyb25]

And you have no concept of sabermetics and value, just a quick check of FIP and xFIP without digging any deeper should be enough to show Reed is better. Then again, most of the league is better than Koehler (refer to sixth worst xFIP in majors).

Why isnt the OVER a play?

[marley33]

Well looks like the over is the play then. Light bulb on

[LT Profits]

Why isnt the OVER a play?

Reed actually grades out above average, model total is only 8.8.