MLB - Sunday, 7/10/16

[LT Profits]

Reed actually grades out above average, model total is only 8.8.

Should say very slightly above average. Model rate him a 98, so 2% better than average. Koehler is one of the worst at 121.

[LT Profits]

And while we were talking, Reds became scalpable at Pinny with Miami now -144.

[Brock Landers]

And you have no concept of sabermetics and value, just a quick check of FIP and xFIP without digging any deeper should be enough to show Reed is better. Then again, most of the league is better than Koehler (refer to sixth worst xFIP in majors).

So when you lose this play, will you say "damn, the stats said I should have won"?

[Altern8]

What do you think of the Over/Under in Tor/Det? Messed up yesterday with the over on LA had it in a parlay with Brock Lesnar

[funnyb25]

Should say very slightly above average. Model rate him a 98, so 2% better than average. Koehler is one of the worst at 121.

Very slightly? is this similar to smallish big? lol

[LT Profits]

So when you lose this play, will you say "damn, the stats said I should have won"?

I already have the best of it as I have +152 and Miami is now -144 (Reds +133). So I already did my job. So if i lose this play, so be it, but over time it is a winning play.

I also mentioned last week that it seems I am beating the closing line at a simialar rate this year as I did last year. So using the exact same approach with a seemingly good model, you don't just go from +93 one year to -13 the next, so I am expecting a big second half this year.

[LT Profits]

Very slightly? is this similar to smallish big? lol

Whatever you want to call 2% better than average pitcher.

[newbie64]

Reed actually grades out above average, model total is only 8.8.

Sure lets all follow THE MODEL and be in the red

[LT Profits]

Sure lets all follow THE MODEL and be in the red

Are you new here?

[Brock Landers]

I already have the best of it as I have +152 and Miami is now -144 (Reds +133). So I already did my job. So if i lose this play, so be it, but over time it is a winning play.

I also mentioned last week that it seems I am beating the closing line at a simialar rate this year as I did last year. So using the exact same approach with a seemingly good model, you don't just go from +93 one year to -13 the next, so I am expecting a big second half this year.

So the results of the game are irrelevant, you are happy that an inefficient market came out with a lower line than you got.

Ok, the next time you get paid off on a losing ticket, let me know

[newbie64]

Are you new here?

Just watch your better pitcher and see the edge

[JayDr3am]

I already have the best of it as I have +152 and Miami is now -144 (Reds +133). So I already did my job. So if i lose this play, so be it, but over time it is a winning play.

I also mentioned last week that it seems I am beating the closing line at a simialar rate this year as I did last year. So using the exact same approach with a seemingly good model, you don't just go from +93 one year to -13 the next, so I am expecting a big second half this year.

i was just fixing to the say that.. you did get the best of reds line which is all that matters in the end.

[LT Profits]

So the results of the game are irrelevant, you are happy that an inefficient market came out with a lower line than you got.

Ok, the next time you get paid off on a losing ticket, let me know

MLB is an EFFICIENT market, as are all major sports.

[Brock Landers]

i was just fixing to the say that.. you did get the best of reds line which is all that matters in the end.

Funny, I thought the name of the game was cashing winners .

You can also tell me about the next time you try to cash a losing ticket

[Brock Landers]

MLB is an EFFICIENT market, as are all major sports.

Nonsense, line moves are wrong just as often as they are right

[LT Profits]

Nonsense, line moves are wrong just as often as they are right

Totally False, but than again, you don't care about odds anyway and thus will never be a long-term winner.

Carry on.

[Brock Landers]

Totally False, but than again, you don't care about odds anyway and thus will never be a long-term winner.

Carry on.

Prove to me where your statement is correct

[JayDr3am]

Funny, I thought the name of the game was cashing winners .

You can also tell me about the next time you try to cash a losing ticket

LOL funny guy.. cashing winners is the name of the game brock... but if you are a everyday/weekly wagerer and you flat bet the same amount, it is essential to get a bang for your buck sort of speak. its like when you go grocery shopping and you try getting the best deals on cereal or steaks packages or going to best buy on black friday

[funnyb25]

LT it's good to see you fired up today! Lets go!

[funnyb25]

LT has 8 plays today, but only 5 in contest... i get the first 5 innings wouldnt be in the contest, but where are the other 2?

[CanuckG]

Brock who is down 300k lifetime should be the last to talk

[mikefan1034]

LT has 8 plays today, but only 5 in contest... i get the first 5 innings wouldnt be in the contest, but where are the other 2?

He's down 42 units lol

[mikefan1034]

Brock
Landers is the biggest joke going. He's worst then Lakerboy and twizzle combined. Guy looks like a straight hamburger

[funnyb25]

Brock
Landers is the biggest joke going. He's worst then Lakerboy and twizzle combined. Guy looks like a straight hamburger

show me pic

[LT Profits]

Prove to me where your statement is correct

The onus would be on someone to prove that it is NOT efficient. You start with the assumption that a major sport with a big betting limits is efficient.

[LT Profits]

LT has 8 plays today, but only 5 in contest... i get the first 5 innings wouldnt be in the contest, but where are the other 2?

The two Under plays were -125 in contest so I passed.

[LT Profits]

By the way guys, I am now about one hour away from the Poconos, once we arrive I will most likely be offline until Thursday.

[Brock Landers]

Brock who is down 300k lifetime should be the last to talk

300K huh

Where the fuckk you getting that?

[Brock Landers]

The onus would be on someone to prove that it is NOT efficient. You start with the assumption that a major sport with a big betting limits is efficient.

good answer....exactly what i would expect someone to say who knows he can't back it up

[funnyb25]

By the way guys, I am now about one hour away from the Poconos, once we arrive I will most likely be offline until Thursday.

You are in PA? Is this the reason for the Nola love?

[LT Profits]

good answer....exactly what i would expect someone to say who knows he can't back it up

Because I don't need to. It is assumed efficient unless proven otherwise. Give it a shot.

Besides, just look at my results last year, games where I beat the closer by a normal amount were over +100 units. The anomaly was plays where I CRUSHED the closer by 40 points + had a losing record, but overall still a great record when beating closers. And I finished with around 1300 total plays.

[JayDr3am]

By the way guys, I am now about one hour away from the Poconos, once we arrive I will most likely be offline until Thursday.

hell yeah make sure you hit the zip lines LT! have fun my man

[LT Profits]

You are in PA? Is this the reason for the Nola love?

I am in PA but has nothing to do with Nola. I don't even get Phillies on TV, blacked out on DirecTV and their local station not carried.

[funnyb25]

Why isnt the OVER a play?

Reed actually grades out above average, model total is only 8.8.

LOL...OVER was easy...Reed...eh...next time..

[marley33]

While all this arguing has gone on I have already hit my over 9 in the Reds Marlins game. Carry-on...

#SnappinNecksCashinChecks