MLB - Sunday, 5/29/16

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Sunday

Red Sox / Blue Jays UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)
Reds / Brewers OVER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Giants / Rockies UNDER 10.5 -110 (Heritage)
Braves -123 (Heritage)


YTD: 145-150-6, +2.88

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Washington 66% (-194)
Milwaukee 60% (-150)
White Sox 62% (-163)
Cubs 71% (-245)
Oakland 61% (-156)
Seattle 61% (-156)
San Francisco 65% (-186)
Dodgers 73% (-270)

[dirtycash66]

4 MLB Plays Sunday

Red Sox / Blue Jays UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)
Reds / Brewers OVER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Giants / Rockies UNDER 10.5 -110 (Heritage)
Braves -123 (Heritage)


YTD: 145-150-6, +2.88

Nooo don't go back into the red!!!

[LT Profits]

Nooo don't go back into the red!!!

I'll try not to.

[gpet1984]

LT I guess our question about why the Mets line dropped so much with no reason was shown last night. Someone took a good guess he was getting ejected or new what was going to happen (maybe the ump )

[jjgold]

Braves I never take

Miami a play on my sheet

Red Sox's under.....that knuckle baller scares me does he really have much left?

[LT Profits]

Braves I never take

One of the rare times when there is a pitching mismatch in their favor. Teheran is legit and could start for any team, Koehler is a mess walking too many people.

[BrewCrew1]

What's your thoughts on Baltimore? Seems like the price is ligit with Tillman on the mound.

[44 Mag]

How does Milwaukee make it to the 60% club ?

[funnyb25]

How does Milwaukee make it to the 60% club ?

His model loves Nelson...and the Reds have won 1 game in the past 3 weeks....and that was yesterday..lol

[LT Profits]

How does Milwaukee make it to the 60% club ?

Line is just about same as model number, so no need to worry about it. But yeah, Nelson grades out a lot better than Finnegan.

[LT Profits]

What's your thoughts on Baltimore? Seems like the price is ligit with Tillman on the mound.

Baltimore 56% (-127)

Tillman is not that good though, I would love to fade him as a road favorite except that Clevinger grades out worse.

[RavensFan2k3]

Baltimore 56% (-127)

Tillman is not that good though, I would love to fade him as a road favorite except that Clevinger grades out worse.

Excuse me?

[CappinTerp]

I think Tillman is doing fine 6-1 and a 1.77 ERA last 3.May even bet Balt. only thing is that the Tribe are hot winning 9 of last 13.

[juicername]

I think Tillman is doing fine 6-1 and a 1.77 ERA last 3.May even bet Balt. only thing is that the Tribe are hot winning 9 of last 13.

He has a xFIP of 4.07 and is overachieving big time right now. That being said, I like to back pitchers when they're hot and I'm on Baltimore today.

[Redscot]

I think Tillman is doing fine 6-1 and a 1.77 ERA last 3.May even bet Balt. only thing is that the Tribe are hot winning 9 of last 13.

He's definitely been better but not to the degree his era suggests. Has an 80% strand rate which isn't sustainable, his hr/fb rate is down by half his career numbers even though he is giving up more fb (fly balls) than last year. one area he has improved a lot in his the % of soft contact being made against him thus far 24% (#9 amongst qualified starters), thanks to an improved cutter. As an add his swinging strike rate is up 3% over last couple of years....

[RavensFan2k3]

LT is Eovaldi better than Odorizzi?

[LT Profits]

I think Tillman is doing fine 6-1 and a 1.77 ERA last 3.May even bet Balt. only thing is that the Tribe are hot winning 9 of last 13.

Exactly why I want to fade him because he is not that good and should eventually regress to his 4.07 xFIP, which is basically what he is. It is just that Clevinger blows too so today is not the spot to fade. But if Tillman faces just an everage pitcher in the near future, he is very fade-able.

[LT Profits]

Excuse me?

I meant I would love to fade Tillman because he is not as good as his record.

[LT Profits]

LT is Eovaldi better than Odorizzi?

Yes. But I only get Yankees 54% (-117).

[juicername]

He's definitely been better but not to the degree his era suggests. Has an 80% strand rate which isn't sustainable, his hr/fb rate is down by half his career numbers even though he is giving up more fb (fly balls) than last year. one area he has improved a lot in his the % of soft contact being made against him thus far 24% (#9 amongst qualified starters), thanks to an improved cutter. As an add his swinging strike rate is up 3% over last couple of years....

Wow, that's some great insight, nice.

[RavensFan2k3]

I meant I would love to fade Tillman because he is not as good as his record.

I know what you meant lol I was just saying don't bad talk my O's! Lol

[RavensFan2k3]

Yes. But I only get Yankees 54% (-117).

Really? I guess I should have asked before I bet Tampa

[Redscot]

Wow, that's some great insight, nice.

This is some of the stuff that goes into the xfip and siera numbers, just thought it good to highlight them so people don't think those numbers are just some voodoo.

[CappinTerp]

I know this one will get a lot of banter.....When I cap my games, and I have been doing this for a long time and this does not make me a good capper. But I do not look at any saber-metrics when I cap..no xfip,WAR, siera or what ever. From past experiences ( for me ) too much info. can be a bad thing.

[Redscot]

I know this one will get a lot of banter.....When I cap my games, and I have been doing this for a long time and this does not make me a good capper. But I do not look at any saber-metrics when I cap..no xfip,WAR,or what ever. From past experiences ( for me ) too much info. can be a bad thing.

I evaluate by eye more than numbers Cap. I hear you on the "too many chef's spoil the soup " . But on the other hand to ignore the advanced numbers completely puts you at a disadvantage imo. MLB is big business, Books are big business, if they are incorporating them it is hard to discount that they have value......how much is definitely the key.

[RavensFan2k3]

I know this one will get a lot of banter.....When I cap my games, and I have been doing this for a long time and this does not make me a good capper. But I do not look at any saber-metrics when I cap..no xfip,WAR, siera or what ever. From past experiences ( for me ) too much info. can be a bad thing.

I agree with this. I turn to those fine details when evaluating a pitcher who I feel is being overvalued due to recent success or under valued due to recent struggles

[Nateboogy]

What does model say about Astros today? They are playing good and Fister has been performing well.

[gpet1984]

Doug Fister is terrible. Rule of thumb should be to fade him every game

[PorkChop]

Anyone like Indians/Orioles U 9 (-120)

[gpet1984]

SD at +105 is very tempting

I actually took o9 +105 in bal/cle (hope im on right end )

[RavensFan2k3]

Doug Fister is terrible. Rule of thumb should be to fade him every game

if Doug Fister is terrible as you put it, who else is terrible in your opinion

[gpet1984]

When I say terrible I meant he gets too much respect. What numbers make him good. Hes a Tillman type guy to me. There are way worse pitchers in the league of course. Maybe I made a bit of a rash statement.

[Redscot]

The Cubs Phillies o/u has been all over the f-ing place. Curious where you peg that one LT?

[CappinTerp]

I evaluate by eye more than numbers Cap. I hear you on the "too many chef's spoil the soup " . But on the other hand to ignore the advanced numbers completely puts you at a disadvantage imo. MLB is big business, Books are big business, if they are incorporating them it is hard to discount that they have value......how much is definitely the key.

I will tell you,from what I read from you, I'am glad you are open minded.Yea ,well aware what a big biz sports betting is.Think about this: for what ever reason,no one will be able to bet any NFL games next season..there would be Billions on $ lost,not only for the NFL,but also sports bars,restaurants,mom& pop places ect. Anyway back to the point...for myself I just can not imagine how one can calibrate all this info into a reason as to why bet a game. I don't think this puts me at any disadvantage,because I do put a lot of stock into were the books open their price on any given game, and into the technical analyst of price movements,realizing that there is " no free lunch in Vegas"......BOL