MLB - Sunday, 5/29/16

[gpet1984]

the line is jumping alot to it went down to +169 at one point then shot to +190 the next minute on pinny

[LT Profits]

I know this one will get a lot of banter.....When I cap my games, and I have been doing this for a long time and this does not make me a good capper. But I do not look at any saber-metrics when I cap..no xfip,WAR, siera or what ever. From past experiences ( for me ) too much info. can be a bad thing.

So my advice would be stop looking at ERA and WHIP and look at peripherals instead. That way there is no info overload.

[CappinTerp]

The Cubs Phillies o/u has been all over the f-ing place. Curious where you peg that one LT?

I may bet the over,both pitchers have sub.1.00 ground out ratio's In fact one of every 10 fly balls goes for a HR.

[gpet1984]

Polanco and Andrus out in tex/pit game anyone like u9?

[LT Profits]

What does model say about Astros today? They are playing good and Fister has been performing well.

Model likes Astros as it only has Angels 51% (-104)

[LT Profits]

Anyone like Indians/Orioles U 9 (-120)

I do not, I get 9.6

[CappinTerp]

So my advice would be stop looking at ERA and WHIP and look at peripherals instead. That way there is no info overload.

I do try to keep it simple and look for angles. Since I power weight my games,an angle is very important to me when I "step out" on a game.

[LT Profits]

SD at +105 is very tempting

I actually took o9 +105 in bal/cle (hope im on right end )

I was considering adding Padres, I get San Diego 56% (-127). But i HATE the line move making Zona favored.

[Redscot]

I will tell you,from what I read from you, I'am glad you are open minded.Yea ,well aware what a big biz sports betting is.Think about this: for what ever reason,no one will be able to bet any NFL games next season..there would be Billions on $ lost,not only for the NFL,but also sports bars,restaurants,mom& pop places ect. Anyway back to the point...for myself I just can not imagine how one can calibrate all this info into a reason as to why bet a game. I don't think this puts me at any disadvantage,because I do put a lot of stock into were the books open their price on any given game, and into the technical analyst of price movements,realizing that there is " no free lunch in Vegas"......BOL

I am square when it comes to understanding the books. Maybe at the end of the day that holds more importance than the actual game evaluation, unless you can beat the public to the jump I suppose. Baseball is unique though, it has continuous 1 vs 1 matchups, and a start and stop nature, that can be more easily compartamentalized (I know I f'd up that spelling) by far than any other sport. Still remains a bitch to bet . BOL Terp, we are on the same side , I enjoy learning from different perspectives.

[gpet1984]

I was considering adding Padres, I get San Diego 56% (-127). But i HATE the line move making Zona favored.

I know yesterday I was 0-2 on the lines that moved against you w/ Mets and Nats . I got sucked into that Mets bet sooooooooooooo bad

[LT Profits]

The Cubs Phillies o/u has been all over the f-ing place. Curious where you peg that one LT?

I get 8.2, but that is weather neutral. Seems wind blowing out so pass.

[Redscot]

I know yesterday I was 0-2 on the lines that moved against you w/ Mets and Nats . I got sucked into that Mets bet sooooooooooooo bad

That game was an aberration though with one of the most dominant SP this year getting tossed, and subsequently Utley making us his bitch

[gpet1984]

I'm a Met fan too =) yea it stunk. But like I said someone knew or took a good guess he was gonna throw at him cause that line dropped alot and made no sense

[Redscot]

I'm a Met fan too =) yea it stunk. But like I said someone knew or took a good guess he was gonna throw at him cause that line dropped alot and made no sense

I found the Nat's line drop more intriguing as I expected Maeda to have success against our bat's. Gio's volatile nature and where his head was at imo had to have something to do with drastic move (pure speculation), as their was no lineup moves that justified it and it was very early.

[paco]

Brewers crappy lineup should never be that high fav

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Sunday

Red Sox / Blue Jays UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)
Reds / Brewers OVER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Giants / Rockies UNDER 10.5 -110 (Heritage)
Twins / Mariners UNDER 7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Braves -123 (Heritage)

[funnyb25]

Tomorrow starts a better time for the model....been buried past few days

[funnyb25]

2 out 2 run homer to ruin the under in bottom 9th...

[funnyb25]

Another under crushed in the 8th... we in the red yet?

[mikefan1034]

Tomorrow starts a better time for the model....been buried past few days

Keep telling yourself that

[Rich Boy]

Tough sledding LT, keep at it