MLB - Tuesday, 5/24/16

[RavensFan2k3]

Ya, bcats does

Oh yeah? Whats the link to his thread?

anyone know anything about Danie Wright? I really like Cincinatti here

[iloseagain]

Oh yeah? Whats the link to his thread?

anyone know anything about Danie Wright? I really like Cincinatti here

amazing numbers in AAA

[LT Profits]

I wouldnt say he had the game of his life, when this was his stat line a month against Sale and this same WhiteSox team:

Anderson

6.0

6

2

2

2

2

1

Not as good as 9 Ks and 0 BBs last night

[iloseagain]

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Rays -112 (Heritage)
Rays / Marlins OVER 8 -115 (5 Dimes)
Rockies / Red Sox UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals -103 (Heritage)
Angels +108 (Heritage)
Athletics / Mariners UNDER 8 -115 (Heritage)

dont take this the wrong way.. im sure 100 people will jump to your defense cuz of this post, but i am just asking why you took this? Is it because your model showed Price locking them down? I pegged the sox for 8 runs themselves tonight.. I did take the over so im not just talking out of my ass here

[RavensFan2k3]

We taking Reds or Padres tonight?

[Slanina]

Well today sucked. Hopefully Oakland can salvage some of it.

[LT Profits]

dont take this the wrong way.. im sure 100 people will jump to your defense cuz of this post, but i am just asking why you took this? Is it because your model showed Price locking them down? I pegged the sox for 8 runs themselves tonight.. I did take the over so im not just talking out of my ass here

Well, yes to Price but I also thought De La Rosa would regain his form now that he is healthy and that his terrible early numbers were a result of the groin injury bothering him for longer than he let on. I guess not, maybe Jorge is washed up. We'll see over his next few starts.

[iloseagain]

Well, yes to Price but I also thought De La Rosa would regain his form now that he is healthy and that his terrible early numbers were a result of the groin injury bothering him for longer than he let on. I guess not, maybe Jorge is washed up. We'll see over his next few starts.

ok fair enough... wind was blowing in too.. i appreciate the response without anyone getting mad at me... For real. I think sometimes people on here react before thinking.. I know you have been killing it this season so i would never tell you you are wrong on a play. Just was curious as to your reasoning. Thank you.

[Anubis]

In a game of inches between two pro teams, one single play involving a lot of chance/randomness/luck can have a snowball effect on the rest of the game. Your model is nothing but overhyped nonsense if you are looking for arbitrage opportunities in the line being off by a differential of 1 or 2 runs. You are actually trying to drive the car forward by looking in the rear view mirror. This is very similar to the disclaimer that every financial firm states: "past performance does not guarantee future results." You lost five out of your six plays today. Your Cardinals pick today lost by nine runs. If all goes well throughout the season then you will break even at the end in the best-case scenario. A good example of acting like a smart numbers guy but in reality wasting your time. You might as well flip a coin instead of running your model, and you might be right 50% of the time. Don't forget that the markets and line are never wrong. Line inefficiencies have no effect on the result of the "game." You have no edge with your "model" in this game of inches. Don't take this the wrong way - I just stated some facts here.

[juicername]

In a game of inches between two pro teams, one single play involving a lot of chance/randomness/luck can have a snowball effect on the rest of the game. Your model is nothing but overhyped nonsense if you are looking for arbitrage opportunities in the line being off by a differential of 1 or 2 runs. You are actually trying to drive the car forward by looking in the rear view mirror. This is very similar to the disclaimer that every financial firm states: "past performance does not guarantee future results." You lost five out of your six plays today. Your Cardinals pick today lost by nine runs. If all goes well throughout the season then you will break even at the end in the best-case scenario. A good example of acting like a smart numbers guy but in reality wasting your time. You might as well flip a coin instead of running your model, and you might be right 50% of the time. Don't forget that the markets and line are never wrong. Line inefficiencies have no effect on the result of the "game." You have no edge with your "model" in this game of inches. Don't take this the wrong way - I just stated some facts here.

So by your own admission yesterday's result was nothing but a small blip on the radar and LT's model might very well be the best in the world? Got it.

[Anubis]

So by your own admission yesterday's result was nothing but a small blip on the radar and LT's model might very well be the best in the world? Got it.

I get it. If a firm has a track record of losing 83.3% of their equal-size trades in their first day of trading then I am sure there are folks like you who will gladly invest their money with that firm in their second trading day because past performance does not guarantee future results and like you said that firm's model "might very well be the best in the world." Next time, think twice before you post drivel. To begin with, your statement had no reference to context regarding my statement of analyzing historical data to predict future events with a high degree of chance and randomness. Now after my response, you look like a sheepling follower who posted something just for the sake of posting a response. Like I said in my first post, I repeat: "Don't take this the wrong way - I just stated some facts here."

[juicername]

I get it. If a firm has a track record of losing 83.3% of their equal-size trades in their first day of trading then I am sure there are folks like you who will gladly invest their money with that firm in their second trading day because past performance does not guarantee future results and like you said that firm's model "might very well be the best in the world." Next time, think twice before you post drivel. To begin with, your statement had no reference to context regarding my statement of analyzing historical data to predict future events with a high degree of chance and randomness. Now after my response, you look like a sheepling follower who posted something just for the sake of posting a response. Like I said in my first post, I repeat: "Don't take this the wrong way - I just stated some facts here."

lol

[Anubis]

lol

lol

[LT Profits]

In a game of inches between two pro teams, one single play involving a lot of chance/randomness/luck can have a snowball effect on the rest of the game. Your model is nothing but overhyped nonsense if you are looking for arbitrage opportunities in the line being off by a differential of 1 or 2 runs. You are actually trying to drive the car forward by looking in the rear view mirror. This is very similar to the disclaimer that every financial firm states: "past performance does not guarantee future results." You lost five out of your six plays today. Your Cardinals pick today lost by nine runs. If all goes well throughout the season then you will break even at the end in the best-case scenario. A good example of acting like a smart numbers guy but in reality wasting your time. You might as well flip a coin instead of running your model, and you might be right 50% of the time. Don't forget that the markets and line are never wrong. Line inefficiencies have no effect on the result of the "game." You have no edge with your "model" in this game of inches. Don't take this the wrong way - I just stated some facts here.

It is the exact same model that finished +93 units last season and, before today, I was running only three units behind the pace I was at on the same date last year (+16.97). Baseball is a looong season, check back at the end of the year to see where I am.

[smitch124]

In a game of inches between two pro teams, one single play involving a lot of chance/randomness/luck can have a snowball effect on the rest of the game. Your model is nothing but overhyped nonsense if you are looking for arbitrage opportunities in the line being off by a differential of 1 or 2 runs. You are actually trying to drive the car forward by looking in the rear view mirror. This is very similar to the disclaimer that every financial firm states: "past performance does not guarantee future results." You lost five out of your six plays today. Your Cardinals pick today lost by nine runs. If all goes well throughout the season then you will break even at the end in the best-case scenario. A good example of acting like a smart numbers guy but in reality wasting your time. You might as well flip a coin instead of running your model, and you might be right 50% of the time. Don't forget that the markets and line are never wrong. Line inefficiencies have no effect on the result of the "game." You have no edge with your "model" in this game of inches. Don't take this the wrong way - I just stated some facts here.

aaaand the markets never use these useless past performances?

[Anubis]

It is the exact same model that finished +93 units last season and, before today, I was running only three units behind the pace I was at on the same date last year (+16.97). Baseball is a looong season, check back at the end of the year to see where I am.

You are missing the entire point. You being up by positive blah blah units after having several losing days this year is your claim. I do not have the time to check your individual threads and assimilate your results. Even ponzi scheme artists send out a net positive statement every quarter. Even if your claim is correct, you can sometimes be right in predicting the flip of a coin 55% of the time. What I do know for certain is that you lost five out of your six plays today and got a lambasting by a big margin on several of your plays today. Good luck to you.

[Anubis]

aaaand the markets never use these useless past performances?

Great past performances are always factored into the high price of the line or product. I wish you the best when buying high in a "game" that has a high degree of chance and uncertainty. Get over the fact that you have no edge here. This is mainly for entertainment purposes only. Otherwise all these sportsbooks or SBR will not exist.

[LT Profits]

You are missing the entire point. You being up by positive blah blah units after having several losing days this year is your claim. I do not have the time to check your individual threads and assimilate your results. Even ponzi scheme artists send out a net positive statement every quarter. Even if your claim is correct, you can sometimes be right in predicting the flip of a coin 55% of the time. What I do know for certain is that you lost five out of your six plays today and got a lambasting by a big margin on several of your plays today. Good luck to you.

So winning 93 units over an entire season over 1000 plays was an aberration? And stop dwelling on one 1-5 day, the long term is all that matters. Even if I do half as good as last year and finish around +50 units, that is still far better than a coin flip.

[LT Profits]

Great past performances are always factored into the high price of the line or product. I wish you the best when buying high in a "game" that has a high degree of chance and uncertainty. Get over the fact that you have no edge here. This is mainly for entertainment purposes only. Otherwise all these sportsbooks or SBR will not exist.

Any model built on mainstream stats is doomed to fail, because yes those kinds of things are 100% built into the line. That is why mine is sabremetrically based and I feel I found one thing or two that is undervalued in the line, which should be the whole point of a working model.

[Anubis]

Any model built on mainstream stats is doomed to fail, because yes those kinds of things are 100% built into the line. That is why mine is sabremetrically based and I feel I found one thing or two that is undervalued in the line, which should be the whole point of a working model.

[LT Profits]

I don't get what is so funny? The results over one full season + two months this year should speak for themselves, combined +103 units even after the 1-5 blip yesterday.

[POOLSIDE]

Disengage LT, please don't give this buffoon airtime. For the rest of us. He's claiming that you're making these numbers up to look good and that you're really a losing bettor. There's no point.

[iloseagain]

this dude is insane.. gotta be a ghost of someone.. 6 posts? has an avatar? YUP

[Anubis]

Disengage LT, please don't give this buffoon airtime. For the rest of us. He's claiming that you're making these numbers up to look good and that you're really a losing bettor. There's no point.

"Buffoon?" That kind of name calling is a very good way to introduce yourself to strangers who have not said a word to you. I have followed this forum for a couple of months now and seen you name calling others on the forum when they state facts like this thread. I am not claiming anything - I said he might have a winning record like a 55% coin-flip prediction rate or might be making up numbers. It is not my fault if you do not understand what the word "might" means. I could care less about his so-called "results." I am not going to stoop down to your level and call you names. Enough said.

Good luck to the brilliant sabremetrically based model creators and analytical minds of this thread. You will need a lot of luck with these tight lines. The lines that according to you do not factor in those one to two sabremetrically based custom metrics of yours. The metrics which according to you can make all the difference in giving you an "edge" for predicting the result in this game of inches. Stop taking yourself too seriously folks. Learn to just pick your spots, have fun and hope for luck to be on your side. The moment you think you have a real edge in sports betting events (that are not fixed) you have already lost.

I have a $3,000 check payout that is being delayed by Bookmaker.eu for two weeks now due to check processor issues on their side. I converted a $500 deposit to $4,000 in a month. I created a profile on this forum yesterday not to engage with you but to track that payout and see if anyone else on this forum is facing similar check payout issues with Bookmaker. Will start a separate thread now. I did not want my first post on SBR to be that check payout issue thread. Peace out.

[LT Profits]

"Buffoon?" That kind of name calling is a very good way to introduce yourself to strangers who have not said a word to you. I have followed this forum for a couple of months now and seen you name calling others on the forum when they state facts like this thread. I am not claiming anything - I said he might have a winning record like a 55% coin-flip prediction rate or might be making up numbers. It is not my fault if you do not understand what the word "might" means. I could care less about his so-called "results." I am not going to stoop down to your level and call you names. Enough said.

Good luck to the brilliant sabremetrically based model creators and analytical minds of this thread. You will need a lot of luck with these tight lines. The lines that according to you do not factor in those one to two sabremetrically based custom metrics of yours. The metrics which according to you can make all the difference in giving you an "edge" for predicting the result in this game of inches. Stop taking yourself too seriously folks. Learn to just pick your spots, have fun and hope for luck to be on your side. The moment you think you have a real edge in sports betting events (that are not fixed) you have already lost.

I have a $3,000 check payout that is being delayed by Bookmaker.eu for two weeks now due to check processor issues on their side. I converted a $500 deposit to $4,000 in a month. I created a profile on this forum yesterday not to engage with you but to track that payout and see if anyone else on this forum is facing similar check payout issues with Bookmaker. Will start a separate thread now. I did not want my first post on SBR to be that check payout issue thread. Peace out.

Oh no, I may have to get a real job instead of making money betting every day. Oh the horrors!

[LT Profits]

The lines that according to you do not factor in those one to two sabremetrically based custom metrics of yours. The metrics which according to you can make all the difference in giving you an "edge" for predicting the result in this game of inches.

Although you are obviously being sarcastic, this statement is actually 100% true. Finding anything that is undervalued in the line is the key to success. And I repeat, would you consider winning 93 units in a full season over more than 1000 plays flipping a coin? I obviously have a clue about what I am doing, and if you refuse to see that, well then, good luck to you.

[Anubis]

Oh no, I may have to get a real job instead of making money betting every day. Oh the horrors!

lol

[SAX27]

Go away Anubis....you are irritating. Been here such a short time and being a doosh....go away!!

[Anubis]

Go away Anubis....you are irritating. Been here such a short time and being a doosh....go away!!

Now that you have stated your opinion on a public forum, you can stop telling others what to do and stfu.

[POOLSIDE]

I could care less about his so-called "results."

You mean couldn't. Could implies you do care. And you're still an idiot. Welcome to the forum. Wonderful job making your first few posts an antisocial and idiotic attack on the most successful baseball handicapper on the forum. Glad to have you.

LT, keep chucking up those darts lololol.

[blackeyeshamus]

lol

Fxck off, dxckweed!

http://sabr.org/sabermetrics

Here's a hunjee go getta handie 💵

[SAX27]

Ooh....I am sceered!! You are correct, I should not have called you a name, please accept my apologies...now, will you please go away?

[Anubis]

You mean couldn't. Could implies you do care. And you're still an idiot. Welcome to the forum. Wonderful job making your first few posts an antisocial and idiotic attack on the most successful baseball handicapper on the forum. Glad to have you.

LT, keep chucking up those darts lololol.

After you looked horrible for being called out for name-calling someone for no reason, you now want to act like a grammar expert. You are now going to be sad and embarrassed again when I state another fact for you: "Both "could care less" and"couldn't care less" are correct in their own context. Neither is literal. “I couldn’t care less” is hyperbole. “I could care less” is condescending sarcasm. Etymologists suggest that “I could care less” emerged as a sarcastic variant employing Yiddish humor. They point to the different intonations used in saying “I couldn’t care less” versus “I could care less.” The latter mirrors the intonation of the sarcastic Yiddish-English phrase “I should be so lucky!” where the verb is stressed. Yes, everyone, you’re so brilliant for pointing out that “could care less” means that you must care some. Your analysis is shallow and you’ve missed the point entirely. Only someone who cared very little would actually state that they could care less. If I cared a lot, or any meaningful amount at all, then noting that I could care less would be a pointless statement. It’s only meaningful if I already care so very little that I feel it noteworthy that I still might perhaps care even less." You just got your behind handed to you again. Ouch!


Do all of us a favor and stop name-calling strangers who have not engaged with you? In your first post, you call me "buffoon" and in the second post you call me "idiot." You do not even know anything about me, and you are calling me names. Are you in kindergarten or what? It must have been a hell of a losing day for you to get upset with some random stranger who states facts. Grow up or stfu.

[iloseagain]

After you looked horrible for being called out for name-calling someone for no reason, you now want to act like a grammar expert now. You are now going to be sad and embarrassed again when I state another fact for you: "Both "could care less" and"couldn't care less" are correct in their own context. Neither is literal. “I couldn’t care less” is hyperbole. “I could care less” is condescending sarcasm. Etymologists suggest that “I could care less” emerged as a sarcastic variant employing Yiddish humor. They point to the different intonations used in saying “I couldn’t care less” versus “I could care less.” The latter mirrors the intonation of the sarcastic Yiddish-English phrase “I should be so lucky!” where the verb is stressed. Yes, everyone, you’re so brilliant for pointing out that “could care less” means that you must care some. Your analysis is shallow and you’ve missed the point entirely. Only someone who cared very little would actually state that they could care less. If I cared a lot, or any meaningful amount at all, then noting that I could care less would be a pointless statement. It’s only meaningful if I already care so very little that I feel it noteworthy that I still might perhaps care even less." You just got your behind handed to you again. Ouch!


Do all of us a favor and stop name-calling strangers who have not engaged with you? In your first post, you call me "buffoon" and in the second post you call me "idiot." You do not even know anything about me, and you are calling me names. Are you in kindergarten or what? It must have been a hell of a losing day for you to get upset with some random stranger who states facts. Grow up or stfu.

shut up

[Anubis]

Ooh....I am sceered!! You are correct, I should not have called you a name, please accept my apologies...now, will you please go away?

Apology accepted. Please stop telling me what to do.