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Hi LT,
if you dont mind can you tell us how the model rates Baltimore today.
GL with your plays.
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#3
Originally posted by Spartak
Hi LT,
if you dont mind can you tell us how the model rates Baltimore today.
GL with your plays.
It actually has Baltimore as a slight road favorite, 51% (-104)
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#4
6 MLB Plays
6 MLB Plays Tuesday
Rays -112 (Heritage)
Rays / Marlins OVER 8 -115 (5 Dimes)
Rockies / Red Sox UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals -103 (Heritage)
Angels +108 (Heritage)
Athletics / Mariners UNDER 8 -115 (Heritage)
Comment
Nateboogy
SBR High Roller
03-13-14
167
#5
Would you play under 7.5 A's at even?
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#6
Originally posted by Nateboogy
Would you play under 7.5 A's at even?
Yes at + anything. No at -101 or more. So yes to +100.
Comment
Professor1215
SBR High Roller
11-28-11
216
#7
LT,
What is your tolerance philosophy? For example....under 7.5 you say nothing worse than +100. Why not -101?
Comment
LBallday
SBR Hustler
05-13-16
57
#8
I have two of those LT, my third was RAYS TT
Comment
LBallday
SBR Hustler
05-13-16
57
#9
TT o4
Comment
44 Mag
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
10-14-13
34495
#10
Originally posted by LT Profits
6 MLB Plays Tuesday
Rays -112 (Heritage)
Rays / Marlins OVER 8 -115 (5 Dimes)
Rockies / Red Sox UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals -103 (Heritage)
Angels +108 (Heritage)
Athletics / Mariners UNDER 8 -115 (Heritage)
NO 60%'s TODAY ????
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#11
Originally posted by Professor1215
LT,
What is your tolerance philosophy? For example....under 7.5 you say nothing worse than +100. Why not -101?
Depends on model number. Model has 6.6, so 7.5 is less than one run off. If difference is 0.8-0.9, I want at least +100. If difference is 0.7 on a low total, I want at least +105. If difference is 0.6 or less or 0.7 on high total, I usually pass (but there are exceptions based on judgment).
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#12
Originally posted by 44 Mag
NO 60%'s TODAY ????
Coming right up, I got sidetracked looking at NBA and NHL Playoffs (and ended up playing NOTHING lol)
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#13
60%ers:
Pittsburgh 67% (-203)
Washington 64% (-178)
Detroit 64% (-178)
Boston 69% (-223)
White Sox 69% (-223)
Seattle 62% (-163)
San Francisco 63% (-170)
Comment
scavenginglocks
SBR High Roller
12-02-15
129
#14
LT Marlin game over 8.5 at even is still good?
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#15
Originally posted by scavenginglocks
LT Marlin game over 8.5 at even is still good?
That is right on the border as I have 9.3, but I'd say yes (barely).
Comment
44 Mag
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
10-14-13
34495
#16
Originally posted by LT Profits
60%ers:
Pittsburgh 67% (-203)
Washington 64% (-178)
Detroit 64% (-178)
Boston 69% (-223)
White Sox 69% (-223)
Seattle 62% (-163)
San Francisco 63% (-170)
Yesterday's 1st ever 80% paid off. Close one.
Comment
POOLSIDE
SBR MVP
09-06-14
2839
#17
Why no play on the Rockies?
Comment
CanuckG
SBR Posting Legend
12-23-10
21978
#18
Mariners at -179 seems a bit steep. Thoughts?
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#19
Originally posted by POOLSIDE
Why no play on the Rockies?
I am in no hurry to play against Price, 10% above 223 is 245. I get that I could get +258 right now, but would rather pass, Price is sixth in the majors in xFIP.
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#20
Originally posted by CanuckG
Mariners at -179 seems a bit steep. Thoughts?
Would need at least +176 to even look at Oakland.
Comment
PorkChop
SBR Hall of Famer
09-18-08
8193
#21
Originally posted by LT Profits
Would need at least +176 to even look at Oakland.
Id argue Oakland isn't a bad play at all.
Starters went head to head May 2nd, Seattle won 4-3.
Won't play out to that outcome again.
Comment
PorkChop
SBR Hall of Famer
09-18-08
8193
#22
Did this with Mets/Nationals yesterday, Vegas' biggest MLB line mistake they continually make;
Colon went head to head vs Gonzalez May 18th, Nats and Gonzo won 7-1. Same exact matchup last night, Vegas auto puts Nationals -150 favorite. Game played out complete opposite. Starters never pitch head to head identically back to back matchup. Mets +145 was no brainer.
Baseball betting is very valuable when your handed previous head to head SP matchups.
Comment
iloseagain
Restricted User
06-29-10
10681
#23
Originally posted by PorkChop
Did this with Mets/Nationals yesterday, Vegas' biggest MLB line mistake they continually make;
Colon went head to head vs Gonzalez May 18th, Nats and Gonzo won 7-1. Same exact matchup last night, Vegas auto puts Nationals -150 favorite. Game played out complete opposite. Starters never pitch head to head identically back to back matchup. Mets +145 was no brainer.
Baseball betting is very valuable when your handed previous head to head SP matchups.
how bout cueto/pomeranz? Both of their last 2 starts were against eachother. They went EXACTLY the same. Cueto 2 complete games. Games ended 2-1 and 1-0 in favor of SF
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#24
Originally posted by PorkChop
Id argue Oakland isn't a bad play at all.
Starters went head to head May 2nd, Seattle won 4-3.
Won't play out to that outcome again.
Originally posted by PorkChop
Did this with Mets/Nationals yesterday, Vegas' biggest MLB line mistake they continually make;
Colon went head to head vs Gonzalez May 18th, Nats and Gonzo won 7-1. Same exact matchup last night, Vegas auto puts Nationals -150 favorite. Game played out complete opposite. Starters never pitch head to head identically back to back matchup. Mets +145 was no brainer.
Baseball betting is very valuable when your handed previous head to head SP matchups.
I pay no attention to stuff like that and it has absolutely nothing to do with how books set the odds. And this is coming from a guy that cashed Mets +147 last night.
Comment
PorkChop
SBR Hall of Famer
09-18-08
8193
#25
Originally posted by iloseagain
how bout cueto/pomeranz? Both of their last 2 starts were against eachother. They went EXACTLY the same. Cueto 2 complete games. Games ended 2-1 and 1-0 in favor of SF
You're correct on this one. Happens VERY VERY rarely. Like Double Headers, RARELY land on the same total. Yesterday Game 1, White Sox and Over, Game 2 Cleveland and Under. Under was a no brainer in game 2.
Id be a millionaire if there was a double-header once a week.
Comment
iloseagain
Restricted User
06-29-10
10681
#28
Originally posted by PorkChop
Id be a millionaire if there was a double-header once a week.
i swear someone posted all the double headers from last year and the results were not even close to that chart.. it was more 50/50 than over/under one team/other team
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#29
Originally posted by PorkChop
Id be a millionaire if there was a double-header once a week.
Not following your logic you would not. There is ZERO correlation between Game 1 and Game 2 of doubleheaders, you have to handicap each game on its own merit. And to say the Under in Game 2 between Indians and White Sox was a no-brainer is just insane, it was a matchup of two minor league pitchers. I lost with the Over and would make the same play again, Cody Anderson only has one Game of his Life in his, well, life.
Comment
PorkChop
SBR Hall of Famer
09-18-08
8193
#30
Originally posted by LT Profits
I pay no attention to stuff like that and it has absolutely nothing to do with how books set the odds. And this is coming from a guy that cashed Mets +147 last night.
So yesterday, Colon's previous matchup, (& start), against the same pitcher/team, you didn't look at that, and factor into the Mets play?
That's a little surprising to me. But everyone caps different. Happy we both cashed it.
Comment
PorkChop
SBR Hall of Famer
09-18-08
8193
#31
Originally posted by LT Profits
Not following your logic you would not. There is ZERO correlation between Game 1 and Game 2 of doubleheaders, you have to handicap each game on its own merit. And to say the Under in Game 2 between Indians and White Sox was a no-brainer is just insane, it was a matchup of two minor league pitchers. I lost with the Over and would make the same play again, Cody Anderson only has one Game of his Life in his, well, life.
I wouldnt say he had the game of his life, when this was his stat line a month against Sale and this same WhiteSox team:
So yesterday, Colon's previous matchup, (& start), against the same pitcher/team, you didn't look at that, and factor into the Mets play?
That's a little surprising to me. But everyone caps different. Happy we both cashed it.
One start does not change much of anything, model looks at entire body of work.
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#33
Originally posted by PorkChop
Game 1's you always get full lineups. The second game is the 'getaway' if you will, lineups adjusted usually for the lesser, in terms of batters.
But lineups are reflected by posted total, so playing a bunch of subs does NOT equate to more Unders. And Game 2 lineups were close to normal last night with one or two exceptions.
There is ZERO correlation between Game 1 and Game 2 of doubleheaders, you have to handicap each game on its own merit. And to say the Under in Game 2 between Indians and White Sox was a no-brainer is just insane, it was a matchup of two minor league pitchers. I lost with the Over and would make the same play again, Cody Anderson only has one Game of his Life in his, well, life. 
