System?
Do you guys know the percentage of series that are swept? I was thinking of a system that just involves chasing two games. In a 3 games series whoever loses the first game you bet on them the next two doubling up if you lose the first. But if you win you are done with that series. With 10-16 series going all the time if you were two lose two series you would still profit. But don't bet on the 5 worst teams in baseball to not get swept. Unless the pirates win game one then you would be the cardinals to win one of the next two. I don't know if there is a system like that or someone tried it. Just a random thought. Of course I haven't done any research at all on it so this idea could be completely dumb and not worth it. I was never really into systems until the past year because I can't pick a winner to save my life.
-
-
Is this system so stupid that it doesn't even warrant a reply?!
Comment -
yea man sounds pretty good.
but there are alot of sweeps.
but try it out a bit.
but just with barely anything. you could have something big
Comment -
I'm going to track it here as much as I can, but with no money on the line for a month to see if anything comes of it. Just doing this to come up with some filters if it seems possible. Such as home teams, injuries and records. But for now I'm just doing a straight record. With so many games decided by 1 run, the money line would be have to be played for it to have a chance at working. Which may actually make this theory useless on heavy favorites that get swept. . I'll post as if i were betting 10 per game and taking the moneyline even on the underdogs. A few series are left out as they are in their 3rd game of the series already.
A = Away / H = Home
A - Detroit // +140 or 7.15 W
H - Toronto // -110 or 11.00 W
A - Milwaukee // +170 or 5.88 L
A - Colorado // +160 or 6.25 L
A - Arizona // +135 or 7.40 W
H - Houston // +105 or 9.52 W
H - Philly // -180 or 18.00 L
A - White sox // +145 or 6.90 W
A - Baltimore // +240 or 4.17 L
H - Texas // +105 or 9.52 L
H - Washington // +155 or 6.07 L
A - Atlanta // -105 or 10.50 L
I know I am doing every game without filters, but with Vlad out I can't get myself to keep track of the Angels even with it being a test.Comment -
yea man i think this could work!
hopefully it does i need some moola!! hahaComment -
I did work based on this years games so far. As it stands as of 4/17 the record is 38-8. Factor in the martingale, you are looking around roughly 22 losses. They were all underdogs so the bet amount was ridiculously low, which is why it falls short of 24 that simple math says. So that is an overall record of 38-22 doing worst case scenario. Which would be a $160 profit on the season. Now the better news. 2 of the losses were given by Washington with just contributing one win. Which would be excluded because they are one the worst teams in baseball.
All teams that contributed with a loss. Included is overall record using them with the system.
Cleveland with a 2-1 record
Houston with a 1-1 record
Texas with a 1-1 record
Washington with a 1-2 record
San Francisco with a 1-2 recordComment -
oh ok well sounds good?
are you gonna try it for a bit than?Comment -
More than likely after doing the figures. But I may wait till May 1st to see where teams stand. Too early to know who needs to be filtered out. Because I highly doubt I'll do washington and san francisco. Plus I just cashed out 3K at ultimate bet for some promo I was doing. Gotta wait to get it before I have a bankroll to attempt this. Also, thinking for a filter of teams with a win percentage of .430 or higher should only be a play. Like I said I'll wait till May to see how it looks. All the teams mentioned above could lose the next two games and be broke tomorrow. Need more sample.Comment -
Now that some of the games won and some lost. These would be the plays for today. I just got off work so I couldn't post before the games went live.
Milwaukee +130 or 12.21 W
Colorado +105 or 15.95 L
Philly -160 or 45.05 W
Baltimore +175 or 8.20 L
Texas -145 or 28.25 W
Atlanta -105 or 21.55 W
Washington +130 or 12.36 LComment -
well it looks decent so far. i dont think id play it unles it got better tho..Comment -
Results for the latest series:
Good news:
+37.01 with no filters
Better news:
Take out washington and you are now +55.44 for the latest series.
I will continue to keep track of this with each new series.Comment -
maybe try something like this with just the road team....Comment -
The road is the team that gave me 2 of the 3 losses this series. And the team that lost at home was the Nationals. If anything, I'd bet just the home teams.
Edit: I went back and checked home/away record. The road team has 7 of the 8 losses this year. With guess who, the nationals as being the only home team to lose.Comment -
the idea is...you would be doubling up in the chase...once the road team wins..the chase would end... Take the 5 worst teams from last year out...Comment -
maybe run a check and see how often a home team sweeps 3, or even 6 on a homestand... one win...would cause you to move to next series... I might check something like this out... I am hitting over 60% for year on mlb... but seriously doubt I will keep up that pace... Marlins might be a good team to fade right now...
My reasoning? 7 game win streak...how long can it last? Wonder what was longest win streak in mlb last year.... How about fading teams once they have won so many straight...research anyone???Comment -
The longest win streak last year was 10 if memory serves me. Both the Indians and mets did it.Comment -
Try going to retrosheet.org for past season data to do your research. Trying to track current season data will be tedious at best. You can throw several seasons worth of games into a spreadsheet and have some preliminary results pretty quick.Comment -
I ran through all the figures from 2008. I left out Washington and Seattle for obvious reasons. The record was 457-174 for 72.4%. When I take the teams out with a win percentage of less than .470 to avoid a sweep the record becomes 312-82 for 79.1%. The best teams were Angels at 18-1. Yankees at 23-2 and then Philly at 15-2. I will check the record for home teams getting swept after losing the first game tomorrow. In conclusion, I don't know if it'll work because of having to do the moneyline. Especially when its the dodgers playing the nationals at home and getting swept. That would wipe out like 10 wins from one loss. Ill do some more filter search to see what I come up with.Comment -
See the Marlins lost...lets watch for win streaks over 5-6 area...will not be a ton but might be a nice chase to end a win streak... Will also check that site thanks suicidekings...Comment -
Plays for today would be:
A Atlanta -120 or $12.00
A Florida -140 or $14.00
A Colorado +107 or 9.35Comment -
Another idiotComment -
He is right though, any Martingale system will eventually fail. It's a mathematical fact.
Doubling your wager only because the previous play lost is just plain stupid, as losing the previous game does not make a team twice as likely to win its next game, which is exactly what you are implying by doubling the wager.Comment -
I'd be doubling the wager but for the sake of a team not getting swept. That is the true bet. I'm not taking marlins tonight and doubling up on rangers tomorrow. If there was a book that let you bet on if a team would sweep a series then I would be betting that. So this is simply another way. It's not supposed to win everytime. I'm not chasing 5 games to win my original bet. I know going in losses will occur a lot. It's the overall figure that has my interest. 10 a game won't win much over a season, but doesn't mean i can't see what that amount would be. This isn't the NBA system that went 72-0 with one loss wiping out more than half the wins.Comment -
Comment -
I love these threads. I think they really get at the essence of the stupidity at the heart of most gamblers.Comment -
Doubling up just one time is one time too many. If you really believe that a team has a better chance to win Game 3 of a series after losing the first two games, just use straight Kelly with a slightly higher win expectancy.Comment -
Thank you kind sir. Glad to see someone actually understood it before slamming it. I guess my using the word martingale was a bad idea. I don't even know if this will come close to profiting. Which is why I said im not betting and just keeping track. Some don't fully understand words. Selective reading.Comment -
It's simply a thought that is being tracked. Nothing more nothing less. I found out the record for 08 after about an hour of going through the games. But with the line I have no idea if it profited. So this is my intention. To see if it actually profited. So far it has this year. But the first two or three weeks of baseball is hardly an indication of what will transpire in august/september.Comment -
No problem. It is very intriguing to me. There has to be a way to see what the "cost" of the 174 series sweeps (system losses) was last year. Isn't there a database for the lines for all those games? If someone points me in the right direction I can attempt to take a look...Comment -
Pure entertainmentComment
