Can someone backtest this?

[Dfjay9]

I've heard taking the one, two or three biggest run line favorites (-1.5), biggest favorites on the ML I mean is profitable.

For instance if you have favorites of:
-110
-130
-150
-160
-170

you'd take the run line of the -150, -160, -170 (or just the biggest favorite or the 2 biggest depending on which combination is most profitable)

Could anyone backtest this one year or more? To see if one, two or all three are profitable even?

You'd get plus money in it, I see the biggest favorite being profitable as you'd have to win less than 50%.

[Dfjay9]

Bump who are the backtesters on CK's system so I can shoot them a PM?

[Dfjay9]

Tomorrows biggest Fav's are as follows
1. St Louis -185 ML (+120 RL)
2. Yankees -166 ML (-110 RL) (I think the yankees should be filtered out maybe due to inflated lines imo)
3. Chi White Sox -157 ML (+135 RL)

The Note on the yankees, a bigger ML should imply smaller odds on the RL. It isn't much of a stretch to say the yanks have inflated lines as you can see. Yankees have the second largest ML and they're the only team on the board for tomorrow who has a Negative RL odds (favorite that is)

[pimike]

no rl for me taking both straight up and maybe parla them as well

[Dexter]

that has nothing to do with the yankees being the yankees. no inflated lines for them. road favorites always get poor money line odds to go with the run line because the road team has the advantage in run line games (they get 9+ inn to win by 2+ runs). the home team essentially has 8 inn to get it done. unless a rarity occurs and they hit a multiple run homer in the bottom of the 9th or extra inn.

i dont see how something so simple can be an easy winner. no way imo this is consistently a winner. but i have no data to back that up

[pimike]

that has nothing to do with the yankees being the yankees. no inflated lines for them. road favorites always get poor money line odds to go with the run line because the road team has the advantage in run line games (they get 9+ inn to win by 2+ runs). the home team essentially has 8 inn to get it done. unless a rarity occurs and they hit a multiple run homer in the bottom of the 9th or extra inn.

i dont see how something so simple can be an easy winner. no way imo this is consistently a winner. but i have no data to back that up

[Dfjay9]

that has nothing to do with the yankees being the yankees. no inflated lines for them. road favorites always get poor money line odds to go with the run line because the road team has the advantage in run line games (they get 9+ inn to win by 2+ runs). the home team essentially has 8 inn to get it done. unless a rarity occurs and they hit a multiple run homer in the bottom of the 9th or extra inn.

i dont see how something so simple can be an easy winner. no way imo this is consistently a winner. but i have no data to back that up

Just like taking the to score everytime in the first inning. And like I said I'm new to baseball, thanks for clearing that up.

[Dfjay9]

bump

[Dexter]

why dont you just backtest it yourself? it may be time consuming, but you clearly have an interest in it.

use covers.com

[Dfjay9]

I don't have the time. Work and univ. I would do it myself if I had the time...

[Dfjay9]

1. St Louis -185 ML (+120 RL)
2. Yankees -166 ML (-110 RL) (I think the yankees should be filtered out maybe due to inflated lines imo)
3. Chi White Sox -157 ML (+135 RL)

If all were Risking 1 unit on favs and to win 1 unit on dogsm which I will test myself now
Yankees cover , other two do not.
April 9 - 1-2 (-1 unit)

Todays plays are:
1. Atlanta -215 ML (+100 RL)
2. Detroit -165 ML (+130 RL)
3. Yankees -160 ML(-105 RL)

[Dfjay9]

Detroit cashes the first hypothetical ticket for +1.3 units adn Yanks coming out lookign good.

We'll see how well this does in a week or so.

[austintx05]

this is one of the worst strategies I have ever heard. Please don't take that comment personal, but your results will be random. If it was really that easy to win longterm then we all would do it, quit our jobs and retire today.

[Dfjay9]

My answer to that is, who knew how CK's systems would work.

Betting first halfs on basketball games? Betting to score first inning? Those are the same exact thing -- no homework. And I'm just testing it. I perused some old scores on Covers and it seems to hit around 50%

[Dexter]

thats what i would think it would be....around 500. better off trying to think up of some good filters.

ie, playing the RL on a ML of -200 or more when the team is coming off of 2 losses.

something like that. i generally do cap like that - taking good teams/pitchers off losses, but never formally made a system out of it.

keep us posted though

[Dfjay9]

well .500 would post a profit as the majority are + money plays

[Dfjay9]

+2.3 units on the day so far with Atlanta delayed.

[Machine Choice]

I'm thinking that if you took the biggest ML favorite of each day and played that game on the RL....just that one play each day, and then chased after a loss.....you wouldn't lose more than five in a row AND you would probably win more than 60% of your plays.

[Dfjay9]

I think chasing on the RL top fav's would be profitable in.

Lets say hypothetically, The top RL fav would have to be the first game in a series and then you chase that RL through the series?

[Dfjay9]

2-1 yesterday for +1.3 units. putting hte total record at 3-3 for + .8 units, just an observation, its too early to tell still BUT if we were using the calc to make the run line -1 then we would be 5-1 right now. I'm going to keep a track of that as well

today's plays:

Yankees -200 ML (-125 RL)
Detroit -165 ML (+120 RL)
Atlanta -165 ML (+125 RL)

[Dfjay9]

Also: like I said, too early to tell, the top 2 favs in th epast two days have not covered (maybe its not worth the negative juice to play them? don't play negative lines? we'll see)

[peeiempee]

Yesterday biggest ML was braves won by 1 in 10th inning

[Dfjay9]

Didn't I say that?

[Dfjay9]

Detroit blows it but again, note they would have pushed at 1.

[Dfjay9]

+1.25 units on the day if the yanks hold on

That'd put the record at 5-4 for +2.05 units

[Dfjay9]

Tomorrows plays are:

1. Atlanta -210 (RL +105)
2. Boston -165 (RL -105)
3a. Arizona -155 (RL +135)
3b. Tampa -155 (RL +105)

Now I'm using opening lines I might add, we have a bit of a conundrum since two teams opened at the same number. Arizona has a higher ML currently, so I'd probably side with that team over Tampa. At Bookmaker Arizona is -149 and Tampa is -146. For the sake of my tracking I'm going to track ARIZONA and not Tampa.

[jellobiafra]

You guys should check out the thread titled "System Integrity". I think we're doing something very similar to this. The system we are using has been back tested through last season with very good results. It is 3-0 on the season to date.

[Unitage]

Well I believe as the ML price gets higher the probability of the game being a 1 run win by the big fav gets higher and higher.
So large favourites win by 1 run more likely.
Maybe find a book that takes win by 1 run margin plays and backtest it.
Youll probably get +200 range

[Dfjay9]

as in -1 run instead of -1.5? I mentioned this earlier and there is a calculation you can use to manipulate a -1.5 and the ML to equal the odds of a -1 line.

[Dfjay9]

Atlanta cashes +105