How Percentages break into lines

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  • austintx05
    SBR MVP
    • 08-24-06
    • 3156

    #1
    How Percentages break into lines
    I view baseball betting a bit differently than most do. I don't handicap the team, but instead I handicap the line. I think often time we bet ace pitchers and/or teams who we think will win, but we end up paying too much for them. This is not to say that I don't weigh in other factors such as streaks, obp, whip, etc. I just am noting that even if we feel a team should win, at what price are we paying for it and is that price worth it?

    Pretty simple concept, but most might not think to wager this way. I have not seen much discussed about this type of betting on the rx, so I thought I would inject my opinion and below is the table of how percentages break into lines.

    Line Favorite Dog
    300 75% 25%
    280 74% 26%
    240 71% 29%
    220 69% 31%
    210 68% 32%
    200 67% 33%
    195 66% 34%
    190 66% 34%
    185 65% 35%
    180 64% 36%
    175 64% 36%
    170 63% 37%
    165 62% 38%
    160 62% 38%
    155 61% 39%
    150 60% 40%
    145 59% 41%
    140 58% 42%
    135 57% 43%
    130 57% 43%
    125 56% 44%
    120 55% 45%
    115 53% 47%
    110 52% 48%
    105 51% 49%
    100 50% 50%
  • ICE-BLOOD
    SBR MVP
    • 07-21-08
    • 1004

    #2
    the line one bets at is important

    a -150 favorite has to win 7 of 10 times to come out ahead
    winning 6 of 10 on a -150 favorite breaks even

    tough to back a dog when you handicap them to lose most of the time, but the value comes in at the extra + money return you get when they do win

    mlb moneyline plays are tough
    Comment
    • spongerat
      SBR MVP
      • 10-01-08
      • 2023

      #3
      are there people that take this seriously that DONT do this? thanks for the chart though
      Comment
      • austintx05
        SBR MVP
        • 08-24-06
        • 3156

        #4
        lots of people bet purely on who they think will win. search posters at different sites at random and all of their analysis talks about why they think team A will win, yet nothing to do with the odds.

        Comment
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