First 5 innings bets v. betting the entire game
I'm thinking about taking up MLB betting next season. Here's my question:
How can you handicap for the final 4 innings of a game? I know you can handicap for the overall strength of a team's bullpen but...
You never know for sure who will be pitching (or hitting frequently) in the later innings, you can only guess. Therefore, aren't we simply relying on luck?
At the book I use they offer bets on the final 4 innings and almost every game is about a pick for the last 4 innings. It doesn't matter if the favorite is -200 for the game, for the last 4 innings they'll be approximately a pick (usually about a -125 favorite max). I think the books are telling us something, the last four innings are almost always a toss-up.
I find betting on the first five innings appealing because it's relatively simple to handicap and easier to predict than handicapping for the entire game, imho. If you can answer this question correctly I think you should win most of the time betting the first five innings:
Which starting pitcher will do better in the first five innings?
I started handicapping using this method last season for a while and I couldn't believe some of the odds the books put out. You can get a pitcher who's 6-1 with a 1.5 era at -140 for the first five innings v. a pitcher who's 3-3 with a 4.5 era. Looks like a great bet and it usually is.
My question is: Why bet the entire baseball game? There's so many factors in the later innings that you can never handicap for.
I think handicapping the first five innings with great accuracy is possible whereas handicapping the entire game with great accuracy is usually impossible. Am I right or wrong?
How can you handicap for the final 4 innings of a game? I know you can handicap for the overall strength of a team's bullpen but...
You never know for sure who will be pitching (or hitting frequently) in the later innings, you can only guess. Therefore, aren't we simply relying on luck?
At the book I use they offer bets on the final 4 innings and almost every game is about a pick for the last 4 innings. It doesn't matter if the favorite is -200 for the game, for the last 4 innings they'll be approximately a pick (usually about a -125 favorite max). I think the books are telling us something, the last four innings are almost always a toss-up.
I find betting on the first five innings appealing because it's relatively simple to handicap and easier to predict than handicapping for the entire game, imho. If you can answer this question correctly I think you should win most of the time betting the first five innings:
Which starting pitcher will do better in the first five innings?
I started handicapping using this method last season for a while and I couldn't believe some of the odds the books put out. You can get a pitcher who's 6-1 with a 1.5 era at -140 for the first five innings v. a pitcher who's 3-3 with a 4.5 era. Looks like a great bet and it usually is.
My question is: Why bet the entire baseball game? There's so many factors in the later innings that you can never handicap for.
I think handicapping the first five innings with great accuracy is possible whereas handicapping the entire game with great accuracy is usually impossible. Am I right or wrong?