Fisrt of all this thread is created with the only purpose of reading everyone´s opinnion on the matter, it is not intended to encourage players to debate who is right and who is wrong, at the end I strongly believe everyone here has their own way of doing things and I am not pretending to change their way, in the process we all may learn something that may help us to improve our skills and achieve the common goal of making good money on betting.
I want to start with some thoughts of my own:
- Vegas and some bookies know more than everybody.
- Even with a model, knowledge of the game, luck, etc. you can´t win them all.
- Money management and discipline are the most important skills you have to develop
Ok let´s hit it:
Want to start with the concept that many people call "value"
I have read many times players in many places calling a "good value", either is by a model, a system or pure knowledge of the game people believe the line offered by the books is out of reality it can be too cheap or too expensive. I have seen lines that according to my model and my way of capping appear to good to be true, some people may say "hey there is good value there" "should be more expensive", question here is why is it cheaper?, in one hand people may jump on the cheap line cause they see value, on the other hand people may hesitate because line seems to easy and as many people has stated "if looks too easy go the other way", I recall 1 clear and recent example: Dodgers at home vs Reds 1st game of past series, Greinke best winning percentage at home and best winning percentage among active starters since 2011 on the mound and Dodgers coming from consecutive sweeps, line was pretty cheap IMO and at the end Dodgers lost.
This bring us to the next concept: "reading the lines":
In the example I stated before there was RLM during the day, some may say "hey line was telling everything", yes agree but I would think that finding value you gotta move fast and lock it before price rises otherwise you will lost the value on the play. Reading lines is another "tool" many people use and many don´t give a peanut about it, have seen also people walking away or tailing what they think is sharp action on a side of the game, they can also being caught in a "trap", as an example yesterday on Bjays game line moved about 16 cents towards Bjays minutes before game time, some people hesitate and did not bet on Angels and some others bet on tailing what they thought was a sharp action on bjays. Bjays lost.
I think we gotta understand that line movements does not necessarily implie sharp money, what I understand Vegas and bookies have to try to bring same amount of money to both sides of the table, they make this kind of moves very often specially when one side is clearly loaded with money, here is the matter how do we know when is sharp money? or how do we know the bookies are moving on air?.
"Chasing the steam" is another tool many bettors use, problem with chasing steam is that you might get caught on those "moves on air" or "traps" that bookies set to atract those bettors money. So reading lines may and IMO is a very good tool to use but does anyone really knows the secret for every move? I guess IMO that no one knows.
Last concept I want to bring to the table has all of the above implied:
BTCL or beating the closing line
Finding value in one play on opening lines may lead us to lock it early if line goes the way we expect we are BTCL, but what happen when goes the other way? was there really value there?, is it caused by public,sharp money, or bookies?, do I wait to see early movements?, Imo those are pretty intriguing questions that may be answered in such different ways as you can tell.
Hope you didn´t get bored with the reading, would like to read oppinions from everyone, just want to finish with this:
IMO even with all these tools nothing can assure you a win, at the end is still gambling.
GLTA!!!!
I want to start with some thoughts of my own:
- Vegas and some bookies know more than everybody.
- Even with a model, knowledge of the game, luck, etc. you can´t win them all.
- Money management and discipline are the most important skills you have to develop
Ok let´s hit it:
Want to start with the concept that many people call "value"
I have read many times players in many places calling a "good value", either is by a model, a system or pure knowledge of the game people believe the line offered by the books is out of reality it can be too cheap or too expensive. I have seen lines that according to my model and my way of capping appear to good to be true, some people may say "hey there is good value there" "should be more expensive", question here is why is it cheaper?, in one hand people may jump on the cheap line cause they see value, on the other hand people may hesitate because line seems to easy and as many people has stated "if looks too easy go the other way", I recall 1 clear and recent example: Dodgers at home vs Reds 1st game of past series, Greinke best winning percentage at home and best winning percentage among active starters since 2011 on the mound and Dodgers coming from consecutive sweeps, line was pretty cheap IMO and at the end Dodgers lost.
This bring us to the next concept: "reading the lines":
In the example I stated before there was RLM during the day, some may say "hey line was telling everything", yes agree but I would think that finding value you gotta move fast and lock it before price rises otherwise you will lost the value on the play. Reading lines is another "tool" many people use and many don´t give a peanut about it, have seen also people walking away or tailing what they think is sharp action on a side of the game, they can also being caught in a "trap", as an example yesterday on Bjays game line moved about 16 cents towards Bjays minutes before game time, some people hesitate and did not bet on Angels and some others bet on tailing what they thought was a sharp action on bjays. Bjays lost.
I think we gotta understand that line movements does not necessarily implie sharp money, what I understand Vegas and bookies have to try to bring same amount of money to both sides of the table, they make this kind of moves very often specially when one side is clearly loaded with money, here is the matter how do we know when is sharp money? or how do we know the bookies are moving on air?.
"Chasing the steam" is another tool many bettors use, problem with chasing steam is that you might get caught on those "moves on air" or "traps" that bookies set to atract those bettors money. So reading lines may and IMO is a very good tool to use but does anyone really knows the secret for every move? I guess IMO that no one knows.
Last concept I want to bring to the table has all of the above implied:
BTCL or beating the closing line
Finding value in one play on opening lines may lead us to lock it early if line goes the way we expect we are BTCL, but what happen when goes the other way? was there really value there?, is it caused by public,sharp money, or bookies?, do I wait to see early movements?, Imo those are pretty intriguing questions that may be answered in such different ways as you can tell.
Hope you didn´t get bored with the reading, would like to read oppinions from everyone, just want to finish with this:
IMO even with all these tools nothing can assure you a win, at the end is still gambling.
GLTA!!!!
) it would actually be a nice fade since '04