August 24 Ganchalysis

[Ganchrow]

Mets 56% - The Mets again rate an edge over St. Louis despite having little or no edge in starting pitching. The reasons are the same, namely, their strong offense going up against the shaky bullpen of St. Louis. When the bullpens get involved, the Mets will have an easier time than St. Louis maintaining any lead they have, or coming back from behind. Dave Williams is no prize, but he is capable of having a reasonable start more than once in a while.

If Williams gets hit hard and Marquis has a quality start, of course St. Louis will have a huge advantage, and that is a reasonably likely scenario. But anything other than that tips the scales strongly in favor of the Mets.


Tampa Bay 47% - Tampa Bay has won three straight over Texas as a home underdog, and they will have value tonight as a home dog yet again. Both on the year and in August they are only barely over .500 at home, yet their return is around 20%. Seth McClung has added depth and quality to their bullpen, which is now starting to get the job done holding leads.

Neither starting pitcher inspires confidence. Robinson Tejeda has problems with wildness, and if Texas does have a starting pitching edge in this game, it's not by much.

A Texas blowout is possible, but if that doesn't happen, Tampa Bay will have a solid chance to win.

[austintx05]

Good Luck

I agree that Mets have an edge over STL's pen and Texas is a team that is difficult to figure out. TB as a home dog has a shot.

[Ganchrow]

Cincinnati 57% - Cincinnati rates an edge in all areas of this game, giving them a good-sized edge overall.

Eric Milton has been pitching reasonably well of late, throwing decent starts against some quality lineups in hitter-friendly parks. Dealing with the aging, modest San Francisco lineup should be an easier task. Although he always has the potential to have a multi-HR game, he is likely to bounce back from his last start with a quality outing here.

Brad Hennessey is very enigmatic; he can sometimes have quality outings, but he is also very prone to getting hit hard. And, his career home/road splits are extremely bad on the home side, which is puzzling since his home park is generally not unfriendly to pitchers. But the stats speak for themselves:

ROAD: 11-4, 3.03 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .234 BAA
HOME: 1-9, 5.98 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .304 BAA.

Those numbers could be a statistical fluke, but they are not likely to be. And in light of them, facing a relatively strong and balanced lineup such as Cincinnati's does not bode well for him.

Cincinnati has a lineup edge, even adjusting for the teams' respective home parks, and possibly a bullpen edge as well. Armando Benitez coming in on a third day in a row would not be a comfortable situation for Giants backers.