ATP/WTA Favorites Service Point Strategy

**spankmythighs** · 10-26-16, 04:34 PM

ATP play using my strategy went 32-0 today!!

**Lightning** · 10-27-16, 03:43 AM

Sounds interesting man - could you clarify with an actual example?

**spankmythighs** · 10-27-16, 01:10 PM

		0 - 1
0:15, 15:15, 15:30, 30:30, 30:40
		1 - 1
15:0, 30:0, 30:15, 40:15
		1 - 2
15:0, 15:15, 15:30, 15:40

So this is Mannarino vs Sock yesterday with Sock being the favorite. He is serving first and you can see he loses the 2nd point and 4th point of game 1 which are even service points and one of our triggers. Now we will wait till he serves again and bet that he will win the 2nd point or if he loses that bet to win the 4th point. We do this for up to 2 service games or an A, B, C, D bet. As you can see in the 3rd game, Sock wins point #2 which is a win for us.

**spankmythighs** · 10-27-16, 01:12 PM

This strategy works well with Bet365

**spankmythighs** · 10-27-16, 01:37 PM

Gonna stick with ATP for now. Today so far 12-0

**spankmythighs** · 10-27-16, 04:33 PM

All ATP play today 21-0! 53-0 last 2 days!

**spankmythighs** · 10-28-16, 10:20 AM

3-0 so far today! 3 day total at 56-0 now

**spankmythighs** · 10-28-16, 10:20 AM

Havent looked at Challenger favs yet.

**KingHawkins** · 10-28-16, 10:32 AM

Give me a full example of a A,B,C,D loss.... assuming we are betting to win one unit, how many units do you lose when you lose the 4 straight and take the loss on your win/loss record?? I'll let you pick the price of each bet..... I am more accustomed to american odds myself, but I'll take european if you prefer. Big difference though between 1.4 (-250) and 1.6 (-165~)..... heck, maybe calculate an example for both. I'd figure 1.4 is closer to the juice you are paying for each stab you take at this.

**spankmythighs** · 10-28-16, 01:06 PM

You are correct 1.4 to 1.5 on average. All you have to do is take whatever u set your unit size to be and divide by the odds less the 1. So if it is 1.5 and you want to win $20 then you bet will be 40 for your A bet. If u lose then your B bet would be to win your bet of 40 + a profit of 20 divided by .5 which equals 120 and so on.

**spankmythighs** · 10-28-16, 01:09 PM

So to win $20 @ 1.50 odds your bets would be A=40, B=120, C=360, D=1080

**KingHawkins** · 10-28-16, 04:56 PM

So -$1600, or 80 units, if $20 if your target win value of 1 unit.
Good luck! Doesn't sound feasible to pull off (I doubt the profitability also), thanks to a variety of circumstances.

**spankmythighs** · 10-31-16, 09:41 AM

I will update today. I will also track which bet won. So if its a A win, B win, C win etc.

**biggie12** · 10-31-16, 01:15 PM

let us know when your limit is $1.00 :P

**spankmythighs** · 10-31-16, 02:55 PM

System starting Oct. 26th till end of yesterday is 113 - 0! Say what you will but I see some promise.

**spankmythighs** · 10-31-16, 02:55 PM

Only playing ATP events

**spankmythighs** · 10-31-16, 03:30 PM

11-0 today after Paire match. New record 124-0!

**spankmythighs** · 10-31-16, 06:18 PM

Simon added 4 more wins to bring our day total to 15-0 and overall 128-0.

**spankmythighs** · 10-31-16, 07:12 PM

Did Oct 24th and 25th as well which were 16-0 and 17-0. So Monday Oct 24th to Monday Oct 31st 161-0! Not bad.

**spankmythighs** · 11-01-16, 07:50 AM

7 - 0 so far this morning.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-01-16, 11:45 AM

Very interesting but I don't completely understand the system. Please correct me if I am wrong, I have five questions...

Example; Federer as a strong fav over player X.

Federer loses the first point and is down 0-15, then wins a point and evens it up at 15-15, but loses the next point and is at 15-30, by doing so he has lost both ODD service points, correct(question a.)? Now we wait for his next service games, correct(question b.)?

In the third game (his second serving game), we bet on his first ODD service point(question c.)? If he loses that point (0-15), we wait for either a 0-30 or 15-15 result and bet for him to win his ODD service point, correct (question d.)?

If he loses again, we bet one more time for bet D, correct (question e)?

I tried to make this as easy as possible to answer. Feel free to school me with something like this:

a) yes
b) yes
c) yes
d) yes
e) yes

**spankmythighs** · 11-01-16, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Very interesting but I don't completely understand the system. Please correct me if I am wrong, I have five questions...

Example; Federer as a strong fav over player X.

Federer loses the first point and is down 0-15, then wins a point and evens it up at 15-15, but loses the next point and is at 15-30, by doing so he has lost both ODD service points, correct(question a.)? Now we wait for his next service games, correct(question b.)?

In the third game (his second serving game), we bet on his first ODD service point(question c.)? If he loses that point (0-15), we wait for either a 0-30 or 15-15 result and bet for him to win his ODD service point, correct (question d.)?

If he loses again, we bet one more time for bet D, correct (question e)?

I tried to make this as easy as possible to answer. Feel free to school me with something like this:

a) yes
b) yes
c) yes
d) yes
e) yes

Good questions. Here is the answer key:

A)Yes you are correct
B)Yes wait till he is serving again
C)Yes bet on first ODD service point but make sure you do so before the end of the previous game
D) Correct this would be a B bet
E)If he loses the B bet then we wait for his next service game and the first ODD point which would be a C bet.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-01-16, 01:10 PM

Thanks for the prompt reply. I'd add one small variable to your system:

Never begin a chase which could possibly not be ended. An example is the previous matchup between Carreno-Busta and Raonic.

The system was triggered in the 6th game of the second set. The score at the time was 2-3, Raonic did win and theoretically could've won the following two games and you would've not been able to get in all four service points of your chase.... Just trying to help you perfect it...

**spankmythighs** · 11-01-16, 01:25 PM

Mahut - W/A, W/A, W/A, W/A, W/A
Isner - W/A, W/A
Troicki - L/D, W/A, W/A
Berdych - W/A, W/B, W/A, W/A
Sock - none
Lopez - W/B
Karlovic - none
Raonic - none

Experienced our first loss so far which equates to a 75.3 unit loss @ 1.44 avg odds. So new record so far up to Raonic is 174 - 1 or +98.7 units. Note there are quite a few A bet wins so maybe just play A bets. Need more testing to confirm but A bets today so far are 12-3.

**spankmythighs** · 11-01-16, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

Thanks for the prompt reply. I'd add one small variable to your system:

Never begin a chase which could possibly not be ended. An example is the previous matchup between Carreno-Busta and Raonic.

The system was triggered in the 6th game of the second set. The score at the time was 2-3, Raonic did win and theoretically could've won the following two games and you would've not been able to get in all four service points of your chase.... Just trying to help you perfect it...

Yes I have factored this in. If the favorite is ahead in possibly the last set, I shut it down on their 3rd game win.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-01-16, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Mahut - W/A, W/A, W/A, W/A, W/A
Isner - W/A, W/A
Troicki - L/D, W/A, W/A
Berdych - W/A, W/B, W/A, W/A
Sock - none
Lopez - W/B
Karlovic - none
Raonic - none

Experienced our first loss so far which equates to a 75.3 unit loss @ 1.44 avg odds. So new record so far up to Raonic is 174 - 1 or +98.7 units. Note there are quite a few A bet wins so maybe just play A bets. Need more testing to confirm but A bets today so far are 12-3.

12-3 at an average of 1.44 is outstanding. I wouldn't risk the 75 unit hit with that type of hit rate. Greediness could wipe you out. Assuming your unit size is only 1% of BR, and early loss could really kick you in the a$$ and two in a row could destroy you. Have you looked in to a three game chase rather than four??

**spankmythighs** · 11-01-16, 05:42 PM

I think the chances of back to back losses are few and far between. There should be plenty of wins to stay ahead of any losses.

**spankmythighs** · 11-01-16, 05:47 PM

This system will be much like Wallcos NHL strategy as far as wins and losses go. +98.7 units in 8 days is pretty impressive even with a loss.

**spankmythighs** · 11-01-16, 06:00 PM

Adding for today:

Gasquet - W/A
Dimitrov - W/A

**spankmythighs** · 11-01-16, 08:54 PM

This system will be much like Wallcos NHL strategy as far as wins and losses go. +98.7 units in 8 days is pretty impressive even with a loss.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-02-16, 01:09 AM

Sorry, a few more questions;

Do you still have the data from your backtests?, If so, how did bet C's do compared to bet D's?

Were the average odds around 1.41, that is what I was seeing last night while watching a few games live. If so, your C bet would cost you around 36-37 units, while the D bet would be at 138-140 units, that is if your initial return was 1 unit.

I should have some time this morning but I'll be super busy this afternoon. I'll try to help you out with some more backtesting today and tomorrow.

Cheers,
TT

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-02-16, 04:42 AM

Here's what I have so far:

US Open, 2016

Some random Wawrinka, Djokovic and Murry games not even taking in to consideration if they were a fav or not. Here are my results:

A bets) 13-7
B bets) 7-0

Not one bet made it to C... Assuming we'd only chase three games, our risk would only be 40 units. I'll get some more numbers up later.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-02-16, 05:05 AM

More random US Open matchups:

A bets) 10-7
B bets) 4-3
C bets) 3-0
D bets) none

Total tests: 37, 3 game chase record: 37-0

A different approach could be to hit a certain amount of units and stop. let's say your goal is 30 units per tournament, just play the system until then and stop. If you lose a series, keep on going until the tournament ends or you hit your units goal. Just my two cents. I will def be playing this system, I'm all on board!

Great stuff!!

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-02-16, 08:07 AM

I am currently watching both of the French open games on Bet365. Bet365 never offers Point 1, in-game odds. They always offer points two points ahead and therefore are not capable of offering a first point of game because the last point of current game hasn't yet occurred at that time when future odds are set.

Example:

Favorite is leading game 40:30, the next point-odds offered are for point 7 of current game. If favorite wins point, no point 7 will exist. The next game begins and Bet365 sets odds for the second point of game because the current point is the first point of game.

I hope this makes sense.