Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[KVB]

Five games start at 4:00 my time. It’s enough to get the forecasts out there, much less write up analysis. I’ll do what I can.

ACC

The sharp forecast has Wake Forest beating Virginia Tech 76-74. The public gauge has Wake winning 84-82.

Yet again we have the public gauge reflecting the offered lines. The sharp TOTAL triggers an UNDER play and it is reflected in the lines as well with the drop.

This spread is tight and warrants a pass. One thing to note, at Wake -2 the sharp forecast has no play, but at Wake -3, it will track as a play on VTech against the close.

I am tracking the sharp forecast with any discrepancy against the line, even a point.

Big 10

The sharp forecast has Ohio St. beating Rutgers 72-64. The public gauge shows Ohio St. winning 70-64.

With this line the spread moved toward the sharp line which lined with the TOTAL opener. Yet the spread opened at the public gauge and the TOTAL has moved towards the public gauge.

Nice effect market. Penn State and Nebraska are taking their time with a late tie game and I am forced to pass here for the trading account. If a play comes, it will come late and I think it may be an OVER. Metrics indicate a split in the two games in this conference for the TOTAL, one UNDER, and one OVER. I wonder if the low scoring first game will hit OT and finish OVER the spread. It would be no surprise given the metrics.

[KVB]

Big East

The sharp forecast has Georgetown beating St. John’s 74-73. The public gauge has Georgetown winning 80-76.

Again we have an UNDER triggered and the spread of 1 point is dead. If anything, we’ve seen some public Georgetown money move the line to -1.5. Note that this changes how the sharp forecast is tracked.

These evening games are feeling a bit sharp in the lines offered and look to make the majority of players gamble here. I will pass here and wait for the next Big East game.

Big 12

The sharp forecast has Oklahoma winning 75-62. The public gauge shows TCU winning 72-71.

The moneyline and TOTALS are split here and movement has gone away from the sharp line. This is one of a few games in which the two teams played each other in the last game of the regular season. Among these rematch games you can guess what the give and take tendency of the markets will drive. These guys pushed the TOTAL last time but Oklahoma covered the spread. Contrarian bettors may be aligning with the public here looking for what would be considered revenge.

It feels like a trap to me and I would be careful fading the sharp forecast here, even if it does feel out of line with the market as a whole. Because of the revenge factor, I’m not taking Oklahoma either, it’s a pass in the trading account. TCU bettors have been warned.

SEC

The sharp forecast shows Miss. St. beating LSU 76-73. The public gauge shows Miss. St. winning 82-77.

The opening line of Miss St. -5 has moved away from my line but the TOTALS, split in the numbers above, move toward the sharp forecast.

This is another rematch from the last game of the season here where Miss St. covered in an OVER. While LSU would be the revenge play and is also closer sharp prediction, Miss. St. is getting the pressure. It’s the first game in this conference, but I would be more apt to take the UNDER in this game rather than LSU if agreeing with the sharp forecasts. The next SEC game is also a rematch; perhaps we see more give and take between the games, rather than among them.

[KVB]

...Penn State and Nebraska are taking their time with a late tie game and I am forced to pass here for the trading account. If a play comes, it will come late and I think it may be an OVER. Metrics indicate a split in the two games in this conference for the TOTAL, one UNDER, and one OVER. I wonder if the low scoring first game will hit OT and finish OVER the spread. It would be no surprise given the metrics...

A 23 point OT period left the final score at 143 total points. The line closed at 142.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KVB]

Be careful taking Ohio St. and Rutgers UNDER, as that OT move on the TOTAL was pretty predictable. If taking the UNDER in the next game was that easy...it is sports betting after all.

I'm passing on what should be UNDER 134.5 for Rutgers vs. Ohio State.

So it should be the UNDER, but...

[KVB]

Atlantic 10

The sharp forecast has Duquesne beating St. Louis 67-63. The public gauge has Duquesne winning 67-64.

That line has moved from Duquesne -2 to -4; right at the sharp line and around the public gauge. I see metrics steering money to Duquesne making this one of those “it should be Duquesne, but…

Obviously real value has deteriorated on the favorite. I wrote this about the first Atl 10 game between St. Joe’s and UMASS earlier, the game is still playing…

...In general, it's the second trade of a middle that pays off, but I would not counter the forecast and movement by taking St. Joe's plus the points. Not this time...

This appears to be solid as UMASS has a 16 point lead late. In a move of give and take, perhaps countering the forecast by taking St. Louis plus the points is the winning trade in the second game.

We have time to make a decision on this one and this is an instance where the early game may deceive.

[KVB]

...This appears to be solid as UMASS has a 16 point lead late. In a move of give and take, perhaps countering the forecast by taking St. Louis plus the points is the winning trade in the second game.

We have time to make a decision on this one and this is an instance where the early game may deceive...

Oh look! It's a 4 point game with just over a minute left in the game, the line closed at UMASS -4.

Anybody picking up what I'm putting down? It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. As I've said before, once you can understand what's being brought, you can appreciate how it's being brought.

[smokenjoke]

Good Luck K.

[KVB]

Good Luck K.

So far so good. These posts have been a bit intensive and coming fast. I probably should have started a whole new thread but having to answer the way we do things would be a distraction.

I'm posting and tracking through all the tournaments, tomorrow will be tough day. Tonight, there are 7 games left for me to post and 5 of them start in an hour.

It's tough to add much in analysis too it all as well. I can't possibly hit all the points, but I'm putting some out there.

Once results are tracked all this mess of forecasts and posts will be summed up and a bit cleaner.

I hope I haven't hijacked the thread too bad. Someone may need to come in and regulate...

[KVB]

UMASS ended up covering as the comeback by St. Joe's failed.

In the end, there are too many late reasons to pick up St. Louis, it's just too easy.

In my opinion, it should be St. Louis, but...

I'm passing even in the trading account. Should be another good game.

[KVB]

Conference USA

The sharp forecast has Marshall winning 84-70. The public gauge has Marshall winning 90-84.

We have yet another instance where the public line is close to the offered line. Both the spread and TOTAL have moved towards the sharp forecast.

The sharp forecast has been correct against the spread and moneyline for all three games in this conference. In other metrics, I can see money being steered towards Marshall and have countered that money and the forecast with Florida Atlantic +6.5 (-105) over Marshall.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Conference USA

The sharp forecast has Marshall winning 84-70. The public gauge has Marshall winning 90-84.

We have yet another instance where the public line is close to the offered line. Both the spread and TOTAL have moved towards the sharp forecast.

The sharp forecast has been correct against the spread and moneyline for all three games in this conference. In other metrics, I can see money being steered towards Marshall and have countered that money and the forecast with Florida Atlantic +6.5 (-105) over Marshall.

Good Luck.

I also picked up Florida Atlantic +7 (-110) over Marshall as second shot at that line.

[smokenjoke]

I hope I haven't hijacked the thread too bad. Someone may need to come in and regulate...

No need to worry about that. You produce good reads I appreciate. Keep doing what you do!!!

[KVB]

Pac 12

The sharp forecast has Colorado beating Washington St. 76-61. The public gauge has Colorado winning 77-70.

The spread has moved towards the sharp line and the TOTAL has gone up, but came back down to the opener.

The money is a bit more split here than the last two Pac 12 games. The sharp forecast has failed ATS in both Pac 12 games today but I am not eager to back the forecast here. This is a game to watch and given what happened in the first two games we may have a play for the final Pac 12 game tonight. Coming off a successful market read in the Pac 12, this one will be a pass in the trading account, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington St. covered the spread as well.

Big 12

The sharp forecast has Texas Tech beating Texas 73-67. The public gauge shows Texas Tech winning 67-62.

Again the public gauge is in line with the offered market and while there has been pressure towards the sharp line, the books have not moved the line. I know there is some Texas pressure, but I’m not sure if it’s enough to suppress the line. The books could be holding out on the movement here, let’s see if it moves.

I’m passing on this play but I can say that a line that opens in one spot, but never moves, points to a favorite bet. Of course, other handicapping must come into play. I like Tech, but don’t like the market on it based on what I see for the trading account.

[KVB]

SEC

The sharp forecast says Auburn beats Missouri 79-71. The public gauge has Auburn winning 81-74.

The spread has moved slightly towards the forecasts (from -6 to -7) and the TOTAL sits at 153.5, between both forecasts.

I’m avoiding the fairly sharp spread here but look at the TOTAL. In the first SEC game the public gauge had OVER and the sharp forecast UNDER. In the second game, we see the same situation. In the first game, there was UNDER. A natural give and take would say we should be seeing an OVER here.

But add that to a list of other reasons why knowledgeable market analysts seek plays and we see quite a few like-minded contrarians seeking the OVER.

I’m countering what appears to be an attempt to sell the OVER and have bought UNDER 154 (-108) for Missouri vs. Auburn.

There’s reason money moves certain directions, so I am essentially being a contrarian to the contrarian.

Let the battle of wits begin...

[KVB]

ACC

The sharp forecast shows Virginia beating Pittsburgh 63-57. The public gauge says Virginia wins 64-54.

Public gauge near the market again. This conference has already had a settlement with Vtech beating Wake, and both currently settled money and this final game see some splits.

The public gauge may be right on the line, but rest assured the public is picking up Virginia…they likely will until the end to the NCAA tourney.

When that line moves to 10, some sharp money seeks value and buys, this keeps it around -9.5.

As things are so split, I am passing here as well. I trust the forecast by itself on this one.

[KVB]

Big East

The sharp forecast shows Xavier winning 73-69. The public gauge has Xavier winning 78-67.

The line has moved from once again near the public gauge (I think the books were lazy and catering to an average market today with the lines) towards the sharp forecast for both the spread and the total.

I also think this line may have been inflated initially to be bought down. There is public pressure on Xavier, but that underdog line has been hit for sure. The books weren’t afraid to collapse the line to -7.5 from a high of 10.5 (opened at 9).

I think money is well split here between groups and think there is a similar situation to the ACC game with Pitt and Virginia. I’m passing on a play for the trading account as one play would be to counter the pressure and take Xavier at the best line you can but, based on some metrics, a DePaul upset is not out of the cards.

I think we can find future opportunity in the Big East by paying attention to this game’s results. Depaul may show up tonight to cover that opener or win the game.

[KVB]

...Metrics indicate a split in the two games in this conference for the TOTAL, one UNDER, and one OVER. I wonder if the low scoring first game will hit OT and finish OVER the spread. It would be no surprise given the metrics...

A 23 point OT period left the final score at 143 total points. The line closed at 142.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it...

Indeed, the Penn St. vs. Nebraska went to OT to bring the OVER, while Rutgers vs. Ohio St. ended up UNDER in one of the lowest scoring games of the day.

[KVB]

I think that's every game, with one final Pac 12 game to go tonight.

[KVB]

...That line has moved from Duquesne -2 to -4; right at the sharp line and around the public gauge. I see metrics steering money to Duquesne making this one of those “it should be Duquesne, but…

...UMASS has a 16 point lead late. In a move of give and take, perhaps countering the forecast by taking St. Louis plus the points is the winning trade in the second game.

We have time to make a decision on this one and this is an instance where the early game may deceive...

Despite a late 2nd half comeback, UMASS held and St Louis went on to beat Duquesne.

This should have been a trading account play. I was just a bit rushed I guess.

[KVB]

Pac 12

The sharp forecast has USC beating Washington 79-69. The public gauge has USC winning 85-74.

Even to the final game, the public gauge is at the opening spread. Heavy public action has moved the line a point away from the sharp forecast.

The public gauge has 159 points and the sharp forecast 148. That line opened at 155 and has moved towards the sharp forecast. The TOTAL opened a little high due to pressures on the OVER, but I think the action today has alleviated that pressure to a certain extent, along with sharper bettors on the UNDER.

The sharp forecast has failed ATS in each of the three Pac 12 games so far today. The third game Colorado pushed the 10 point opener but didn’t cover the 11 point closer. I think money has been driven to USC in a way that it was driven to Marshall, who beat FAU in a blowout.

In an effort to realize some give and take and countering the movement, I have picked up Washington +12.5 (-105) over USC.

Let’s see if the sharp forecast can get some success against the spread in the Pac 12, if not we know money is starting to build in a specific direction.

Good Luck.

It's been a long day, tomorrow may be even longer.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

question of the day:


where was this trucker going, and why was he going there so fast?

He had to take a shit really bad.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

just still feeling overall blah , kvb

[Fidel_CashFlow]

thats all

[KVB]

question of the day:


where was this trucker going, and why was he going there so fast?


first, the trucker:

Perhaps just some really good road head. Some girls can make a trucker crash if you nomsayin'.

[KVB]

just still feeling overall blah , kvb

Well I suggest getting a good BJ, and by what you described earlier, you best not do it while driving or you'll end up like the trucker above.

Seriously though, fight the blues any way you can. I'm finally recovering from that last round of shots and it's time to start getting back to "normal" for both of us.

[KVB]

Here are results from today’s conferences that had TWO games in them.

Notice any Give and Take of the markets?

Atl 10:
Game 1: Favorite and Under
Game 2: Upset and Over
Sharp forecast: ATS 1-1, ML 1-1, Tot 1-1 openers 0-2 closers

Big 12:
1: Fav and Over
2: Upset and Under
Forecast: ATS 0-2, ML 0-2, Tot 0-2

Big East:
1: Upset and Under
2: Fav and Under (Line went from -9 to -10.5 to -7.5; it ended at 11 points).
Forecast: ATS 0-1 open 1-1 close, ML 1-1, Tot 2-0 open 1-1 close

Big 10:
1: Fav and Over
2: Upset and Under
Forecast: ATS 1-1, ML 1-1, Tot 1-0 open 1-1 close

SEC:
1: Fav and Under
2: Upset and Over
Forecast: ATS 0-2, ML 1-1, Tot 1-1

[KVB]

...If there is tailing by anyone, follow the sharp forecast and things should be fine, but be wary of the TOTALS, some metrics indicate they could go into a slump...

Quick forecast results after Tuesday and Wednesday…

Against the Spread:
Open: 11-11 (50%), Close 13-12 (52%)

Against the Moneyline:
Overall 15-9 (62.5%), predicting favorites 14-7 (66.7%), predicting upsets 1-2 (33.3%). These ML results are very consistent with past results; like football, the variance and volatility is small with moneyline forecasts. I know profit matters, not record, but the record is very consistent.

Against the TOTALS:
Openers: 13-11 (54.17%), Close 12-13 (48%)

[KVB]

Just to get them posted here are 4 pairs of golfer this week: Haas Berger; Na and Donald; Lingmerth and Spaun; Stuard and Danny Lee.

I picked up Daniel Berger +3000 and Gary Woodland +2600 to win the Valspar Championship.

These guys may be up there on Sunday. I think Woodland is priming for a win in the next weeks or months, perhaps this year.

[KVB]

ACC

Stacking forecast says North Carolina wins 69-61. The public gauge has NC winning 73-67.

This line has moved from an early -7.5 to -8.5, through the sharp forecast of 8 points. The public gauge may seem low at 6 points, but there is heavy public buying on NC in the market.

Believe it or not, some metrics indicate an upset in this game and it ordinarily would be a trading account play. As this is an early game I am passing and hoping it leads to other market reads.

Big 10

The sharp forecast says Michigan beats Illinois 71-66. The stacking forecast says Michigan wins 69-64.

The spread has moved towards the forecast, despite tickets and money on the favorite and the Total has moved toward the forecast then back down to the public gauge. I don’t think it’s Illinois in this one but it’s another trading pass. It’s the first game of the day and money is only starting to move.

Big East

The sharp forecast say Villanova wins 85-63. The public gauge has 83-66.

The spread is currently below both lines and tickets are coming in on Nova. This line may rise. I have an early opener as high as 20 points but much of the world seems to have picked up the line at 13 or even the with the NOVA pressure and -14.

Again it’s the first game so I am passing with the trading account.

[KVB]

Atl 10

The sharp forecast has Davidson winning 70-69 and the public gauge has Davidson winning 78-74.

I don’t think there is a lot of action on this game and with the forecasts having the same moneyline as the public gauge in all the games so far has me at another pass. The Total is split as well.

Big 12

Sharp forecast says Oklahoma State beats Iowa State 78-74. The public gauge says OK State wins 84-82.

This line is closer to the public gauge and there is clear support for Iowa State. This line opened at OK State -1 and has moved to a pick, away from my line. I see bigger games in this conference today to watch and we may end up in a bet then.

Conf USA

Sharp forecast has Mid Tenn State beating Texas San Antonio 76-61. The public gauge says Mid Tenn State wins 71-55.

The forecasts are close to the offered spread but those totals are split. I think money is fairly split here too, with the exception of the moneyline, which is all MTSU.

SEC

The sharp forecast has Georgia beating Tennessee 75-69. The public gauge says Georgia wins 72-70.

This line opened early with Tenn -1 and you can see why it’s moved to Georgia -1. There is obvious pressure from the public and advantage players. Tennessee favored was an early line and most houses picked up Georgia anywhere from a pick to GA -1.5; this line will likely close at GA -1. Even though this is first line we’ve seen cross the pick em in movement, I don’t think the books are showing all the Georgia pressure. This game starts a little later than others.

The Pac 12 and American conferences have their first game later than the rest. For these conferences in play early, I think it is best to watch how money begins to flow. Notice that the forecasts are in agreement with the public gauge as far as moneylines. There will be some winners and losers in there, but we should start to see the money stack fairly early.

[KVB]

Something to note about the Conference US. There were four games yesterday. The sharp forecast failed against the TOTAL in the first game and was successful on every other prediction (ATS, ML, Totals) the rest of the day.

[KVB]

Pac 12

The sharp forecast has Oregon beating Zona State 85-65. The public gauge has Oregon winning 84-71.

The public gauge is again closer to the market but both the spread and Total have ticked towards my line.

First game once again a pass. There two good reads in the Pac 12 yesterday and both hit. Let’s see how it develops today.

AAC

The sharp forecast has Temple beating East Carolina 69-66. The public gauge says Temple wins 68-62.

The public gauge has been very close to these lines this Tourney season and it’s again true here. We haven’t seen movement in the spread at all. Heavy action has hit Temple but there is some underdog play. Is this line showing a balance in the books?

These AAC lines are a little more seasoned as it is day one of the AAC tournament. This game starts later but I am watching the line.

...I’m passing on this play but I can say that a line that opens in one spot, but never moves, points to a favorite bet...

I wrote this about the Texas vs. TTech game yesterday. The line never moved off of -4.5, but the prediction was wrong…the upset came in that game.

Keep an eye on that Temple -5. If it doesn’t move, consider the favorite this time. I see other metrics against East Carolina here as well.

[KVB]

Those are early games in each conference. I know there's a lot of passing on these plays for the trading account, but being able to pass on bets is one big advantage the player has.

When following the money, watching is valuable

Another note on tracking the forecasts. In the second Big East game yesterday I had a total of 142. The line opened at 144 and closed at 141.5. The game ended an UNDER.

This play was successful against the opener, but failed against the closer. That is recorded for both totals and when it happens with spreads (Clemson succeeded against the +7.5 but failed against the +6.5 closer as Duke won by 7).

Also, I had Wake beating VTech by 2 points. The line opened at -2 and moved to -3. My forecast had no prediction against the opener but succeeded against the closing line as it had VTech covering the 3 points (they won outright).

And remember, I am using no discrepancy here. I am considering it a prediction with as little as a half point difference. Now that's being hard on oneself.

GRAAAAPES!

[KVB]

ACC

Stacking forecast says North Carolina wins 69-61. The public gauge has NC winning 73-67...
...Believe it or not, some metrics indicate an upset in this game and it ordinarily would be a trading account play. As this is an early game I am passing and hoping it leads to other market reads....

[KVB]