Would you hedge? Want some opinions here

[amolg24]

Would you hedge? If so, would you take Spur's ML or Spread (gives you a chance at winning both)

247817430-1	6/12/14 2:57pm	$150.00	$200.19	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	6/12/14 9:00pm NBA Basketball 708 Miami Heat -245* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Antonio Spurs
				Win	6/12/14 3:45pm MLB Baseball 958 San Francisco Giants -152* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Washington Nationals (B Treinen - R must Start T Hudson - R must Start)
247816525-1	6/12/14 2:49pm	$100.00	$208.57	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	6/12/14 9:00pm NBA Basketball 708 Miami Heat -245* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Antonio Spurs
				Win	6/12/14 3:45pm MLB Baseball 958 San Francisco Giants -148* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Washington Nationals (B Treinen - R must Start T Hudson - R must Start)
				Win	6/12/14 4:00pm International Soccer 2 Brazil (World Cup) -325* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Croatia (World Cup)
247800803-1	6/12/14 12:18pm	$50.00	$194.19	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	6/12/14 9:00pm NBA Basketball 708 Miami Heat -240* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Antonio Spurs
				Win	6/12/14 1:05pm MLB Baseball 954 Philadelphia Phillies -102* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Diego Padres (E Stults - L must Start K Kendrick - R must Start)
				Win	6/12/14 2:05pm Norway Soccer 219 Sarpsborg (NOR-T)/Haugesund (NOR-T) 1st Half Over 1 -135*
247791868-1	6/12/14 10:12am	$100.00	$208.71	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	6/12/14 9:00pm NBA Basketball 708 Miami Heat -235* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Antonio Spurs
				Win	6/12/14 1:05pm MLB Baseball 954 Philadelphia Phillies +1½ -180* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Diego Padres (E Stults - L must Start K Kendrick - R must Start)
				Win	6/12/14 3:45pm MLB Baseball 958 San Francisco Giants +1½ -255* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Washington Nationals (B Treinen - R must Start T Hudson - R must Start)

[Dirty Sanchez]

Are you a gambler? If you truly are...let it ride and go for the score You lose you're out $400..Heat win...it's Colt 45 for the weekend!

[boeing power]

It depends on a couple of things.

1. How strong do you feel about heat winning?

2. How much will a heat loss hurt your bankroll?

And if you hedge, take the points.

[amolg24]

I feel strongly about the heat tonight...I was going to play them on the spread but then decided I would do a couple parlays and see how it works out and now I kinda just wanted to see people's opinion on it. I normally NEVER hedge and always let it ride (which bites me too often) but I've been on heater lately and feel like I should just take the guaranteed money and not sweat it out and maybe just bet it live.

The win loss swing would be worth about 10% of my BR

[rake922]

Lebron James' playoff record: 66-53.
With Joe Crawford: 25-3
W/o ref Joe Crawford: 41-50!

[Dirty Sanchez]

Lebron James' playoff record: 66-53.
With Joe Crawford: 25-3
W/o ref Joe Crawford: 41-50!

That's one hell of a stat...yikes!

[amolg24]

Thats some crazy stats...if i hedged on money i would still get 500+ with heat win

[msutter]

If I hedged this one I would put $300 on Spurs +5.5 so I had a chance to win all bets

[boeing power]

Lebron James' playoff record: 66-53.
With Joe Crawford: 25-3
W/o ref Joe Crawford: 41-50!

No way those are correct.

[The Giant]

Lebron James' playoff record: 66-53.
With Joe Crawford: 25-3
W/o ref Joe Crawford: 41-50!

I've seen these stats floating around, they aren't real.

[BIGDAY]

Let it RIDE!!!

[amolg24]

Let it RIDE!!!

I'm letting it ride...lets go heat!

[brooks85]

really all depends on your bankroll size which would have to be pretty damn big. There is no doubt hedging is the play here tho. Even for me, I'll take a guaranteed 400 over winning 800 on a bet. Definitely do not want to hedge with the spread cause miami going to lay a beatdown tonight.

[Kermit]

I'd let it ride and then maybe wait until halftime or if the Heat get a large lead do an in-game wager, then you can sprinkle some on the Spurs's ML at higher odds.

[bleedtoledo]

Tease spurs with a couple week one NFL

[daneblazer]

If you're going to hedge, don't do the bet in the first place

[brooks85]

If you're going to hedge, don't do the bet in the first place

hmm that is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard, no joke. Come on, you gotta be smarter than that?

For example, surely you have heard of a hedge fund before?

Fact of the matter is if you don't hedge this bet it just isn't responsible investing. Do you want to be a gambler or an investor?

[thunderous]

Of course you gotta take the Spurs points....its a no brainer.

You have the opportunity to make more with house money!!

[daneblazer]

hmm that is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard, no joke. Come on, you gotta be smarter than that?

For example, surely you have heard of a hedge fund before?

Yes, why hedge on small parlays? If it's life changing or big money on a future or something, hedge away. Otherwise just let it ride. Go ahead and hedge 1 out of 10 parlays you make and see how well you do. You're going to have to hit a lot more parlays to come out ahead.

Edit...just read the whole thing...if you wanted to take Spurs +points for a small amount, go ahead. I'm on my phone and don't feel like typing much Im still not a big fan of hedging....

[jtoler]

If you're going to hedge, don't do the bet in the first place

[easyliving]

let it ride this is a no brainer.

[brooks85]

Yes, why hedge on small parlays? If it's life changing or big money on a future or something, hedge away. Otherwise just let it ride. Go ahead and hedge 1 out of 10 parlays you make and see how well you do. You're going to have to hit a lot more parlays to come out ahead.

lol small? because there is no one on this site that winning an extra $400 risk free isn't better than winning 800 on chance. That's why.

[amolg24]

Yeah I mean if your saying to hedge because Miami is going to lay a beatdown....well that doesn't make much sense..lol

I am officially letting it ride. As I mentioned earlier, the win loss swing is about 10% of my BR.

[TheCentaur]

hmm that is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard, no joke. Come on, you gotta be smarter than that?

For example, surely you have heard of a hedge fund before?

Fact of the matter is if you don't hedge this bet it just isn't responsible investing. Do you want to be a gambler or an investor?

I disagree brooks

hedging loses money in the long run

unless its life changing money or you have to have rent or something hedging just shouldn't be done, unless that hedge bet is a +ev bet on it's own

Hedge funds aren't a good analogy because you are paying someone a percentage for their expertise (that you are conceding you don't have) which is documented to be profitable historically.

Hedging the last leg of a parlay by sacrificing some more juice to lock in a smaller profit isn't comparable.

[brooks85]

Yeah I mean if your saying to hedge because Miami is going to lay a beatdown....well that doesn't make much sense..lol

I am officially letting it ride. As I mentioned earlier, the win loss swing is about 10% of my BR.

Hello, I'm human. Humans can be wrong. Thus why intelligent people avoid risk any chance, like tonight's opportunity for you.

[brooks85]

I disagree brooks

hedging loses money in the long run

unless its life changing money or you have to have rent or something hedging just shouldn't be done, unless that hedge bet is a +ev bet on it's own

Hedge funds aren't a good analogy because you are paying someone a percentage for their expertise (that you are conceding you don't have) which is documented to be profitable historically.

Hedging the last leg of a parlay by sacrificing some more juice to lock in a smaller profit isn't comparable.

Hedge funds are perfectly analogy actually and it's irrelevant who you pay, the decision they make is either right or wrong. Bottom line is they still hedge to protect against it being right or wrong. It's unreal but I guess not surprising people find this difficult.

Also, you should do some research on hedge funds "expertise." It's been proven, hedge funds as a whole, couldn't beat a monkey on a dart board.

[brooks85]

I disagree brooks

hedging loses money in the long run

unless its life changing money or you have to have rent or something hedging just shouldn't be done, unless that hedge bet is a +ev bet on it's own

Hedge funds aren't a good analogy because you are paying someone a percentage for their expertise (that you are conceding you don't have) which is documented to be profitable historically.

Hedging the last leg of a parlay by sacrificing some more juice to lock in a smaller profit isn't comparable.

and I guarantee you have no data to back that up for situations like this bet.

[amolg24]

I honestly made this thread in the first place because I was truly interested in seeing other's opinions on this matter. I think this is a common topic if you are a daily parlay better like myself because the thought does always come into your head...should I hedge, should I not. I NEVER hedge, but I have made this a habit so its really hard to go through with a hedge. Wanted some more opinions on it so I can see if I should change my strategy.

It seems to me that the general consensus is that it is situational....it all depends on the game that's remaining in the parlay and how you feel about it personally as everyone has a different take on it, you will say accordingly, hedge or don't hedge.

Are there any Spurs backers here that would advise me to let it ride?

[Slimpickens]

You turned a -235 favorite into alittle over a +200 bet. If you like them to win no reason to hedge, gotta like the situation you are in win or lose.

[TheCentaur]

Hedge funds are perfectly analogy actually and it's irrelevant who you pay, the decision they make is either right or wrong. Bottom line is they still hedge to protect against it being right or wrong. It's unreal but I guess not surprising people find this difficult.

Also, you should do some research on hedge funds "expertise." It's been proven, hedge funds as a whole, couldn't beat a monkey on a dart board.

Are you saying hedging this parlay is like buying into a hedge fund or it's like what a hedge fund does?

[brooks85]

lol unless it loses then you lost out on a free $400 and there is absolutely no intelligent way you can slice that to make you feel better. Again, it all has to do with your bankroll size which I'm about positive you don't fall into the "let it ride" category mathematically but maybe you do. Game time.

[TheCentaur]

and I guarantee you have no data to back that up for situations like this bet.

I'm sure data supports it, but I don't have actual data and I don't need it, it's mathematics

Imagine if you got even money on the flip of a coin, and you bet 1000 parlays of 3 heads in a row. If you hedged every time there were 2 heads in a row by hedge betting -110 on the next flip being tails, it will cost you money no question about it

[jtoler]

Its not about "if you like them to win" ride it out, have you not lost a bet before? Ok then, let the everyday people look at betting as gambling, you should be looking at it as investing. Always hedge.

[jtoler]

I'm sure data supports it, but I don't have actual data and I don't need it, it's mathematics

Imagine if you got even money on the flip of a coin, and you bet 1000 parlays of 3 heads in a row. If you hedged every time there were 2 heads in a row by hedge betting -110 on the next flip being tails, it will cost you money no question about it

Youre looking at it wrong.

[boeing power]

Its not about "if you like them to win" ride it out, have you not lost a bet before? Ok then, let the everyday people look at betting as gambling, you should be looking at it as investing. Always hedge.

If you're always hedging just play the games straight up.