How often does the spread/line movement really matter ??

[Pete0]

Anybody know how often getting a different number actually affected win/loss outcome ?

Sure, "sharps" consistently get the best no. and ofcourse a -3 is mathematically better than a -3.5.
But in many cases, it does not seem to matter.

For example a -10 opener got bet upto -12.5 close to tip off. Is the value really lost all that much on -12.5 ?
Unless its a drastic move like -10 to -18 because of injury report/weather etc. I dont think so.

Moreover, arent books scared of getting middled on any given spread/total ??

[Bigbill365]

in the nfl that .5 will make or break a season belive it or not

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Someone at another forum had a local that let people bet off wednesdays lines in the paper. He bet every line that beat the line from wednesday. He kept a record of if he bet the closing line from what he was getting.

Paper was something like +58 units. If he bet the closing line he'd be -14 units. So beating the line by 1-2 points is wrth 72 units.

[lunchbawks]

It doesn't matter until your in the losing side of things, gnome say in

[JayLA]

Good question.

[k13]

Someone at another forum had a local that let people bet off wednesdays lines in the paper. He bet every line that beat the line from wednesday. He kept a record of if he bet the closing line from what he was getting.

Paper was something like +58 units. If he bet the closing line he'd be -14 units. So beating the line by 1-2 points is wrth 72 units.

Joke.

[rm18]

Maybe it matters 5% of the time, but if you are betting a lot of money 5% can be a lot of money and also can be the difference between winning and losing

[Duff85]

It is the difference between winning and losing in the long term.

Handicapping is useless for most posters here (they just don't understand what goes into the line enough to make a better number). If I could give one piece of advice - doesn't matter what method your using to pick games (you could test it by flipping a coin to pick your games and then recording the best possible line you can get) - have at least 5 accounts and always try to get the best price in the market or close to it. This by itself can take someone from a losing bettor to a winning one.

[JayLA]

It is the difference between winning and losing in the long term.

Handicapping is useless for most posters here (they just don't understand what goes into the line enough to make a better number). If I could give one piece of advice - doesn't matter what method your using to pick games (you could test it by flipping a coin to pick your games and then recording the best possible line you can get) - have at least 5 accounts and always try to get the best price in the market or close to it. This by itself can take someone from a losing bettor to a winning one.

No offense, duff. Youre probably well respected around here. Could you share with us some examples documented vegas line movements that benefited you?

[Duff85]

No offense, duff. Youre probably well respected around here. Could you share with us some examples documented vegas line movements that benefited you?

Considering my NFL season is currently 2k in the hole - probably not the example you are looking for. :-)

You can have a look at the plays in my spreadsheet (they are pretty old now - I got lazy updating them) and compare them to Oddsportal.com to see that getting a better price or number in games has made a difference. I am one of the people who handicapping is useless for. For instance I have no idea why Dallas Mavericks has moved from -5.5 to getting juiced at -6... but I know that I want to back Dallas. Now I look for the best number - SBRBook has Dallas-5 (-110).

Comparing the value of those numbers -
If we believe that the fair value of Dallas-6 is -107, that means the fair value of -5.5 is about -116 and the fair value of -5 is about -130. These translate with the fact that -5.5 is going to win more often than -6, as will -5 to -5.5.

Now we can compare all of the available lines that we have and see that SBRBook is the best possible number we can get so we bet it.

The guy that bets -6 (-114) is going to win that game less often than I am and he is going to be paid out less when he wins. All because I spent a bit of time comparing lines. Contrary to what people think it doesn't guarantee a winner - the guy taking -6 is going to win about 51.8% (a losing proposition long term at -114) of the time, i'm going to win my bet about 56.5% (enough to win at -110) of the time. The margins are razor thin, but this is the difference between being a winner and loser.

That in a nut shell is steam chasing. People think that steam chasing is betting Dallas-6 because it has moved, but it is actually trying to find Dallas at the price or better before they moved and betting that.

Also go ahead and throw a few points on that Dallas bet - I think its a good one.

[Duff85]

Also The Giant posted some examples of how sharp the line is in the NBA here.

[unluckysob]

totals hit closer to number than sides---

[thetrinity]

um honestly, it doesnt seem to matter much in nfl games, i never see the book get middled, i do think it matters in other sports.

[wantitall4moi]

I have posted it a million times. Spread matters in about 16-17% of the games. in the NFL anyway. In the NBA its around 20% of the time, NCAA football 24% of the time, NCAA basketball 21#of the time, on SIDES anyway.

Which means for the most part if you can pick a SU winner youre going to cover the spread, especially in professional sports.

In the NFL getting the VERY BEST number available versus the VERY WORST number available will raise your win percentage less than 3%. Thats looking at every game since 2000 and factoring in lines and results. In the NBA its is slightly over 4% since 2002. NCAA football its around 4%also, NCAA hoops (lots of moves, but also a lot of games) its around 4.5% difference.

The biggest spot where line really matters is NCAA basketball totals. But mostly due to recent issues with them, but they have also been tightened up a lot the past 3 years. I wont get into it as the rate has dropped significantly since 2007.

Good adage in the pros anyway, if you like a favorite and theyre less than 7 points (in any sport) lay the points. If you like the dog (less than 7 points) bet the ML. This year in the NFL has surely tested that rationale as the dogs have in fact been covering but not winning SU. So while dogs have been 'covering' at an historic rate they arent doing it like they have in the past, namely simply winning the game.

Bottomline is spread is semi meaningless for the most part, and getting the very best number isnt worth nearly the worry people put into it. They just like to say it because someone who sis supposedly smart said so and they just believe it. But if they ever had the ability to look and check they would see it really doesnt matter. Only people who think the line matters are guys who are on those rare games and get bunt by a 'bad beat'. They dont bother remembering every other game they didnt get the best number and won anyway.

[thetrinity]

good points by want it all.

for fun i researched this season of nfl, sides only.

i came up with 6 games where getting the best number mattered. outa the 6, only 2 of them a loss could have turned into a win, the other 4 you could have gotten a push if you got a great number, and 4 of those 6 games happen in the first 3 weeks, i can only think as the season goes on these situations get fewer and further between.

[Duff85]

i can only think as the season goes on these situations get fewer and further between.

Because the closing lines aren't going to get sharper as the season goes on and sharps can plug more reliable data into their models?

[Duff85]

will raise your win percentage less than 3%. Thats looking at every game since 2000 and factoring in lines and results. In the NBA its is slightly over 4% since 2002. NCAA football its around 4%also, NCAA hoops (lots of moves, but also a lot of games) its around 4.5% difference.

getting the very best number isnt worth nearly the worry people put into it. They just like to say it because someone who sis supposedly smart said so and they just believe it.

You contradict yourself - take your win rate from 50% to 54% ats that's a massive difference.

[thetrinity]

Because the closing lines aren't going to get sharper as the season goes on and sharps can plug more reliable data into their models?

ya somethin like that. guarantee that if you ran this for nfl spreads against ncaaf, ncaab, nba spreads then youd find the nfl spreads get middled the least %.

[MeatWad]

Enough to matter. Considering my picks only have a small % edge, 1-2 pt swings obliterate the little edge I rely on to make my money.

[MeatWad]

The best way to beat the line moves, is get in on good value opening lines before they move against you. I also like to bet the games around start time, as the lines are volatile with soo much casual money betting on gameday. Usually I will go for games I considered have moved too much that I passed on earlier, such as adding to my Vandy bet last week when they dipped below -7.

[k13]

Who here is going to predict every line movement to get the possible number?

All you hear is "get x favorite before it goes up" blah blah blah, few days later the line is 2 points against them.

Then you have the people who can't pass up a "good number" so instead of picking the winner they are so happy to get a good number. lol For example Jaguars +4.5 on thursday, Romney +400 or more.......

[Pete0]

Great posts by rm18 and wantitall4moi !

Ok so its not as much important, but I guess for that 56 % grinder or maybe even 60 % winner that few % would matter.
Fortunately for me, I'm aiming on hitting 90% long term, so shouldnt be a big of a deal betting on gameday

[k13]

http://www.statsprofessor.org/p/stats.html

Scroll down thru some of the graphs/stats, should answer your questions.

[tto827]

I think we could safely say that for big favorites ie. Alabama football, Oregon football, Kansas/Kentucky/duke/unc basketball, the spreads are going to increase from their opening number as the public jumps on them more than 50% of the time. So BTCL people, you are telling me that just betting favorites early in the week should be profitable?

[Pete0]

Who here is going to predict every line movement to get the possible number?

All you hear is "get x favorite before it goes up" blah blah blah, few days later the line is 2 points against them.

Then you have the people who can't pass up a "good number" so instead of picking the winner they are so happy to get a good number. lol For example Jaguars +4.5 on thursday, Romney +400 or more.......

So true

All you hear is "get x favorite before it goes up" blah blah blah, few days later the line is 2 points against them.

and they might still end up winning !!

[Pete0]

The best way to beat the line moves, is get in on good value opening lines before they move against you. I also like to bet the games around start time, as the lines are volatile with soo much casual money betting on gameday. Usually I will go for games I considered have moved too much that I passed on earlier, such as adding to my Vandy bet last week when they dipped below -7.

MeatWad, What are your top plays for today ?

[wantitall4moi]

You contradict yourself - take your win rate from 50% to 54% ats that's a massive difference.

I always like these arguments, yeah if youre a coin flipper. If a guy knows what lines to avoid then their difference is actually going to be less than 1%. if you simply eliminate the 2.5/3/3.5 lines (where they cross around those numbers) youre at about 1.3% in the NFL where getting the best line matters over getting the worst, in most of the time where it matters you push and do not lose. NBA the line is 4 where you have a demarcation, dont ask me why, but that is the one.

So if a coin flipper never bet a game that was lined in or around 3 and just bet everything else he would then be a 51% capper if he got the best line every time.

Percentages dont mean shit anyway. If a guy isnt betting the same exact amount on every single play then it doesnt matter what his win percentage is, and if a guy is using Kelly or some other make believe system to determine how much he bets due to his 'edge' and he uses point spread comparisons to determine that edge then he is a retard anyway. So if he see a game -6 and he puts his edge at 53% then it moves to -4 what does he do? Makes his edge 60% or does he think the move is 'sharp' and not bet the game?

Its a double edged sword. I dont give a shit what the line is or what anyone else thinks, I bet games I like at the best number I thin I can get. I do more than fine. But the NFL is for suckers anyway, the only way you can make decent money is to be too much on games in the first place.

If a guy makes 200 wagers in the NFL in a season, and to do thathe would have to be betting sides, totals, halves, and probably quarters, and is 54% that means his record is 108-92 (assuming no pushes). If he is betting 1 unit per play he is up 16 units, big frigging whoop. If he is a 100 bucks per unit guy he made less than a hundred bux a week. If he is a nickle player he made about 400 a week. And if he can afford to bet a nickle a unit, 400 a week wouldnt pay for his trouble.

Football is a nice past time sport, throw some money on a game and watch it, it certainly isnt for making any steady income.

[MeatWad]

MeatWad, What are your top plays for today ?

I play soo many mostly for the same amount. Among the ones I have that haven't started: Org St, S Ala, Wym, Mary, Wash U, TCU, Tulsa, Vandy, over in Okl and Ok St games, A force, Nev, Tex St., and I added WVU +10 late when the number went up, thought 7-7.5 was correct.

[MeatWad]

I play soo many mostly for the same amount. Among the ones I have that haven't started: Org St, S Ala, Wym, Mary, Wash U, TCU, Tulsa, Vandy, over in Okl and Ok St games, A force, Nev, Tex St., and I added WVU +10 late when the number went up, thought 7-7.5 was correct.

Not totally sure, but I think the line movement already came into play. I had Org St+5.5, believe it may have been 4-4.5 yesterday and even lower today?

[Romanov]

Some real sqrs in here. Take a look in the handicapper think tank today and find ALL posts by Ganchrow

[HoulihansTX]

BTCL is a myth

[wantitall4moi]

Some real sqrs in here. Take a look in the handicapper think tank today and find ALL posts by Ganchrow

another math fraud, he did so well gambling he took a job at some shit book, and yes I know it is Heritage, probably making 40K a year if he is lucky.

guys like that that think like that are destined to fail at gambling, thin tank is full of them. thats why its called the think tank and not the ACT tank.

I have more data than they ever dreamed about having and I can tell you it doesnt matter more than what I posted. A SMART gambler is going to avoid the 'hot' numbers and therefore it means the line is almost meaningless. pick a frigging Su winner and just start cashing. But that is the problem most guys cant even do that.

Good test this week with so many PK Em games (some have moved but theyre still pk em in reality. If you cant pick Su winners 75% of the time you have no business gambling.

[jahpoker]

[QUOTE=wantitall4moi;16720154]I always like these arguments, yeah if youre a coin flipper. If a guy knows what lines to avoid then their difference is actually going to be less than 1%. if you simply eliminate the 2.5/3/3.5 lines (where they cross around those numbers) youre at about 1.3% in the NFL where getting the best line matters over getting the worst, in most of the time where it matters you push and do not lose. NBA the line is 4 where you have a demarcation, dont ask me why, but that is the one.



Wanti - Have you ever found a profitable NBA TEASER strategy?

[RG3ING]

I have noticed thru my 4 yr beetling career lol that if the line moves right before kickoff or tip an ur on the side it's moving for then ur typically win a lot more then u lose say for example you have the broncos today an you got them at -3 an 30 mins before kickoff it goes up to -4 ur looking good because smart money is coming in on Denver someone knows someone or something the public has no clue about.. I pay attention to this way more then sharp vs square match ups everyone looks for!!

[wantitall4moi]

I have noticed thru my 4 yr beetling career lol that if the line moves right before kickoff or tip an ur on the side it's moving for then ur typically win a lot more then u lose say for example you have the broncos today an you got them at -3 an 30 mins before kickoff it goes up to -4 ur looking good because smart money is coming in on Denver someone knows someone or something the public has no clue about.. I pay attention to this way more then sharp vs square match ups everyone looks for!!

there is a psychological term for that... I dont know the technical name but the laymen term is, you only remember stuff that effects you. Generally its the negative you remember the most, thats why this shit has legs because I can tell you, 80% (100% if you count them messing with vig like they love to do these days) of lines moves, 50% of the time enough to be 'relevant', yet it doesnt matter. Only time it matters is when it does, its that simple, and the only times it REALLY matters is when you got a bad beat because of it. So if it doesnt effect you it doesnt matter, and trust me it doesnt effect you all that much, even if you took the very worst numbers on every game you would maybe see 2 or 3 out of 100 games at most where you got a push or a loss instead of a push or a win. If you stayed away from 'key' point differentials, 3 in NFL, and 4 and 5 in the NBA it would be maybe 1 in 150 games.

This year, in the NFL, has been a slight anomoly, where 3 games so far have had weird finishes and in every game the point spread was effected. So either coaches are looking at spreads or it is just a coincidence.

As for the other question, I dont bet teasers, and in a sport like the NBA where the scoring system is so volatile it is a waste. Free throws can kill anything even teasers. But guys think teasers are free throw insurance, but not when you generally only get 4 points on NBA teasers.