Week 14 Picks

**Mr. Selassie** · 12-11-16, 04:50 AM

Broncos +1.5 -Denver is 4-2 ATS on the road, & 3-1 ATS as an underdog. Tennessee is 2-4 ATS at home, and 1-3 ATS as a favorite. Trevor Siemian is supposed to be back for this game which is huge for Denver's offense. Also, Denver's (8-4 SU) only losses have been to division opponents, with the exception of a loss to the Falcons when Siemian was out.

Colts -6.5 - Houston is 1-5 ATS on the road, with the win coming at a sorry JAX team. They are also 1-5 ATS as an underdog. Indy was beating the Texans 23-6 in Houston with 7 minutes to go in week 6 until the defense collapsed and they lost in OT. I think the Colts defense has gotten better since then, along with their offense.

Mia/Arz Over 43.5 - Arizona is 5-0 over the total on the road this season, and Miami is 5-1 over the total at home. The lowest total in a Cardinals road game this year was 50! The lowest totals in Miami home games are 45 & 47. The other totals were 54, 53, 50, & 55.

Lions -7 (-115) - Detroit is 5-1 ATS at home, while Chicago is 1-5 ATS on the road. Chicago is 0-6 SU on the road, and has lost by more than a touchdown in 4 of them. The other 2? They lost by 6 in each of them. Also, Matt Barkley is starting for the Bears and Alshon Jeffrey is still suspended. I think the Lions get a defensive TD or two in an easy win.

Saints +1.5 - The Saints are 4-0-1 ATS on the road this season, and 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog. They still have a shot at the division title, and I think this is a good bounce back game for them after getting dominated by Detroit last week. The Buccaneers are hot right now, winning 4 in a row, but they are still only 2-4 SU & ATS at home, with one of those wins being against the Bears. The Bucs have done a lot better on the road then at home the past 2 years. And their WR corps is super thin right now. Going with the Saints

Falcons -5.5 (-105) - The Falcons are 5-1 ATS on the road this year, and they are tied for the division lead with TB with 4 games to go. They had a devastating loss last week..I think they go in to LA and crush them. 6 of Atlanta's 7 wins have been by at least a TD, and the Rams are 1-3-1 ATS at home. Gurley has yet to break 100 yards in a game this year, and the rest of the season is dedicated to getting Jared Goff playing experience. He can't hang with Matt Ryan.

Packers +3 (-120) - The Packers are 4-2 SU at home this year, while the Seahawks have only won 2 out of 6 road games. Winning in Foxboro was impressive, but the win at the Jets not so much. This is a different team on the road, and with Earl Thomas out for the year, I'm going with the Packers. They've looked a lot better the past 2 weeks and are fighting for their playoff lives, so I expect them to want it more.

Gb/Sea Under 45 - 4 out of 6 Seattle road games have gone under the total, and 4 out of 6 Green Bay home games have gone under the total. It's supposed to snow tomorrow in Lambeau with wind playing a factor as well. It could make for an ugly, low scoring battle. I think there will be a lot of running, using up a lot of clock.

Patriots -6.5 - New England is 9-3 ATS, including 4-2 ATS at home. Since Brady's been back, the Pats are 7-1 SU, with 6 of those wins by at least a touchdown. The Ravens are just 1-4 ATS on the road this year. Also, the Ravens started the whole deflategate scandal after losing to the Patriots in the 2014 playoffs!!! This is the first meeting between these two teams since then. I don't care who is injured on the patriots. I don't care that the Ravens usually put up a good fight. Tom Brady is gonna tear that ass up!!!