[broadway6]

What's your draft slot?

[Chi_archie]

Good luck Nasher!

[stevenash]

What's your draft slot?

4

McCutchen fell to me.


1. Trout
2. Stanton
3. Goldschmidt (guy wanted him, can't fault him, only 1B out there with real speed)

Now I have a giant dillema.
Never in a million years did I think Kershaw would be there, dangling on stick.
The wife is like (she knows more baseball that half the dudes, die hard Sox fan she is) "Kershaw"
I give her the old "you know, in all the years of me doing this, I have a policy..."
She finishes the statement ..."you never draft a pitcher in the first round"
I say "this might be a first"

I'm on the clock with 60 seconds, and broke the record for flip-flopping in a 60 second time span.

Kershaw fllls up 4 categories, McCluch, five categories.
He's the NL Mike Trout.

Went with the hitter, and hoping Kershaw goes 10 and 16.

Follow with Desmond in round 2, Beltre in round 3, Freeman in round 4

Hamels in round 5
Heyward in round 6
Holliday in round 7 (I got Wong later to play 2B so I guess I am a Cardinal fan this year)
G. Cole in 8 (wanted Holliday in 7, I knew Cole might not be there)
Guy in front of me had 3 choices, Cole, Kimbrel, or Ryu, he chooses Kimbrel, I'm like "Thank Christ"

So I get Cole in the 8th, Iwaguma in 9th, first reliever is Cishek in the 10th.

I got all three of my targets, Desmonnd, Cole, and Cishek (who's going to save 40 this season)

Get a load of this, in round 24 Andrew Miller is still hanging around, Betenance is not a lock to close for NYY, his velocity is off 3MPH, and he looks shitty all spring, Yanks did not spend a gazillion dollars on Miller for nothing, I could have myself a top 5 closer for next to nothing.
And guess who is still on the board in round 25?
Wade Davis, if Holland goes down, I have a top 5 closer for next to nothing.

I stashed Homer Bailey in like round 18, he'll miss 3 turns in April, I can wait.
I'm taking a chance on Odorizzi, got him cheap, there are indications that this could be the year for him, that's how you win these things, like Kluber last year.

I am gambling on Liriano too as my 6 starter.

I'm sitting on Tanner Roark too.
He's reduced to spot start/long relief with the signing of Max and others, but he's a good stash, if one of the Nats ptichers goes down, I have a very dependable starter, if he gets traded, he becomes a new teams number 2 or 3.

I have no problem with this.

Year W L W-L% ERA G GS IP H BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 BB9 SO9 2013 7 1 0.875 1.51 14 5 53.2 38 11 40 252 2.41 0.913 6.4 1.8 6.7 2014 15 10 0.6 2.85 31 31 198.2 178 39 138 131 3.47 1.092 8.1 1.8 6.3

[broadway6]

Sounds like your draft was more successful than mine. You got better value for players like Cole.


Go Cards!!!

[shaunovery]

Gonna enter my cdm sports roto league entry tomorrow how important is it to have a cheap bench (easier to rotate players in salary wise )

[stevenash]

Adam Eaton is getting a ton of love. Consider him in the late teens or early 20's

[Otters27]

Getting Andrew as the 4th pick not bad. How many Rockies players did you get?

[stevenash]

Getting Andrew as the 4th pick not bad. How many Rockies players did you get?

None truth be told.
I would have liked to have grabbed, Tulo, Dickerson, Car-Go, Arendo...
But you can't always get what you want.

[stevenash]

Devon Travis (2B-TOR): The Blue Jays officially named Devon Travis as their starting 2B on Tuesday. And the crowd goes wild! While Travis has only played 100 games at the AA level, he has consistently showed an advanced approach at the plate, impressively discerning location and spin. While he will likely bat towards the bottom of the order to begin the season, with an 8% BB rate and 13% K-rate to go with above average speed and basestealing skills, Travis may eventually even work his way up the lineup. Keep an eye on his defense, but as long as he plays adequately in the field, he'll have the gig and produce solid late-round MI value in the majority of leagues.

Dalton Pompey (OF-TOR): The Blue Jays officially named Dalton Pompey as their starting CF on Tuesday. And the crowd goes wild again, this time with Molsons in hand! Pompey, after struggling initially against MLB pitching, made some solid adjustments in the final two weeks of 2015 and has carried those into Spring Training. Pompey posted a 52:84 BB:K ratio in 113 MILB games last year with 43 SBs in 50 attempts. While he'll likely hit some bumps in the road, his discerning eye, speed, and defense will likely buy him plenty of leash. Don't hesitate to roll with him as your #4 outfielder in standard mixed leagues.

Francisco Cervelli (C-PIT): The forgotten man at the catcher position in fantasy this spring appears to be the Italian Stallion, Francisco Cervelli, who is going off the board at #366 overall (29th among catchers!). Cervelli hit 2 more homers yesterday, including 1 off of David Price, to bring his spring total to 4. While his .301 AVG from 2014 was inflated due to a .408 BABIP, Cervelli posted an elite 26% LD rate and a miniscule 22% chase rate. He has posted plenty of solid numbers in his career both at the MILB and MLB levels. While he doesn't bring real power to the table, Cervelli can be asset in the AVG department, and with full time AB's in Pittsburgh, you shouldn't forget about him as a solid #2 catcher.

Jeff Locke (P-PIT): The Pirates named Jeff Locke as their fifth starter, relegating Vance Worley to the bullpen in the process. Locke, who is scheduled to start against the Brewers on April 10th (according to MLB.com), posted a 3.91 ERA/3.90 xFIP in 21 starts last season. While he was able to reign in the walks, his 16% K-rate remained well-below league average, making him solely relevant in NL-only leagues. He struggled against righties last season (.342 wOBA against), which is something to keep in mind either in DFS or leagues with daily transactions. While Locke provides the Pirates with another lefty alongside Francisco Liriano, he doesn't have a particularly long leash.

Chase Anderson (SP-ARI): The Diamondbacks officially named Chase Anderson to the starting rotation, pushing Daniel Hudson (and perhaps Archie Bradley) to the bullpen to start the season. Anderson makes for an intriguing upside play in deeper mixed leagues, as he brings a slightly-above average 21% K-rate with a swinging-strike rate approaching 10%, also a slightly-above average mark. His flyball tendencies are reasons for circumspection, but his HR/FB rate was at an inflated 13% last season. He boasts a well-rounded arsenal and brings K-potential, so don't forget about him in your draft's endgame or if you need a streaming option.

Chris Owings (SS-ARI): So who is it going to be at SS: Chris Owings or the defensive wizard Nick Ahmed? While many in the industry project Ahmed earning the nod, manager Chip Hale hasn't fully committed. Chris Owings, meanwhile, went 1 for 4 with 1 run, 1 RBI, and 1 SB while playing 2B on Tuesday. With trade rumors swirling around Aaron Hill, and the Diamondbacks professed love of the dynamic game of Owings, don't be surprised to see a move that opens up full-time AB's for the youngster. While he struggled with health in 2014, Owings did post 6 homers and 8 steals in 332 AB's to go with a 24% LD rate. If you miss out on MI in the middle rounds, I'd have no qualms about waiting for Owings in the latter rounds.

Jackie Bradley (OF-BOS): The man with the golden glove continues to impress with the stick, as Bradley went 1 for 3 with 2 runs, 2 walks, and 1 K. He now carries a .381/.469/.452 line with an impressive 5:6 BB:K ratio through 42 AB's. While Bradley figures to open the season as outfield depth, seeing mostly late game action because of his defensive prowess, don't forget about him in deeper leagues or keeper leagues, as a trade appears imminent. He has the work ethic and acumen to figure out his woes on offense and just needs the AB's.

[Robber]

Bradley can be a player he'll learn to hit

[stevenash]

^
Yeah, I like Bradley too.
Like Betts better.

[stevenash]

Jace Peterson today
Braves 2B - can hit for average and speed.
2200 at Fan Duel, rock bottom, and frees up cap room for a starter.

[stevenash]

John Mayberry Jr hitting 3rd in the Mets order.
Dirt cheap at 2400 at Fan Duel.

[stevenash]

John Mayberry Jr hitting 3rd in the Mets order.
Dirt cheap at 2400 at Fan Duel.

Just saying.

[stevenash]

Unreal, my darlings from last year pick up right where they left off.
Going to ride them today. for a few reasons.

1) I love that team. (not a reason to bet them)

2) I was a little weary of the Rios and Morales pickups, but all they have been doing the first week is do what they get paid to do. Hit. Both of them. One is 8 for 20, the other is 6 for 20 .300/.400 Both have homered.

3) Lo-Cain is proving me right so far, I said he's going to have a break out season this year, off to a great start,
He's also 8 for 20, and showing the power I knew he had.

4) The whole team is .300 or better (7 of the regulars) granted it's only the first week, but still.
Alex Gordn is off to as slow start, not worried about him, he's a proven hitter, and Infante is off to a slow start, don't care, he gets paid to pick up ground balls at 2B, and he's doing that just fine.

5) Sal Perez is proving he is the best catche in the AL. Has homered twice. Plus his amazing defense.

6) The lights out bullpen, the best bullpen this generation might ever see, are doing it again.
HDD combination, Herrera, Davis, Holland in 10 innings have given up 3 hits, no earned runs, or any runs, struck out 11 in 10 innings, walked just one batter, saved four out of five wins.

7) Ace Ventura gets the ball today, throws 100, the only concern is the heater has limited movement, but no opposing batter has exploited that yet, so I'll keep riding him until the league catches up to him.
The league eventually will I think, but they haven't yet.

8) If KC gets has the lead after six in Anaheim today, who ya going to call? Well you could call the Ghostbusters, but any KC lead after six innings is pretty much automatic with the HDH boys.

9) KC hits CJ Wilson.

Now, I am going to explain my point of view for the 1000th time.
I place some weight on BvP (batter versus pitcher) or simply put what a particular batter has done against a particular pitcher in the past. I do not believe it is the be all end all of all statistics, it's not, it's not even my go to stat when handicapping a game. What it is (to me) is an indiication that a particular batter is comfortable against a certain pitcher. I believe in the adage history tends to repeat itself, if a batter is 20 for 50 lifetiime against a certain pitcher, the trend is he may go 2 for 5 against him again the next time he sees him. He could go 0 for 4, but the trend is 2 for 5.
Now many smart bettors have argued with me BvP is meaningless, and they have backed up their argument with sound reasoning, I get that, to me, BvP is not meaningless, and I will continue to use it in my handicapping.
I will only use BvP in my handicapping if the sample size is large enough. If a hitter is 4 for 5 lifetime, that is not large enough. But I want to make clear don't bet a game just on BvP alone, I use that stat as and indicator only.

OK, for instance, Alex Rios is 8 for 21 lifetime against CJ Wilson. .381, walked twice .480 OBA
He has homered twice off of Rios, driven in 5.
Would you say Rios is comfortable facing Wilson (I would considering he's only K'd once)
And Rios has two stolen bases off of Wilson, so based on the information given, Rios gets on base almost half the time he faces Wison (.480 OBA) hits Wilson, one K in 24 PA's, and when he gets on, as the 2 swipes suggest, reads CJ like a picture book.

Another example, the Royals new DH Kendry Morales, is 10 for 28 lifetime with a homer off of Wilson.
He's only struck out once also like Rios.

Now, I am not going to say the aforementioned batters *own* Wilson, but I can accuratelly say, those two have had proven success against him in the past.
That is my point when I bring up BvP in my handicapping, I believe BvP, with a large enough sample size should be a factor when breaking down a game, but I believe there are at least 6 other more important factors that should be used before going to BvP.

Lorenzo Cain is 4 for 7 off of Wilson, I won't use that as an idicator, but you like to see that anyway when breaking down a daily game. Cain could easily take a 0 for 4 collar.

OK, I can write this game up until the cows come home, but I think I already have.

Ventura matches up well against CJ Wilson.
KC is 5 and 0, and I am not going to fade a 5 and 0 team, not that team with that lights out bullpen.
Angels are 2 and 3, have looked lackluster so far, winless at home, and have distractions, the Hamilton thing being one of them.

I'm expecting a team, hitting out of their shoes right now (KC) with a bullpen blessed by God Almighty himself, to notch their 6th stright to open the year.

If I'm wrong, so be it, the creek won't rise, the sun won't fry, and it will rise again in the east Monday morning.
That is a lock, the KC Royals are not a lock, but a good baseball wager on paper going in.

Best of luck.

KC +104

(if you are wondering, I am 8 and 6 for the first week, but show a +5.15 * profit, all wagers are 2*, but two winner of those 8 were for nice + money, I don't bet anything bigger than -125)

Happy Sunday fellas.

[Otters27]

I like Ace Ventura here. guy looked pretty sharp in his opening day start

[broadway6]

my pitching is carrying me.. my hitting (even with trout) is letting me down. worst pick ever was Big Papi (7th or 8th round)...

[broadway6]

1 month down... i'm in first place

[Wrigley]

1 month down... i'm in first place

good start is always nice keep it up