Betting against public opinion - revisited

[QuantumLeap]

I thought I would create another thread with this topic since we had such good input on the topic in last week's thread that you can read here:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-football-betting/3329052-betting-against-public-opinion.html

I'll repeat the first part of my post from that thread so you can know what is going on.

"I've been betting against public opinion lately, especially when there's a line move against the favorite (I use BetOnline for opening lines) and when the recent performance of the favorite has been good while the recent performance of the underdog has been bad. I don't believe in using consensus sites because I don't know how accurate they are."

[QuantumLeap]

Our first candidate is coming up on Tuesday. I'm reluctant to bet these crap conferences because of the lack of consistency so I'll just throw this out there and may bet it later, we'll see.

Looking to possibly take Ball State-

Line movement:
16 to 18 1/2

Recent performance:
WMU 45-31, 41-0
Ball State 25-35

Record:
WMU (ranked #17) 8-0
Ball State 4-4

[QuantumLeap]

A second possible candidate is on Thursday. Keep in mind these lines are very early so they can change a lot by game time. We are looking for a consistent line change against the favorite.

Looking to possibly take UCLA-

Line movement:
10 to 12

Recent performance:
Colorado 10-5, 40-16
UCLA 45-52

Record:
Colorado (ranked #21) 6-2
UCLA 3-5

Special note: Colorado is 8-0 ATS

[BigdaddyQH]

The amateur gambler should concentrate more on the merits of each team playing in the game instead of public opinion. First, it is nearly impossible to get legitimate public opinion data. You get what the books and the wise guys want you to see. Second, people who depend on public opinion wagering often get suckered into bait and switch possibilities, and other wagering tricks that they are not even aware exist.

[QuantumLeap]

The amateur gambler should concentrate more on the merits of each team playing in the game instead of public opinion. First, it is nearly impossible to get legitimate public opinion data. You get what the books and the wise guys want you to see. Second, people who depend on public opinion wagering often get suckered into bait and switch possibilities, and other wagering tricks that they are not even aware exist.

You make excellent points. In fact, I've also thought "what if the books are playing games with the lines"? The reason I think that line movement is a good indicator is because it's a good way for the books to keep getting public money while improving their position with the line going against the public favorite. As we have seen, line movement is not always the perfect indicator. However, I've seen in the cases I mention in my previous thread where it can be helpful.

As far as using the merits of the teams playing the game, I have seen where those merits can be misleading, especially in situational cases. Believe me, I've looked at this like most of us have but have been unsuccessful when getting suckered into a bad situation for a team that I was totally unaware of.

I prefer to watch these situations and use the other indicators I mention to filter out the invalid ones.

[QuantumLeap]

I'm noticing the Bears/Vikings game tonight. I had been putting emphasis on recent games but that doesn't even need to be an indicator. The Vikings lost last week so this game was not based upon that. However, it's a matter of public perception. The Vikings were 5-1 while Chicago was 1-5. That's enough for public opinion to be high on the Vikings and for the 5-point spread for the Vikings to be too good to be true.

Hopefully we can identify college games this week that are similar.

[shopbar picks]

Hopefully you took the bears. Vegas doesn't make money by letting the public win.

[shopbar picks]

I could not bet on cutler to win or cover. But that's was the bet according to the post on sbr so I passed

[QuantumLeap]

Hopefully you took the bears. Vegas doesn't make money by letting the public win.

To be honest I didn't take the Bears but during the game I felt the Vikings were the public pick based upon records alone. That's why I use records sometimes as an indicator.

[QuantumLeap]

I just wanted to revisit the 3 picks that lost last week:

• Purdue: JTrain mentioned that Purdue started out at +14 and then went to +10 and back to +14. I think we should be looking for one-way line movement.
• Kansas: I have been using BetOnline for the starting line because they are one of the earliest. They started at +28 1/2 and went to +30 1/2 all at once. However, the mainstream books opened at +40 1/2 and went the wrong way to +39 1/2. This tells me that I should follow line movement by the mainstream books only and maybe the big early line movement is sharp money.
• Rice: still trying to figure this one out. The line movement was classic.

[QuantumLeap]

I also want to point out that while line movement is a good indicator, it isn't necessary for making a pick. We saw the Vikings last night should have been big favorites based upon the records alone. We had a special instance there with Cutler coming back so that may have changed things up a bit.

With that being said, I'm making the following pick:
Ball State +18

Normally I like to stay away from these shit conferences. However, Western Michigan is ranked 23rd and this is in prime time so there will be a higher amount of money bet and a good opportunity for the books to make out by making the line so that people will take the favorite at a higher number.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

gl QL

[shopbar picks]

I'm with you. I took both dogs tonight..bol to us

[QuantumLeap]

gl QL

Thx Jake.

[QuantumLeap]

I'm with you. I took both dogs tonight..bol to us

Pick 6 for WMU but the Ball State RB Gilbert looks pretty good, almost unstoppable at times.

[QuantumLeap]

No response from WMU to these Ball State RBs. Let's hope they can run over the WMU defenders all night.

[shopbar picks]

Well there you have it. A crap team ball st is just a bad team ie Kansas. But bowling Green really should have covered. But we get to gamble again on Wednesday night.

[QuantumLeap]

Well there you have it. A crap team ball st is just a bad team ie Kansas. But bowling Green really should have covered. But we get to gamble again on Wednesday night.

I'm going to pass on the Wednesday night game. I don't feel it fits the criteria.

[gojetsgomoxies]

kansas-oklahoma moved 12 points? i would think that has to be injury status? i thought i saw mixon suspended this week. obv. the kansas-okla line was last week

[QuantumLeap]

I'm watching this Toledo/Akron game in between innings of the WS. The spread was -10 for Toledo and they were ahead by 10 at half. The 2nd half line was -3 for Toledo. If I would have known the Toledo QB was leading the nation in TD throws I might have put some money on Toledo 2nd half. Hindsight is 20/20 I guess.

[QuantumLeap]

I'm pretty sure I'm going to go with UCLA. I'm just waiting for the final line.

I'm also thinking about taking Georgia State (against Arky St) and San Jose State (against Boise ST).

[shopbar picks]

San Jose is a really bad team

[QuantumLeap]

San Jose is a really bad team

Thanks for the input. I followed their game against UNLV last week. I had the over and they fell 1 point short. So perhaps they will get some sort of momentum from that. This game certainly doesn't fit the recent performance theory since SJ St won and Boise St lost.

They seem to do poorly against rushing teams. They lost to SDSU by 39 points. However, they seem to do better against passing teams which Boise St is. Boise St hasn't covered the spread at home this year (it's partly why I took BYU against them) and 29 points is a lot for the cover.

[QuantumLeap]

There was a lot of late movement on Buffalo from +20 to +17 1/2. It will be interesting to see how this game turns out.

Too much back-and-forth in the games coming up to give me a good read as to this system. Same thing with the late game.

No pick tonight.

[QuantumLeap]

There was a lot of late movement on Buffalo from +20 to +17 1/2. It will be interesting to see how this game turns out.

Too much back-and-forth in the games coming up to give me a good read as to this system. Same thing with the late game.

No pick tonight.

I think I may have been faked out by the line movement in Okla/Iowa St. While the line did reverse itself a little it eventually came back to its furthest point. It went from 19 1/2 to 21 back to 20 and then up to 21 again. A similar line change happened in the Texas game last week.

I should have gone with Iowa St. I see that they are down 14-3 in the 1st. We'll see if they cover the 21. I put some money down on +27 1/2 live.

[QuantumLeap]

A second possible candidate is on Thursday. Keep in mind these lines are very early so they can change a lot by game time. We are looking for a consistent line change against the favorite.

Looking to possibly take UCLA-

Line movement:
10 to 12

Recent performance:
Colorado 10-5, 40-16
UCLA 45-52

Record:
Colorado (ranked #21) 6-2
UCLA 3-5

Special note: Colorado is 8-0 ATS

Going with:
UCLA +14

Just for bookkeeping purposes, this line went from 10 to 13 to 11 1/2 to 14.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Going with:
UCLA +14

Just for bookkeeping purposes, this line went from 10 to 13 to 11 1/2 to 14.

strange line even with Rosen out for the season...UCLA gets much better recruits

I have not looked but it's probably been quite awhile since Colorado beat UCLA

[QuantumLeap]

strange line even with Rosen out for the season...UCLA gets much better recruits

I have not looked but it's probably been quite awhile since Colorado beat UCLA

The backup did all right against WSU and again against Utah except for the 4 INTs. I'm hoping he can settle down tonight. If he can they can not only cover this spread but can win the game as well.

[QuantumLeap]

Going with:
UCLA +14

Just for bookkeeping purposes, this line went from 10 to 13 to 11 1/2 to 14.

Winner.

1-1 so far with the Ball St loser.

Not counting the in-game winner of Iowa St.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

pretty much a no sweat winner on UCLA

those are few and far between

[QuantumLeap]

pretty much a no sweat winner on UCLA

those are few and far between

Iowa State too. Starting to see a pattern?

These are big, big public favorites going down to weak teams (ATS that is). I sincerely believe this is the reason the large percentage of people fail at gambling. They take what they believe to be the sure thing. If it looks too good to be true, it not only usually is, but it's a prime spot to take the underdog.

[QuantumLeap]

Central Michigan/Miami, OH line moved from 4 to PK. I looked at the injury report and it appears that CMU RB Devon Spaulding is expected to miss the game tonight. This from donbest.com:

11/04/16

RB

Devon Spalding

Shoulder

is downgraded to expected to miss Friday vs. Miami Ohio

Thus the line movement is a result of an injury rather than the books trying to get more public money so I'm not betting the spread on this one. I have noticed that the total hasn't changed. I was looking at taking the under 47. I'm wondering now that Spaulding out will CMU go more to a passing game and thus score more points than they usually would? What the hell, I'm going under 47 but not counting it in my "fade the public" record since it doesn't fit that trend.

[QuantumLeap]

Definitely looking to take San Jose St tonight. Classic movement. People will think Boise St will blow them out to get back in the rankings after their loss last week so we're seeing the public continue to push this line up.

Line movement:
28 to 30 1/2

Record:
Boise 7-1
SJSU 3-6 (0-4 on the road)

Will post official closer to game time if the line doesn't reverse too much.

[QuantumLeap]

Going with:

CMU +1

I don't think the RB being out for CMU will make a difference of 5 points. CMU went from -4 to now +1. CMU is more of a passing team any way.

Recent:
Miami (OH): 28-15, 40-26, 18-14
CMU: lost 4 out of their last 6 and one of the 2 wins was in OT

Going mostly on line movement and recent history.

This will be my last pick with an explanation. From now I will only post picks.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Definitely looking to take San Jose St tonight. Classic movement. People will think Boise St will blow them out to get back in the rankings after their loss last week so we're seeing the public continue to push this line up.

Line movement:
28 to 30 1/2

Record:
Boise 7-1
SJSU 3-6 (0-4 on the road)

Will post official closer to game time if the line doesn't reverse too much.

Boise has been living off of their reputation the past couple of years. They are still good but not nearly as good as when Peterson was the coach.