[buddha]

I hadn't expected such a bad start for The Giants, despite the fact that its a year with an uneven number...which seems to un-nerve them lol. I'm stunned they did not right the ship vs. DBacks.

Findings like regarding De la Rosa and his opponents are really important because it is to look below the surface of a record that appears great but upon further investigation....there may be cause for suspicion. I expect many lost with bets on Rockies because of De la R's Home Starting record.

If Giants can win this series vs. Dodgers I expect to be as stunned as I was at them losing 3 out of 4 at Home to DBacks.

And now, cause of you lol, I look forward to the matchup when Giants go to Rockies and hopefully face De la Rosa. I suppose I just hope it's not Lincecum facing De la R....if its MadBum on the mound Giants won't be no dog though.

Thanks for all you do and the generous sharing of your insight.

[RavensFan2k3]

Good morning everyone

Since I'm posting early this morning, I will repost these games around 6pm ET for any late arrivals to the thread.

04.20.15 ALI DOGS

None


HAYDUKES

7pm ET
901 CUBS +107 .50/.53

7:20pm ET
903 CIN +105 .50/.52

8:40pm ET
905 SD +120 .50/.60


GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

Killed it again

[Farough]

Way to go. Been checking this thread since the season started and you guys are killing it

[posey]

I hadn't expected such a bad start for The Giants, despite the fact that its a year with an uneven number...which seems to un-nerve them lol. I'm stunned they did not right the ship vs. DBacks.

Findings like regarding De la Rosa and his opponents are really important because it is to look below the surface of a record that appears great but upon further investigation....there may be cause for suspicion. I expect many lost with bets on Rockies because of De la R's Home Starting record.

If Giants can win this series vs. Dodgers I expect to be as stunned as I was at them losing 3 out of 4 at Home to DBacks.

And now, cause of you lol, I look forward to the matchup when Giants go to Rockies and hopefully face De la Rosa. I suppose I just hope it's not Lincecum facing De la R....if its MadBum on the mound Giants won't be no dog though.

Thanks for all you do and the generous sharing of your insight.

You're very welcome. As Mitch says: Sharing is caring.
Gonna look into my DB now.

[mitch51]

Good morning the Dogs are barking...


04.21.15 ALI DOGS aka The Dog Machine©

8:10pm ET
971 MIN +140 1.00/1.40

9:40pm ET
979 TX +130 1.00/1.30



HAYDUKES aka The Dog Catcher©

10pm ET
975 OAK +102 .50/.51


GLTA and have a super day!


Ali & Hayduke

[Trusty *A*]

You're very welcome. As Mitch says: Sharing is caring.
Gonna look into my DB now.

Thought I would come in and say thanks also for that in depth analysis Posey. That kind of work doesn't go unnoticed by your fellow poster and I thought you need to know it was appreciated.

Anymore in the future will also be appreciated.

[mitch51]

Thought I would come in and say thanks also for that in depth analysis Posey. That kind of work doesn't go unnoticed by your fellow poster and I thought you need to know it was appreciated.

Anymore in the future will also be appreciated.

Thanks everyone for your analysis of these games. It helps everyone to cash more tickets. And remember, "Sharing is Caring", let's get em today guys.

[posey]

Don't have any 'real dogs' besides the Padres again today. Matzek has problems with throwing strikes and has been lucky more than once this season. Only clean game which he pitched was against the Giants. IMO Morrow (healthy) is the better pitcher, the Padres lineup is hotter, their bullpen is better, so why are the Rocks favored? Don't know really. Padres are the best team vs LHP thusfar.

Road Dogs like the Padres (between +100 and +120) playing a game which is not the first game of the series in the month of April (after the 5th game) with the Dog having a WP of bigger than .600 and the home team having lost at least 3 straight are 8-2 in this situation since 2011 (very small sample). And the Rockies are 15-15 since 2010 having lost at least 2 straight, the game being not the first game of a series, being home fav and the starter is not Jorge De la Rosa. You get a ROI of +13.8% when betting on the dog in this kind of situation. Or better said: you would have gotten. Next to that, the Rockies are 7-11 (+40.2 ROI on the Dog) since 2011 as home favs, the game not being the first game of a series, the previous game lost with at least 4 runs difference and the starter being not Jorge De la Rosa. Additionally, the Rockies are 4-10 (+52.0 ROI on the Dog) at home in a game which is not the first game of a series when they were not able to score more than 3 runs in all of their 4 previous games and De la Rosa is not the starter.

I will also take Dodgers -0.5 F5 (the odds are plus). Dodgers offense too good at F5. Currently highest RunAvg over the first 5 Innings, Giants being nearly the worst. Anderson should be solid against a weak Giants lineup vs LHP.

[jrose2106]

Just wanted to say much love for this thread/system, i plan on jumping on board starting asap. Also, I found this thread somehow by searching for the Umpire Under Streaker Thread...happy I found this , but was wondering if anyone knows if that thread is planning to be updated with new picks. If my memory is correct, it was pretty solid as well. Thx for the plays and invaluable insight (i.e. posey's de la rosa breakdown) in advance here tho !!

[mitch51]

Just wanted to say much love for this thread/system, i plan on jumping on board starting asap. Also, I found this thread somehow by searching for the Umpire Under Streaker Thread...happy I found this , but was wondering if anyone knows if that thread is planning to be updated with new picks. If my memory is correct, it was pretty solid as well. Thx for the plays and invaluable insight (i.e. posey's de la rosa breakdown) in advance here tho !!

from post #38 Under Umpire Streakers/Umpires Streaking

The Umpires Streaking, we 90% took on just the umpires stats. When you have two gas cans pitching in Houston, well you probably are not going to try to sneak an under then. Everything I have read and heard, capping umpires doesn't work but we were 68% with these deep into the season. This year we'll be capping umpires to some extent, but we also have some fancy-ass expensive analytics to help all of us out this year. It's gonna be a killer year. We'll probably have more dogs than totals but their will be plenty of both. But we'll use a combination of umpires, karma, analytic computer crap, weather, pitching, etc. We filtered out an awful lot of totals, you can't take them all even if the umpire looks good. It's a war. We don't leave anything on the table. If it's a bet it's a bet and we throw down a unit. They will be in this thread not the old one.


Hope this helps with your question.

[bossman71]

great thread... curious why hayduke bets .5U as to ali 1u bets? Wouldnt it be easiest to just do 1U flat betting for all? Do you happen to know what haydukes record would be if he just flat bet 1U like ali?Sorry for all the questions, just wondering. Thanks and GL.

[Looking4Winners]

Don't have any 'real dogs' besides the Padres again today. Matzek has problems with throwing strikes and has been lucky more than once this season. Only clean game which he pitched was against the Giants. IMO Morrow (healthy) is the better pitcher, the Padres lineup is hotter, their bullpen is better, so why are the Rocks favored? Don't know really. Padres are the best team vs LHP thusfar.

Road Dogs like the Padres (between +100 and +120) playing a game which is not the first game of the series in the month of April (after the 5th game) with the Dog having a WP of bigger than .600 and the home team having lost at least 3 straight are 8-2 in this situation since 2011 (very small sample). And the Rockies are 15-15 since 2010 having lost at least 2 straight, the game being not the first game of a series, being home fav and the starter is not Jorge De la Rosa. You get a ROI of +13.8% when betting on the dog in this kind of situation. Or better said: you would have gotten. Next to that, the Rockies are 7-11 (+40.2 ROI on the Dog) since 2011 as home favs, the game not being the first game of a series, the previous game lost with at least 4 runs difference and the starter being not Jorge De la Rosa. Additionally, the Rockies are 4-10 (+52.0 ROI on the Dog) at home in a game which is not the first game of a series when they were not able to score more than 3 runs in all of their 4 previous games and De la Rosa is not the starter.

I will also take Dodgers -0.5 F5 (the odds are plus). Dodgers offense too good at F5. Currently highest RunAvg over the first 5 Innings, Giants being nearly the worst. Anderson should be solid against a weak Giants lineup vs LHP.

What do you think about Dodgers -1.5 for +135?

[hopeslayerdt]

great thread... curious why hayduke bets .5U as to ali 1u bets? Wouldnt it be easiest to just do 1U flat betting for all? Do you happen to know what haydukes record would be if he just flat bet 1U like ali?Sorry for all the questions, just wondering. Thanks and GL.

gonna go out here on a limb and say prolly 2x the amount now lol

[TrojanMan8]

great thread... curious why hayduke bets .5U as to ali 1u bets? Wouldnt it be easiest to just do 1U flat betting for all? Do you happen to know what haydukes record would be if he just flat bet 1U like ali?Sorry for all the questions, just wondering. Thanks and GL.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but Ali has more filters than Hayduke so there is more risk with Hayduke. I believe that's why they are only 0.5U. Also, just double the tally to convert from 0.5U to 1U, so +2.14U -> +4.28U.

[Trusty *A*]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but Ali has more filters than Hayduke so there is more risk with Hayduke. I believe that's why they are only 0.5U. Also, just double the tally to convert from 0.5U to 1U, so +2.14U -> +4.28U.

Yes you are on the right track. Ali's sytem is the main system they use which combines a lot of filters and things which is why it has a higher 1 unit rating. Haydukes is more of a side system which you can bet as well but are not considered as high as chance of winning since the lower unit of .5

[buddha]

Dodgers -0.5 F5 (the odds are plus). Dodgers offense too good at F5. Currently highest RunAvg over the first 5 Innings, Giants being nearly the worst. Anderson should be solid against a weak Giants lineup vs LHP.

There you go, Play based on sound logic, win or lose with this particular play....over time Plays such as this made based upon sound logic will see a +

Nice work ferreting out Dodgers Dog play, I don't expect we'll see Dodgers as Dog in this series...looking forward to tommorow's line in that regard, Bumgarner with 5.29 ERA over 17 innings thus far going into Wednesday's scheduled start against Clayton Kershaw....

I am with you here at +110 and again...Win or Lose here...Timmy on the mound (Lincecum) for SF, reasonable to expect Dodger's bats to get to him + SF facing the Lefty as you cited so to me this is a +EV play, good luck to us.

German mind is good with analyzing stuff, engineering...math, posey...you guys should try building Automobiles, Machines (such as engines or pumps) and Electronic equipment...as a nation you guys might do well with these things. Not you though posey. We need you to focus on baseball 'capping. Our priorities must be in order here....leave you on the really important work.

[mitch51]

gonna go out here on a limb and say prolly 2x the amount now lol

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but Ali has more filters than Hayduke so there is more risk with Hayduke. I believe that's why they are only 0.5U. Also, just double the tally to convert from 0.5U to 1U, so +2.14U -> +4.28U.

Both are correct and hope this answers your question bossman71.

Nice. "Sharing is Caring"

[buddha]

This year we'll be capping umpires to some extent, but we also have some fancy-ass expensive analytics to help all of us out this year. It's gonna be a killer year. We'll probably have more dogs than totals but their will be plenty of both. But we'll use a combination of umpires, karma, analytic computer crap, weather, pitching, etc. They will be in this thread not the old one.

Magnificent!!
Great they'll be in this thread too instead of separate one!!!

[mitch51]

Just repost for games coming up...Let's get 'em!

Good morning the Dogs are barking...


04.21.15 ALI DOGS aka The Dog Machine©

8:10pm ET
971 MIN +140 1.00/1.40

9:40pm ET
979 TX +130 1.00/1.30



HAYDUKES aka The Dog Catcher©

10pm ET
975 OAK +102 .50/.51


GLTA and have a super day!


Ali & Hayduke

[mitch51]

Awesome work everybody!

Dogs are going to be rolling until the end of the season along with the Unders.

[buddha]

curious why hayduke bets .5U as to ali 1u bets?.

Ali is refined, studious, disciplined, the "geek" of the pair while Haydukes is much less restrained, Haydukes is "crazy" lol.

While Ali is at the corner table quietly studying stats, trends, weather, injuries, efficiencies of players Haydukes is standing on a center table trying to incite a riot or in the alley shooting craps with a few jazz musicians.

Thus is Haydukes restricted to less $$ with which to wager...cuz by comparison to the very methodical Ali Haydukes is "fly by the seat of his pants" (if he had pants) friggin nuts.

[mitch51]

Ali is refined, studious, disciplined, the "geek" of the pair while Haydukes is much less restrained, Haydukes is "crazy" lol.

While Ali is at the corner table quietly studying stats, trends, weather, injuries, efficiencies of players Haydukes is standing on a center table trying to incite a riot or in the alley shooting craps with a few jazz musicians.

Thus is Haydukes restricted to less $$ with which to wager...cuz by comparison to the very methodical Ali Haydukes is "fly by the seat of his pants" (if he had pants) friggin nuts.

Very perceptive, I must say. I have never seen Ali break a rule yet with her system. That's why you look at her games and go" holy @$;&, who the hell would ever bet that"? Because if it comes out of The Dog Machine©, it's a bet. Period.

I ain't got no rules. None. It surprises me when I cash a ticket with these dogs, but it sometimes happens. Not enough times for me to be able to bet a whole unit. But I'm trying. I'll get there eventually.

[buddha]

Thats why I specifically congratulated Haydukes on his 3-0 day yesterday as I understand totally what you're saying with " "It surprises me when I cash a ticket with these dogs, but it sometimes happens. Not enough times for me to be able to bet a whole unit. But I'm trying." cuz 75% of my "capping" is just based on lame "grasp of team's momentum", form that pitcher has shown of late....really base stuff that'd embarrass most to admit that hell most wouldn't admit. It's why I respect (appreciate) the discipline of Ali but more favor the recklessness of Haydukes. Prosperous..."wise" man would arguably be better off following Ali exclusively (i.e. being disciplined) but I and many others have to have the more Action Junkie-like Haydukes. Just the way it is, Civil War with ourselves? Fug it we're to old for that now lol.

You've brilliantly worked in the ability for folks to (guilt-freely) use Haydukes Plays by the .5 Units deal and it's important that people adhere to this less large investment by comparison to Ali strategy.

[buddha]

Just wanted to say much love for this thread/system, i plan on jumping on board starting asap. Also, I found this thread somehow by searching for the Umpire Under Streaker Thread...happy I found this , but was wondering if anyone knows if that thread is planning to be updated with new picks. If my memory is correct, it was pretty solid as well. Thx for the plays and invaluable insight (i.e. posey's de la rosa breakdown) in advance here tho !!

Good Strategy to consider is to organize an entirely separate account for plays from this thread, it's easier, faster (sometimes a life saver if racing the clock to get a bet in) and infinitely better for discipline of taking those "holy shyt, who the hell would ever bet that" plays that the brain says: "well I ain't gonna play that crazy one cuz don't wanna hit my balance" type cherry-picking which....don't waste time trying to cherry-pick plays in this thread. Its been tried and longhaul its -EV. Set Up separate account, play all including eventual Umpire Unders and yearlong all will be well.

5Dimes is prolly best to organize separate account plus with separate account come football you could delegate that separate account for a specific thing such as only fading (playing against) plays you see and absolutely love immediately...where it seems too easy like the line is off & bookie is crazy giving away free money. Thats what I do, separate account solely for plays in this thread then come football "LoveFade" or "FadeME" plays which embarrassingly I guess...I cash at about 61%...historically anyways. GL

[mitch51]

04.21.15 ALI DOGS aka The Dog Machine©[/B]

8:10pm ET
971 MIN +140 1.00/1.40

9:40pm ET
979 TX +130 1.00/1.30


HAYDUKES aka The Dog Catcher©

10pm ET
975 OAK +102 .50/.51


GLTA and have a super day!


Ali & Hayduke

Update:

ALI DOGS

1-1 +.30u
19-14 +8.69u 57.58%


HAYDUKES

0-1 -.50u
17-16 +1.64u 51.52%


Good night

Ali & Hayduke

[posey]

SDP won but Anderson was off yesterday and Giants with 4 double plays... Well, that happens. Can't win everything. Got to live with that. Thanks for the kind words above.

[buddha]

Timmy pitched superbly, especially over the first 4. Conversely, Anderson let us down bigtime.

Perhaps the day off amidst SFG's rough start was good for them.

Kershaw vs. MadBum today. 5Dimes showing SFG+127....

Opened lower, somewhere around +115 I reckon cuz I first saw it at +118. Appears early $$$ are fading MadBum!!

SanDiego looks to be a contender....at long last. NICE to get them as a dog for the 2nd day in a row.

Linesmakers may "wise up" quickly to SD 'n hopefully create some decent Dog Value with their opponents. (LADodgers on Deck for SD, in SD. Will be interesting Dog Opportunities with SOME side in that series also interesting to see how the line is set for the 3 games in that series)

Let me know if you develop any strong feelings/input on MadBum as a Dog to Kershaw...in this spot. Your affinity for Giants in mind hopefully we'll get a good handle on this squad before long, to hammer goin' forward. Frieden.

[mitch51]

Good morning everyone


04.22.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
905 CUBS +108 1.00/1.08
917 BAL +105 1.00/1.05

10pm ET
914 SFG +130 1.00/1.30


HAYDUKES

7pm ET
907 ATL +120 .50/.60


GLTA and have a super day


Ali & Hayduke

[RollinDo]

Love LAD today with Kershaw...Mad bum just not as tough at home...Dodgers clearly the better team and after a loss yesterday, think they bounce back and cruise tonight.
Dodgers my top side play...at a nice price for Kershaw.
Going with Texas +1 (-135).

[mitch51]

Not taking it but I like the over in SF-Dodger game. Neither Kershaw or Mad Bum are in top form right now. Lean under in Colorado game too, but it's too early for totals. They'll be coming, though. Just not enough stats yet.

[RollinDo]

Not taking it but I like the over in SF-Dodger game. Neither Kershaw or Mad Bum are in top form right now. Lean under in Colorado game too, but it's too early for totals. They'll be coming, though. Just not enough stats yet.

I hear ya - and yes, I am straying far from the Under in LAD game and also the Nats game...Both with good chance to push or go Over.
I have hit close to 60% Under so far, but betting them lightly.
As you say, not enough stats from this season...rough there are plenty from previous ones....plus umps are not provided to public yet right?

[posey]

DANGER - LONG POST INCOMING - DANGER

It's not a nice price for Kershaw when you consider his first outings of the season IMO and because of some other reasons (see below). Kershaw has 'always' been a slow starter and his career stats of March/April are way worse than those of midseason or the end of the season. Kershaw has allowed 22 hits and 6 walks in 3 starts with 18.1 IP thusfar. His WHIP is 1.53. He's already given up 3 homeruns. Bumgarner has a WHIP of 1.41 right now. Not much better.

Regarding last season. Giants lost 10 of Bumgarner's 19 home starts in 2014, but 6 of them came between mid June and mid August and he had some fairly tough opponents to which he lost over that stretch (Fister, Cueto, Gray, Vargas (Royals being red hot then), Hamels). From mid June to mid August was by far his worst time last year and of course this accumulates to his 'bad' home stats of 2014 when the hardest of his games in this stretch were home games.

Giants went 8-8 from mid June to mid August with Bumgarner starting. 9 of those 18 starts came at home. 6 of the 8 losses were at AT&T as I said. In the 8 wins the Giants averaged 7.1 runs. In the 8 losses they averaged 2.2. Yes, he did have better pitching stats/outings in the wins, but the opponents were mainly worse (especially the starters) and he didn't get any run support in the losses, too.

Of the current Dodgers, 'only' 5 have a better career BAA than .143 against Bumgarner. And those 5 are Turner (.333), Puig (.273), van Slyke (.308), Uribe (.300) and Barney (.294). All other current Dodgers have been batting .143 or worse against him.
Overall Bumgarner's stats vs the current Dodgers:

AB	H	XBH	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
190	38	14	5	12	9	54	.200	.243	.330	.573

The Giants are 11-5 with Bumgarner against the Dodgers. 2-1 when Kershaw was the Dodgers starter.

Of course you can turn it around now and say that the Dodgers are 8-3 with Kershaw at AT&T. But then you will see that Kershaw's opponents were Cain (1x), MadBum (1x), Lincecum (2x) and then only crap with Zito (2x), Gaudin (1x), Petit (1x) and Vogelsong (3x). So I would ask the question if this 8-3 record is really much of a surprise?
Of course you can find multiple other relevant stats which would give reason to back Kershaw.

But in the end this is simply a nobet for me since I am of the opinion that you shouldn't bet a game when you can find good reasons to back either side.
But if there is a play then for me it's certainly not the Dodgers. Simply because you would have to lay the juice on them. Longterm not profitable IMO. Remember: it's not about one bet, it's about the longterm. You can lose a single bet which was good, you can win a single bet which was bad. But in the longterm it comes up to good picks and if you make good picks the blingbling will come.

I would NEVER make autoplays. Not on Kershaw, not on Waino, not on King Felix or whoever you wanna name. Autoplays, that's my experience, will cost you money in the longterm.

When you look at this, maybe you know what I mean. I have taken the 5 best starters from 2010 to 2014 based on their accumulated WAR of fangraphs.com

Season	Pitcher	W	L	P ROI	O ROI
2010	Kershaw	18	14	-2,50%	-3,00%
2011	Kershaw	23	10	26,00%	-35,90%
2012	Kershaw	21	12	3,40%	-11,30%
2013	Kershaw	21	16	-11,40%	12,80%
2014	Kershaw	23	6	20,70%	-45,30%
2010	Felix	17	17	-11,00%	8,10%
2011	Felix	17	16	-2,30%	-2,30%
2012	Felix	16	17	-11,30%	9,30%
2013	Felix	14	17	-20,30%	19,60%
2014	Felix	22	12	5,60%	-14,40%
2010	Verlander	21	12	14,90%	-22,70%
2011	Verlander	27	11	18,70%	-32,80%
2012	Verlander	24	13	4,40%	-13,10%
2013	Verlander	15	22	-36,40%	51,80%
2014	Verlander	19	14	0,00%	-4,40%
2010	Lee	18	15	-10,20%	7,60%
2011	Lee	22	11	5,20%	-14,90%
2012	Lee	12	18	-30,90%	36,90%
2013	Lee	16	15	-5,70%	2,10%
2014	Lee	6	7	-14,10%	9,90%
2010	Price	23	10	16,50%	-29,90%
2011	Price	18	17	-14,10%	12,20%
2012	Price	21	10	16,50%	-27,30%
2013	Price	14	14	-17,40%	21,10%
2014	Price	20	15	-7,20%	5,70%
2010	Hamels	19	16	-9,80%	7,50%
2011	Hamels	19	13	-5,40%	1,90%
2012	Hamels	21	10	18,50%	-29,40%
2013	Hamels	13	20	-30,00%	30,40%
2014	Hamels	15	15	-3,90%	-0,60%

Now tell me how do you know which year is an autoplay or which one isn't?
Would you have considered Kershaw considered an autoplay in 2011 after 2010?
Was Felix an autofade in 2013?
Verlander an autoplay in 2013 when he lost his groove out of nowhere?
Lee being ever an autoplay or never or being an autofade from 2012 to 2014?
Price being an autoplay in 2012 after he was an autofade in 2011?
Hamels being an autoplay in 2012, but maybe not in 2013?
How do you all know that?

It's all dependent on opponents, their lineups and especially their starter.
Example: The games of Hamels have averaged a score of 3.4-2.8 in 2014. In 2013 it was 3.4-3.8. In 2012 the average score was 4.8-3.4. In 2011 it was 3.8-2.9. In 2010 it was 3.6-3.4.

To pick autoplays you would have to know everything in advance. You would have to know the run support, you would have to know the opponents or to say it better, you would have to know how they will be doing. You would have to know how the guys will do at home or on the road or if they will start to slump or start getting hot or stay hot or stay cold or whatever. You would have to know the weather. You would have to know how the bullpen is doing. How is that possible?

IMO it isn't. That's why I don't like autoplays. Autoplays are easy on paper and on your mind because you think of them being autowins. This makes you feel easier but the problem is that they are far from being guarantees.

In the end it comes down to capping every game on it's own.

But what do I know...it's only my opinion. And of course, it's baseball. So the Dodgers can certainly win with Kershaw against Mad Bum, but maybe they won't. And maybe Kershaw is an autoplay in 2015. But maybe he isn't.

[2daBank]

good post man.. i agree totally about the price not being right to back kershaw. no play for me either as i have to see bum regain his form a little after logging the crazy innings he did last year and in the post season.. gun to my head id take the plus with sf but no gun so no bet..

[posey]

To add something to it. Some more words. I have a creative phase right now.

Who has known that Lincecum (2011: 2.54 ERA, 2012: 5.18 ERA) or Verlander (2012: 2.64 ERA, 2013: 3.46 ERA, 2014: 4.54 ERA) (both coming to my mind first*) would start to suck hard out of nowhere after being very good before? Or Masterson (2013: 3.45 ERA, 2014: 5.88 ERA).
Who has known that Keuchel (2013: 5.15 ERA, 2014: 2.93 ERA) or McHugh (2012: 7.59 ERA, 2013: 10.04 ERA, 2014: 2.73 ERA) (both coming to my mind first*) would do so well?

There are multiple pitchers with 'similar' stats or 'sudden' improvements or declines from one year to another. You can't forecast anything over one whole season and that's the problem. A pitcher may have been an autofade because he was bad because of an unknown injury. Then the injury is gone and he makes money. Another pitcher was an autoplay and he gets injured and nobody knows it, he pitches through it but doesn't do well and he becomes an autofade. A pitcher gets tons of run support in season A, but he doesn't get it in season B. And vice versa. A pitcher adds a deadly pitch to his arsenal in the offseason and fools a lot of hitters which have hit him well before. Another pitcher loses some miles on his FB. How do you know that? Sometimes pitchers loses it in May and then regain it in August. Some lose it in the offseason and never regain it. And so on and so on.

Maybe the autoplay on a fictive pitcher works in year 2014, but what if this trend continues in 2015 until May and then he falls off because of different reasons and in the end he ends 2015 with a negative ROI when backing, or a positive ROI when fading him?

To win longterm you have to do research, research and research day in and day out. Do not think that the bookies are so dumb that they don't recognize particular trends or happenings. You may have 'luck' with an autoplay on a pitcher in year X, but this doesn't mean you will have 'luck' again in year X+1. The bookies will adjust the lines sooner or later. They often do it within a season. They often do it within months. For sure they do it from one season to another. And this is one reason why some 'autoplays' become 'autofades'. Some of the other reasons are illustrated in the post from before.

You know, you have to think of betting being something like an investment. The guys who have the best chances in making money with investment are those who spend tons of hours on reading the market, recognizing trends, finding holes and loops. In sports betting it's all the same...

When you have the 'eye' to find holes or loops or trends and the 'ability' to read the market, along with enough time for it, baseball is one of the best markets to make money. If you don't have the 'eye', the 'ability' or the time you will have lots of trouble.

EDIT: Thx 2dabanks and Mitch.

[2daBank]

really hope both pitchers bring their A gm as nothing better than this kind of showdown at at&t while listening to vin scully!!