[skyscrapers]

10+ Runs Home Chase System

This is an MLB chase system that I’ve just devised and feverishly doing backtesting. I’ve tried an abundance of different types of systems and criterias but this system so far turns out with the best profitibility. So far I’m running out of time (before the regular season starts) to do at least 10 years of backtesting but will continue to work at it as quick as I can. Right now I almost have 3 years of backtesting done and it looks very promising so I really want to implement it live this season.

Strategy
- Look for a game that has a game total that is = to or >10 runs with the home team winning.
- After that game occurs we chase the home team for 3 straight home games for a win or a runline cover.

Placing Bets
- When placing bets please remember to select ‘Action’ and NOT ‘Listed Pitchers’
- Favorites play on moneyline
- Dogs play on run-line or occasionally the alternate run-line. Sometimes the dog is so bad we are able to get + odds on the run-line in which we will ‘risk’ the bet instead of normally ‘bet to win’.
- For games with close to even lines I would advise to wait till very close to gametime before placing bets.
- Objective of each 3-game chase is to win 1 unit

Rules & Notes
General:
- Do not chase through the all-star break. There must to be at least 3 home games remaining before the all-star break to begin a chase.
- Same goes for the end of the regular season. There must be at least 3 home games remaining before the end of the regular season to begin a chase.
- Neutral home games sites, international games and in rare cases the home team playing in an opponents ball park are NOT official home games for this system. Do NOT count them and do NOT play them.
- Extra-innings and shortened games are official as long as the score becomes official.
- If the winning game of a chase is with a score that is = to or >10, the next immediate home game will be our ‘A’ bet chase. We don’t have to wait for another game with a score that is = to or >10 to begin a chase.
- Treat doubleheaders as two separate games. All rules apply.

Postponed Games:
- If any postponed game occurs before a scheduled ‘A’ bet, the chase will be cancelled.
- If 1 or more postponed game occurs after an ‘A’ bet, the chase will continue onto the next home game.
- If there is any postponed game during the final 3 qualified home game chases before the all-star break and is not made up before the all-star break, the chase will be cancelled and we take the small loss.
- If there is any postponed game during the final 3 qualified home game chases at the end of the regular season and is not made up at all, the chase will be cancelled and we take the small loss.

Best of luck...

[skyscrapers]

2013 Backtest
- Backtests is based on the closing lines on Pinnacle as listed on SBR.

ARI (13-0)
ATL (15-0)
BAL (11-1) (-17.715u)
BOS (20-1) (-15.9u)
CHC (9-1) (-11.055u)
CWS (5-1) (-11.36u)
CIN (10-0)
CLE (13-2) (-11.55u / -9.605u)
COL (23-1) (-12.09u)
DET (21-1) (-11.695u)
HOU (10-0)
KC (10-1) (-10.43u)
LAA (11-3) (-11.925u / -7.75u / -10.31u)
LAD (9-0)
MIA (5-0)
MIL (7-2) (-7.985u / -8.355u)
MIN (12-0)
NYM (5-1) (-9.7u)
NYY (14-1) (-10.36u)
OAK (16-2) (-10.105u / -10.61u)
PHI (14-1) (-7.93u)
PIT (8-0)
SD (9-0)
SEA (9-0)
SF (8-0)
STL (14-1) (-11.58u)
TB (10-1) (-12.01u)
TEX (15-0)
TOR (14-1) (-11.935u)
WSH (10-2) (-11.83u / -8.45u)

2013 TOTAL: (350-24) 350u won / 262.235u lost = +87.765u PROFIT

[skyscrapers]

2012 Backtest
- Backtests is based on the closing lines on Pinnacle as listed on SBR.

ARI (17-1) (-11.15u)
ATL (12-0)
BAL (13-2) (-8.995u / -8.51u)
BOS (16-3) (-10.175u / -13.215u / -13.955u)
CHC (7-0)
CWS (16-1) (-13.755u)
CIN (13-0)
CLE (10-0)
COL (20-1) (-8.22u)
DET (12-0)
HOU (11-2) (-10.54u / -6.59u)
KC (11-0)
LAA (10-2) (-28.365u / -10.545u)
LAD (11-2) (-8.845u / -13.825u)
MIA (9-1) (-9.515u)
MIL (24-1) (-10.42u)
MIN (14-0)
NYM (5-1) (-17.27u)
NYY (13-1) (-14.47u)
OAK (10-0)
PHI (14-1) (-17.15u)
PIT (6-2) (-10.915u / -10.525u)
SD (15-0)
SEA (2-0)
SF (8-0)
STL (17-2) (-11.495u / -18.94u)
TB (8-1) (-12.005u)
TEX (24-0)
TOR (15-1) (-10.215u)
WSH (15-1) (-8.2u)

2012 TOTAL: (378-26) 378u won / 317.805u lost = +60.195u PROFIT

[TakingVegasMoney]

Strategy
- Look for a game that has a game total that is = to or >10 runs with the home team winning.
- After that game occurs we chase the home team for 3 straight home games for a win or a runline cover.

Best of luck...

Looks pretty interesting dude. Are you going to post weekly/daily plays? Also, when you say home team winning in he strategy that just means they are the favorite, right?

thanks

[skyscrapers]

Looks pretty interesting dude. Are you going to post weekly/daily plays? Also, when you say home team winning in he strategy that just means they are the favorite, right?

thanks

The home team can be a dog as well as a favorite as long as the home team wins and the game total is = to or >10 runs. That will qualify the next home game for that team for the chase.

And yes I will post daily plays.

[skyscrapers]

I'll have the 2011 backtest posted by late tonight or tomorrow morning.

[amarius87]

excellent! will be tagging along !

[TakingVegasMoney]

The home team can be a dog as well as a favorite as long as the home team wins and the game total is = to or >10 runs. That will qualify the next home game for that team for the chase.

And yes I will post daily plays.

got it!!! Thanks man. Looking forward to your plays. Let's say the team we are chasing wins in their first home game. Once the team we are chasing covers, we lay off the next two home games?

[skyscrapers]

Once the home team we are chasing covers, we will start a chase on them again once they have played a home game that has a game total that is = to or >10.

Now if the game we covered on is = to or >10, the next home game will be our 'A' bet.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Just wanna make sure. Team Home wins a 10 run game but then goes on a 9 game road trip, first game back is a play?

[skyscrapers]

Just wanna make sure. Team Home wins a 10 run game but then goes on a 9 game road trip, first game back is a play?

You are absolutely correct!!

[sunzal]

So do we play on the ml or rl...you said either, but big difference.

[sunzal]

Oh sorry...just read in more detail...i like this

[skyscrapers]

So do we play on the ml or rl...you said either, but big difference.

Favs we play on ML and dogs on the RL.

[bigtymer56]

Have you experimented without delaying the chase if the team goes on the road? Or maybe even just ending it when they do?

Seems like the logic behind this system is to catch a team when their bats get hot. Continuing a chase on team that's been away and potentially lost any momentum they had seems to go against that to me.

[jbart28]

Interested to see this system implemented with the backtesting of ONLY the team total of a particular team(s) instead of a game total. If the idea is to catch a team who is crushing the ball then the individual team total data would be more specific to the goal imo.

So if the bombers are in the bronx and the left handed crushers in their lineup are destroying the short porch and the pitching they will be facing is right handed and do not have an out pitch against lefties, then this would be an opportunity to blast.

Also, with good baseball books like 5D, often times I will cap a game and realize the matchup and price actually dictate that betting the team total has way more value than laying wood on a -150 or sweating a +110 RL -1.5.

******Having 5D is a must if you are going to grind out the season*******

[Tillos]

I like this.

[Riceboi]

Is there less losses overall if you only chase the home team if they are a fav?

[skyscrapers]

Is there less losses overall if you only chase the home team if they are a fav?

The problem with this strategy is for example on the qualifying game the home team may be a favorite but the next 3 home games they become a dog for 1 game or 2 games or all 3. There's no way to be 100% certain beforehand that the next 3 home games they are a favorite.

[skyscrapers]

Interested to see this system implemented with the backtesting of ONLY the team total of a particular team(s) instead of a game total. If the idea is to catch a team who is crushing the ball then the individual team total data would be more specific to the goal imo.

So if the bombers are in the bronx and the left handed crushers in their lineup are destroying the short porch and the pitching they will be facing is right handed and do not have an out pitch against lefties, then this would be an opportunity to blast.


Also, with good baseball books like 5D, often times I will cap a game and realize the matchup and price actually dictate that betting the team total has way more value than laying wood on a -150 or sweating a +110 RL -1.5.

******Having 5D is a must if you are going to grind out the season*******

The idea that I chose 10 for the game total is essentially the home team must score at least 6 in order to qualify. So if I change the criteria to start a chase when a home team scores 6 instead, that would additionally qualify a tremendous amount of chases. On average each season this system we will have about 400 chases total already. A few 'C' bets at once will put a lot of strain on our BR. That's why I haven't backtested the team total but I'll definitely look into it further though.

[skyscrapers]

Have you experimented without delaying the chase if the team goes on the road? Or maybe even just ending it when they do?

Seems like the logic behind this system is to catch a team when their bats get hot. Continuing a chase on team that's been away and potentially lost any momentum they had seems to go against that to me.

Yes I have. The profit is not nearly as high if we chased onto the road.

[skyscrapers]

2011 Backtest
- Backtests is based on the closing lines on Pinnacle as listed on SBR.

ARI (17-1) (-8.87u)
ATL (8-0)
BAL (11-1) (-11.075u)
BOS (21-2) (-9.8u / -16.97u)
CHC (9-0)
CWS (8-2) (-12.41u / -6.3u)
CIN (17-3) (-14.325u / -10.27u / -10.135u)
CLE (12-0)
COL (19-1) (-15.495u)
DET (13-0)
FLA (8-1) (-11.29u)
HOU (11-1) (-7.76u)
KC (14-0)
LAA (10-0)
LAD (5-3) (-8.375u / -8.91u / -9.34u)
MIL (15-0)
MIN (7-1) (-8.975u)
NYM (11-2) (-8.74u / -7.97u)
NYY (26-1) (-11.1u)
OAK (11-1) (-7.425)
PHI (18-1) (-12.97u)
PIT (6-0)
SD (4-2) (-10.99u / -8.085u)
SEA (7-1) (-11.185u)
SF (2-0)
STL (9-1) (-9.5u)
TB (10-0)
TEX (26-0)
TOR (18-2) (-11.465u / -14.11u)
WSH (14-0)

2011 TOTAL: (367-27) 367u won / 283.84 lost = +83.16u PROFIT

[skyscrapers]

That brings the total for this system the past 3 seasons (2011-2013):
(1,095-77) +231.12 units

[dlunc3]

how many years do you plan to backtest?

[bigtymer56]

Yes I have. The profit is not nearly as high if we chased onto the road.

Thanks for answering. Good luck with this. Will be watching.

Extremely weary of chases after watching so many crash and burn on here last year.

[snark]

Your followers are kissing your ass about now, and will be cutting off your nuts before long.
You do remember that great capper DarkKnight don't you? You were his greatest follower.
Remember how well he did on that +250 unit promise. Here we go again!! Dumb ass #2. DarkKnight is, and always will be Dumbfuk #1, unless you are pass him on stupidity.

[dlunc3]

Your followers are kissing your ass about now, and will be cutting off your nuts before long.
You do remember that great capper DarkKnight don't you? You were his greatest follower.
Remember how well he did on that +250 unit promise. Here we go again!! Dumb ass #2. DarkKnight is, and always will be Dumbfuk #1, unless you are pass him on stupidity.

darkkight never showed any backtesting and had no rhyme or reason behind his plays correct?

[dkthrilla33]

who u like on the night games?

[snark]

This is the blind leading the blind. Ever heard of don't chase your losses? And you guys just love chases. The surest way to poverty.

[dlunc3]

This is the blind leading the blind. Ever heard of don't chase your losses? And you guys just love chases. The surest way to poverty.

check out on3 thread.. consistent chase run well.. had a rough 2012, but bounced back nice to its normal numbers last year

[funnyman]

Interesting.But what do the red numbers mean? Can you go through 1 series for clarification? Thanks.

[oChRoNiCo]

The red numbers the the units he lost being in the "red" and for the ones that don't have a red just add the number it was like 10-0 would be +10 units since each bet is to win 1 unit.

[skyscrapers]

how many years do you plan to backtest?

I was planning to go back at least 10 years but so far 3 years into backtesting the system shows a high profit. So we'll see if I actually go back that far. It is a time-consuming task.

[dlunc3]

I was planning to go back at least 10 years but so far 3 years into backtesting the system shows a high profit. So we'll see if I actually go back that far. It is a time-consuming task.

Yea def time consuming.. I've been there before. Would definitely be interesting to see though

Bol

[funnyman]

dunlc, do you call 60 units in the green a rough year?