UFC Fight Night: Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill MMA Odds and Picks

With just one prior main event between these two fighters, the pressure is on for them as they look to move up the division’s rankings. Read on for our Walker-Hill picks.

Since Rafael dos Anjos versus Rafael Fiziev was postponed due to visa issues, a pair of light heavyweights in Johnny Walker (18-6-0) and Jamahal Hill (9-1-0) has been promoted to the main event on Saturday. Both fighters got their start with the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series, and have formed reputations since then as two guys who love to stand and throw. With 24 knockouts comprising their 35 professional fights, this main event will likely feature some fireworks.

Here are my Walker-Hill picks and predictions for Saturday’s showdown (odds via BetRivers and Caesars; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Walker vs. Hill Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Feb. 19, 7 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN+Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Walker vs. Hill Odds Analysis

Hill opened this fight as a -240 favorite, with Walker a +198 underdog. In the time since, the market has mostly agreed, with Caesars holding strong at -240 to Hill while BetMGM has moved as high as -300. For those looking to get down on Walker, BetMGM has a +240 posted as of Wednesday afternoon.

In terms of the Over/Under, 1.5 rounds is currently the only number available. The best Over available shaded to -141 on BetRivers and Under +110 at Caesars.

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Johnny Walker Betting Profile

Joining the UFC back in 2018, Walker is the veteran of the pair with eight fights with the promotion, five of which have ended in the first round via KO/TKO. Walker was in line for a title shot just three years ago before losing three of his last four bouts. 

A brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Walker has just two submission wins in his career and none in the UFC. He instead primarily relies heavily on his striking. Heading into this fight, Walker lands 3.42 strikes per minute at a 66.16% accuracy clip.

Jamahal Hill Betting Profile

Hill also comes into this fight with a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree. Yet we have rarely seen him use it with zero of his past professional fights going by way of submission. In his six fights since joining the UFC (including DWCS), Hill has a record of 4-1-1. His one no contest was originally a first-round TKO, which was changed later after he tested positive for marijuana. Including that as a victory, three of his past four wins have ended via KO/TKO including two in the first round. 

Hill is first in this division in striking differential (strikes landed minus strikes taken), with 3.07 per minute and second in the division with 6.65 strikes landed per minute. Though the sample size is relatively small with just five fights in the UFC outside DWCS, he’s also fourth in the division in the shortest average fight time at 5:39.

Walker vs. Hill Picks

Jamahal Hill to Win (-240 via Caesars) ????Over 1.5 rounds (-140 via BetRivers) ???

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Walker vs. Hill Predictions

Hill to Win (-240)

Many people questioned how Hill would respond following his first-round TKO loss to Paul Craig in June of 2021. That was the first loss of his career and a violent one at that. Six months later, a first-round KO of his own over a ranked fighter in Jimmy Crute more than answered that question. 

Hill has some of the top striking rankings in this division, and a sizeable edge over his opponent. His 7.45 significant strikes landed per minute or more than double that of Walker (3.42).

Over 1.5 rounds (-140)

The fate of Walker’s UFC career is very much on the line in this fight. Standing 2” taller and with a wingspan advantage of 3”, I think Walker would be wise to engage in the clinch and try to take this one to the ground to grind out a decision win. 

Though he has just three fights in which he’s taken it to the ground, two of those he came out victorious (Ryan Spann and Henrique da Silva). Plus, he comes into this fight with a .24 takedown average per 15 minutes and a 100% takedown accuracy. While Hill’s takedown defense is sturdy at 60%, he’s rarely been tested. He will be here based on Walker’s desperation to not lose this fight.

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Walker-Hill picks made on 2/16/2022 at 8:51 p.m. ET.