Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili Prediction & Odds: Who Will Win UFC 322 New York?

My Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili prediction for UFC 322 breaks down tonight's co-main event at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Shevchenko enters as the -136 betting favorite, while Zhang steps in as the slight +116 betting underdog in her bid for the flyweight title. The main card is set to begin at 10 p.m. ET (pay-per-view).

We’re backing Zhang to claim championship status in another weight class, using her pace, pressure, and diverse finishing threats to push Shevchenko into uncomfortable exchanges and take over as the fight moves into the later rounds.

✅ Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili predictions: UFC 322 expert picks

See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights.

🥊 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili fight preview

Zhang has a clear statistical and stylistic path to victory, driven by a far more aggressive striking profile. She averages 5.15 significant strikes landed per minute, well ahead of Shevchenko’s 3.14, and both fighters maintain near-identical accuracy (53% vs. 52%). That means Zhang's higher output doesn’t sacrifice precision. Instead, it creates sustained pressure that can win rounds and disrupt Shevchenko’s measured counterstriking rhythm.

Zhang also brings explosive transitions in the clinch and on the scramble. Shevchenko remains one of the most complete fighters in MMA, but her recent performances - including the first submission loss of her career - suggest that defensive openings now appear where they once didn’t.

Momentum leans toward Zhang, too. She enters this fight sharpening her all-action style against elite opposition, while Shevchenko, now deeper into her career, has been in increasingly competitive battles. Over five rounds, Zhang's pace, stance-switching, combination striking, and willingness to mix in takedowns can force Shevchenko backward and break her preferred tempo.

At +116 odds, Zhang’s implied win probability is 46.3%, returning $11.60 on a $10 wager.

Prediction: Zhang Weili to win (+116 via FanDuel)

💰 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili best bet

Check our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this fight.

🔥 Zhang to win inside the distance (+400)

Zhang's finishing ability across multiple phases is the key angle here. Shevchenko’s defensive structure remains elite, but recent cracks - especially in grappling transitions - offer real opportunities. Her blend of power combinations, clinch strength, and opportunistic submissions means every exchange can shift momentum.

Shevchenko typically excels when she dictates range and pace, but Zhang's pressure-heavy approach threatens to steal that comfort. If she forces extended exchanges, mixes levels, and chains attacks through the pocket, she can create high-value moments where Shevchenko is less effective defensively.

Over 25 minutes, that accumulation of pressure and physicality opens the door for a late-fight finish. At +400, Zhang to win inside the distance carries an implied probability of 20%, with a $40 profit on a $10 bet.

📊 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili odds

Odds via bet365; subject to change.

🆚 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili tale of the tape

📺 How to watch Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili: UFC 322

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 15
• Time: 10 p.m. ET (main card)
• Location: Madison Square Garden (New York)
• TV: Pay-per-view