🩸 UFC Fight Night Odds: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Betting Lines & Card Info

The Octagon will be front and center at Arena CDMX in Mexico City on Saturday, Feb. 28 for a UFC Fight Night card. The night is headlined by two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno against rising star Lone'er Kavanaugh, with bantamweights Marlon "Chito" Vera and David Martinez lined as the co-main. 

The prelims are slated for 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 8 p.m. ET, and you can catch every fight live on Paramount+.

---

📊 UFC Fight Night odds - Main Card

📃 Affiliate disclosure

Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)

Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (9-1)

Brandon Moreno notes:

• Assassin Baby: the No. 6 flyweight, and two-time champ, looks to bounce back from a KO defeat in December and hold his rank in the division
• Key Stat: tied with the fourth-most finishes in flyweight history (six)

Lone'er Kavanagh notes:

• Looking to bounce back: the unranked flyweight suffered his first career loss at the hands of Charles Johnson in August, suffering a second-round KO/TKO defeat
• Key Stat: with limited experience at the UFC level, has a better takedown average (1.79) and takedown defense (80%) than Moreno

🩸 Betting outlook

Kavanagh is an exciting prospect but this is probably a step too high, too soon. Instead of looking to Moreno on the moneyline I'll be attacking this by looking at attacking this via method of victory. While Moreno by submission offers an excellent price, I'll instead be taking Moreno by decision.

Marlon Vera (23-11-1) vs. David Martinez (13-1)

Marlon Vera notes:

• The stumbling vet: the No. 9 bantamweight has lost four of his last five fights
• Key Stat: has never been finished in his UFC career, with all 11 of his losses coming via decision

David Martinez notes:

• The local favorite: the No. 10 bantamweight has rattled off nine straight wins (dating back to 2021), including his first two UFC bouts
• Key Stat: has landed 4.85 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, while absorbing only 2.95

🩸 Betting outlook

I'm far from enamored with Martinez's moneyline odds, but I'm also too much of a coward to take Vera as an underdog. Chito is one of the most durable fighters we've ever seen, and it's hard to call that Martinez will knock him out. My move here will be to include Martinez's moneyline as part of some parlays for the card, but I'm not seeing the requisite value to place a standalone bet here. 

Daniel Zellhuber (15-3) vs. King Green (33-17-1)

Daniel Zellhuber notes:

• Rangy nightmare: will look to use his 77-inch reach (and six-inch reach advantage) to snap a two-bout skid
• Key Stat: lands fewer strikes (5.83) with worst accuracy (39%) while absorbing more (5.91 per minute) than Green

King Green notes:

• Formerly Bobby: at 39 years old, Green is one of the oldest fighters on the card, and has had between two-four fights each of the last five years
• Key Stat: averages 1.21 takedowns per 15 minutes, more than Zellhuber's 0.15

🩸 Betting outlook

Zellhuber has been wildly inconsistent, which always gives cause for concern, but Green's age causes some concern. I think Zellhuber is wildly overpriced at -500, so if I get involved here it will be as an outright on Green and hope that he can hang in. This doesn't even get consideration for a full unit, but as a quarter unit play it's a fine play. This is more of a play on the price than the outcome itself, but I can't get behind Zellhuber at this price.

Edgar Chairez (12-6) vs. Felipe Bunes (14-8)

Edgar Chairez notes:

• Kill or be killed: all of Chairez' victories have come via stoppage and two of his losses via stoppage as well (both submission)
• Key Stat: can get it done both ways, with four wins coming via KO/TKO and eight coming via submission

Felipe Bunes notes:

• Get to the grappling: the grappling specialist has mixed results in the UFC, with a loss via KO/TKO in his debut, and a decision defeat last time out, sandwiching a submission victory
• Key Stat: has struggled with takedowns since making the leap to UFC, averaging only 1.13 per 15 and posting an accuracy of just 22%

🩸 Betting outlook

Chairez is far too active and violent for Bunes to hold off for the full 15 minutes. This fight is unlikely to see scorecords, so fight to go the distance? no (-180) is definitely a solid play that I'll be invested in. As for the outcome I'll probably throw Chairez's moneyline directly into a parlay for the evening, and I may invest a quarter unit on him to secure the KO/TKO victory at +200 or longer odds. 

Imanol Rodriguez (6-1) vs. Kevin Borjas (10-4)

Imanol Rodriguez notes:

• Debut on home turf: is making his UFC debut on home turf as he looks to a build on a KO/TKO victory over Roque Conceicao in Dana White's Contenders Series
• Key Stat: just one loss came via split-decision with five of his six wins coming via KO/TKO (four first round, two second round)

Kevin Borjas notes:

• Lacking defense: has struggled since making his leap to the UFC, losing three of his first four bouts
• Key Stat: relied on KO/TKO victories before joining the UFC but has failed to bring that to the big show, landing just 4.19 strikes per minute (44% accuracy) to 5.74 strikes absorbed

🩸 Betting outlook

Rodriguez is a young fighter with only six pro fights under his belt against a more experienced commodity in Borjas, so I have some major concerns with his moneyline. Do I think he'll probably win? yes. Do I see a lot of paths to this ruining parlays? absolutely. 

He's been a beast via knockouts, so a quarter unit (or maybe less) on Rodriguez via KO/TKO will be my play. I also think that if he starts to look like a guy who isn't going to get the job done early then Borjas as a live bet might be wise, as the gas tank - particularly at altitude - is probably a deciding factor.

Santiago Luna (7-0) vs. Angel Pacheco (7-3)

Santiago Luna notes:

• Undefeated record on the line: will put his undefeated record on the line for the second time in the UFC after beating Quang Le by first-round KO/TKO at his debut in September
• Key Stat: all seven of his wins have come via stoppage, with four via submission (rear naked choke) and three via KO/TKO

Angel Pacheco notes:

• Ring rust: hasn't entered the Octagon since March 30, 2024, when he lost via unanimous decision to Caolan Loughran
• Key Stat: has absorbed an insane 11.47 strikes per minute across his one UFC bout

🩸 Betting outlook

Pacheco has been out of action for nearly two years and when he was in action he was eating a lot of shots. Luna finishing this up early with a KO/TKO paying at +145 will be my move on this fight, as well as fitting in the straight moneyline into some parlays. 

---

📊 UFC Fight Night odds - Prelims

🔍️ Find the best odds for every bet

Search the best UFC betting sites for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.

Ryan Gandra (8-1) vs. Jose Daniel Medina (11-6)

Allin Perez (12-2) vs. Macy Chaisson (11-5)

Cristian Quinoez (18-5) vs. Kris Moutinho (14-7)

Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6) vs. Javier Reyes (22-5)

Regina Tarin (7-0) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (6-1-1)

Erik Silva (9-3) vs. Francis Marshall (8-3)

Damian Pinas (8-1) vs. Wes Schultz (8-2)

---

📺 Where to watch UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanaugh

• Date: Saturday, Feb. 28
• Start times: 5 p.m. ET (prelims), 8 p.m. ET (main card)
• Location: Arena CDMX (Mexico City)
• Streaming: Paramount+

---

📃 Affiliate disclosure

Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)