🩸 UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer Odds - Full Card Previews & Predictions for Tonight

Let's dive in on the UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer odds.

The bloodshed in the Pacific Northwest will pit former champion Israel Adesanya against Joe Pyfer in the main event tonight, while Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber will meet for a second time in the co-main. The evening was supposed to kick off with Road to the UFC Season 3 featherweight winner Zhu Kangjie and Marcio Barboa but the fight was scrapped as Zhu withdrew due to injury. 

The Prelims are scheduled to kick off at 5 p.m. ET, with the Main Card following at 8 p.m. ET.  You can stream all of the action on Paramount+.

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🎟️ UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer betting insights

Here are some betting insights from BetMGM in the hours before the fights begin.

Most-bet fighters to win

1. Israel Adesanya (-150)
2. Yousri Belgaroui (+105)
3. Terrance McKinney (-200)
4. Casey O'Neill (-115)
5. Alexa Grasso (+155)

Most-bet props

1. Michael Chiesa by KO/TKO or DQ (+700)
2. Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO or DQ (+275)
3. Joe Pyfer by KO/TKO or DQ (+250)
4. Joe Pyfer by submission (+550)
5. Joe Pyfer by decision/technical decision (+800)

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📺 Where to watch UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer tonight

• Date: Saturday, March 28
• Start times: Prelims - 5 p.m. ET, Main Card - 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle)
• Steaming: Paramount+

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📊 UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer odds - Main Card

Israel Adesanya (24-5) vs. Joe Pyfer (15-3)

Israel Adesanya notes:

• The Vengeful Architect: Needs to prove his elite counter-striking hasn't lost its step against the division's newest power-hitters.
• Key stat: 80" reach (5" advantage)

Joe Pyfer notes:

• The Hype Train Conductor: Since his viral DWCS knockout, Pyfer has steamrolled the middleweight rankings.
• Key stat: 5 of 6 UFC wins by stoppage

🩸 Betting outlook

I'm taking Adesanya's moneyline. I think the veteran savvy should be enough to navigate Pyfer's power and leads to a unanimous decision. If you want to back the underdog here, look to the added value found with the KO/TKO price.

Alexa Grasso (16-5-1) vs. Maycee Barber (15-2)

Alex Grasso notes:

• The Boxing Matriarch: Her crisp Mexican boxing is the gold standard of the division, and she’ll look to repeat her tactical masterclass over Barber from 2021.
• Key stat: 4.11 significant strikes/min, 0.41 takedowns per 15 minutes

Maycee Barber notes:

• The Momentum Machine: Riding a 7-fight win streak since losing to Grasso, "The Future" is finally realizing her potential.
• Key stat: 4.61 significant strikes/min, 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes

🩸 Betting outlook

You can target this a few ways. First, I think Over 2.5 rounds is a solid choice to add to a parlay. I also don't mind Barber's moneyline, choosing her momentum over Grasso's prior victory over her.

Michael Chiesa (19-7) vs. Niko Price 

Michael Chiesa notes:

• The Maverick’s Final Stand: Fighting in his home state of Washington, Chiesa has confirmed this as his retirement bout.
• Key stat: 3.05 takedowns per 15 mins

Niko Price notes:

• The Hybrid Chaos Agent: Always the spoiler, Price enters on late notice
• Key stat: has lost five of his last six bouts

🩸 Betting outlook

Chiesa by decision is a fun angle to target as he looks to go out on a high in front of fans. You could also consider Under 1.5 rounds here, but it's not my favorite way to attack this one.

Julian Erosa (31-13) vs. Lerryan Douglas (13-5)

Julian Erosa notes:

• The Volume Violator: "Juicy J" is a cardio-intensive nightmare who weaponizes pace.
• Key stat: 6.2 strikes landed/min

Lerryan Douglas notes:

• The Brazilian Buzzsaw: Making his UFC debut, he enters on a five-bout KO/TKO win streak
• Key stat: his only "UFC" fight, in Dana White's Contender Series, lasted just 36 seconds

🩸 Betting outlook

Given the odds here it's hard to find solid value. Douglas via KO/TKO in the first round is a choice, but I tend to shy away from that type of wager. A very small portion of a unit on Erosa by decision is an interesting play, hoping that he can hang in there long enough to overwhelm the newcomer.

Mansur Abdul-Malik (9-0-1) vs. Yousri Belgaroui (9-3)

Mansur Abdul-Malik notes:

• The Blue-Chip Destroyer: He combines elite wrestling credentials with a 100% KO/TKO rate, making him the card’s "must-watch" prospect.
• Key stat: 100% KO/TKO rate (7-0 KO/TKO, 2-0 submission)

Yousri Belgaroui notes:

• The Kickboxing Specialist: Belgaroui has the height and reach to make any striker look amateur, recording a third-round KO/TKO over Azamat Bekoev in his UFC debut (October)
• Key stat: 5.82 strikes landed/min

🩸 Betting outlook

Abdul-Malik's moneyline is very tempting here, given his elite wrestling. I'm having a hard time getting to any other market, despite his finishing rate.

Terrance McKinney (17-8) vs. Kyle Nelson (17-6-1)

Terrance McKinney notes:

• The first-round assassin: McKinney is the definition of "all or nothing." Every single one of his UFC wins has come in the first round, and three of his five UFC losses have also come in the first round
• Key stat: 100% finish rate in a career that started in 2017

Kyle Nelson notes: 

• The Monster of the North: Canada’s own "Monster" has reinvented himself as a durable, tactical grinder
• Key stat: Nelson's fighters last nearly eight minutes longer on average (10:24) than McKinney's (2:46)

🩸 Betting outlook

There are two plus money plays you can choose from here, but it's a bit of pick your poison on which fighter you want to back. McKinney via first-round KO is an option, Nelson moneyline is the other play. 

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📊 UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer odds - Prelims

🔍️ Find the best odds for every bet

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Ignacio Bahamondes (17-6) vs. Tofiq Musayev (22-6)

Ignacio Bahamondes notes:

• The Chilean Sniper: A 6'3" lightweight who uses dynamic spinning kicks and long-range jabs to pick opponents apart
• Key stat: 6.55 strikes/min

Tofiq Musayev notes:

• The Iron Veteran: Musayev brings championship-level experience (Rizin FF) and a heavy-handed style that can drop anyone
• Key stat: Eighteen of his 22 career wins are via KO/TO

🩸 Betting outlook

I like Bahamondes to be able to keep Musayev at bay with his six-inch reach advantage. While his moneyline odds are a little long for a standalone wager, they're fine to put into a parlay.

Chase Hooper (16-4-1) vs. Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2)

Chase Hooper notes:

• The Grappling Prodigy Evolved: No longer just a submission specialist, "The Dream" has added a high-volume striking game to his world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
• Key stat: 2.13 submissions per 15 mins

Lance Gibson Jr. notes:

• The Legacy Contender: Lost his debut to King Green via split decision in December
• Key stat: Absorbed 4.33 strikes per minute in his UFC debut, landing just 2.00 strikes per minute

🩸 Betting outlook

Hooper will be too much for Gibson to handle. While "Fearless" won't be easy to submit, Hooper's increasing striking and world-class Jiu-Jitsu will come out on top. This is a moneyline parlay play from me though, as I haven't seen enough of Gibson to comfortably dive into a method of victory play.

Marcin Tybura (27-10) vs. Tyrell Fortune (17-3)

Marcin Tybura notes:

• The Polish Anchor: A veteran gatekeeper who uses superior weight distribution and clinch work to drown younger, faster heavyweights
• Key stat: 33.82% takedown accuracy

Tyrell Fortune notes: 

• The Heavy-Handed Newcomer: A late replacement with massive power, Fortune comes in on a 3-fight KO streak.
• Key stat: 35 years old (Heavyweight prime)

🩸 Betting outlook

I like Fortune here as a small favorite, or if you wanted to get a little riskier, you could definitely dabble in his KO/TKO market. The one angle I'll be taking on Tybura is that if Fortune doesn't seem to have power here to get this wrapped up in the first round, Tybura definitely might be able to grind out the victory, and is a reasonable live betting angle. 

Casey O'Neill (10-2) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (11-3)

Casey O'Neill notes:

• The King of the Coast: Relies on a smothering pace and one of the highest strike-output rates in the flyweight division
• Key stat: 7.89 strikes landed/min

Gabriella Fernandes notes:

• Tough sledding: Two of her three career losses have come since joining the UFC
• Key stat: Has allowed 5.19 strikes per minute over her five UFC fights, going 3-2

🩸 Betting outlook

I don't think that Fernandes is going to be able to hang with O'Neill over three rounds, despite what the oddsmakers say. I'll take the underdog O'Neill here on the moneyline, and might also dabble a partial-unit play on O'Neill by decision.

Navajo Stirling (8-0) vs. Bruno Lopes (14-2)

Navajo Stirling notes:

• City Kickboxing Heir: Undefeated prospect with three decision victories to start his UFC career
• Key stat: 75% takedown defense

Bruno Lopes notes:

• The Gritty Enforcer: A durable veteran (career started in 2013) who thrives in high-pressure situations.
• Key stat: 100% takedown defense

🩸 Betting outlook

Stirling is way too big of a favorite to play on its own, although as a part of a parlay, it's a great pick. His KO/TKO price hasn't yet dropped, but I expect it to be steep. 

Ricky Simon (22-7) vs. Adrian Yanez (17-6)

Ricky Simon notes:

• The Bantamweight Battery: A cardio machine whose game plan is 15 minutes of relentless takedown attempts and suffocating top control
• Key stat: 4.66 takedowns per 15 mins

Adrian Yanez notes: 

• The Texas Sharpshooter: Yañez excels at countering aggressive wrestlers with precise, heavy-handed combinations.
• Key stat: 6.23 strikes landed/min

🩸 Betting outlook

I don't have a lot of faith in either of these fighters, but I do think that Yanez is a dangerous underdog that could record the KO/TKO victory. With prices expected to be in the nearly +300 range, that's worth a dabble to me. 

Alexia Thainara (13-1) vs. Bruna Brasil (11-6-1)

Alexia Thainara notes:

• "The Rising Contender": Currently ranked #13, Thainara is on an 11-fight win streak
• Key stat: 100% takedown defense across three UFC bouts

Bruna Brasil notes:

• The Versatile Striker: Brasil is a dangerous striker, and has been known to connect on a flashy kick
• Key stat: 2.57 strikes landed/min

🩸 Betting outlook

Brasil has had a rough go in the UFC, and things aren't going to get any better on Saturday. The issue here is that Thainara is a prohibitive betting favorite, only worth a play in a parlay to try to boost the odds a bit. Fine to lay off altogether.

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