Topuria vs. Oliveira Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 317
Ilia Topuria moves up in weight for a high-stakes clash with Charles Oliveira at Saturday’s UFC 317, and our Topuria vs. Oliveira prediction looks at this showdown for the vacant lightweight crown at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Topuria aims to become a two-division champion after vacating his featherweight throne earlier this year. He most recently defended his old title last October with a third-round KO of Max Holloway at UFC 308,
Oliveira aims to reclaim UFC gold after winning his rematch with Michael Chandler by unanimous decision at UFC 309 in November.
📊 Topuria vs. Oliveira UFC odds
Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday.
| Topuria | Method of victory | Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| -425 | Win outright | +330 |
| -175 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +1100 |
| +800 | Win by unanimous decision | +2200 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
While BetMGM has our best bet for Saturday’s headliner, DraftKings is our sportsbook of choice on the strength of its straight-up moneyline action and greater variety of prop lines for those looking to get creative with their bets.
🥊 Topuria vs. Oliveira prediction & fight preview
✅ Prediction: Oliveira to win
📊 Best odds: +330 via DraftKings ($10 to win $33)
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The best sports betting sites seem to have written Oliveira, and I believe they’ve jumped the gun.
Oliveira has faced (and usually beaten) nothing but world-class opposition over the better part of a decade at lightweight, and he has the skill set to bring Topuria into uncharted territory. Oliveira enjoys a five-inch edge in reach and is simply better at making his strikes count, landing 55% of his attempts to Topuria’s 47%.
Even if Topuria hopes to flaunt his long-dormant grappling, Oliveira could make him regret it, as his positional awareness, transitions, and finishing instincts are otherworldly.
Despite his somewhat recent victory over Chandler and status as an ex-champ, Oliveira entered fight week a sizable underdog and remains one as of early Saturday morning. Most of the best sports betting apps list the former titleholder around +300, with DraftKings leading the way at +330.
💰 Topuria vs. Oliveira best bet
✅ Best bet: Oliveira by KO/TKO or submission
📊 Best odds: +475 via BetMGM ($10 to win $47.50)
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With Oliveira sitting as such a heavy underdog, those banking on him to win can cover their bases with a double-chance bet without compromising on value.
Topuria isn’t the only one who’s matured as a striker, as Oliveira has developed into a technically proficient bruiser himself and boasts a varied arsenal.
Oliveira should test Topuria in ways we’ve never seen before, and since he could reclaim gold with a furious salvo almost as easily as with one of his patented submissions, we’re going with a double-chance bet on Oliveira by stoppage.
You’ll find tempting value on a 32nd career finish for “Do Bronx” with any of our best sportsbooks. Although DraftKings got the nod for our moneyline bet and offers excellent double-chance value at +425, BetMGM is the book to beat at +475.
🆚 Topuria vs. Oliveira tale of the tape
| Topuria | Oliveira | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 154.5 lbs |
| 69 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 16-0 | Record | 35-10 (1 NC) |
📡 How to watch Topuria vs. Oliveira: UFC 317
📅 Saturday, June 28
🕗 10:00 p.m. ET
📍 T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
📺 PPV | 🛜 ESPN+
💡 More UFC predictions today
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- Topuria vs. Oliveira prediction
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❓ Topuria vs. Oliveira FAQs
Who is favored to win UFC tonight?
Ilia Topuria is favored to become a double-champion tonight with odds of -425.
How do UFC odds work?
UFC odds work very similarly to team sports. The favorite will have "minus"-money odds. In this case, Topuria is listed at -425, which means he has a 80.95% implied probability of winning.
Who will win between Topuria vs. Oliveira?
We're predicting the underdog, Charles Oliveira to win.
💵 Best UFC betting sites
Ready to bet on UFC 317? Check out the best UFC betting sites and best sportsbook promos for this weekend's card:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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