Who’ll Win Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction & Odds Today: UFC 321 Abu Dhabi Best Bet
My Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane prediction headlines UFC 321 today at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The English interim champ returns as a heavy betting favorite to defend his belt and prove he’s the division’s most complete heavyweight. Aspinall is a -460 betting favorite at FanDuel, while Gane comes back at +320.
The co-main event slotting in Abu Dhabi’s afternoon main card (2 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV) gives fans a stylistic clash between the UFC’s fastest-finishing big man and its slickest kickboxer. Our UFC picks are on Aspinall by submission (+290 via FanDuel), a finish that makes sense when you consider the Brit’s strength and Ciryl’s weaknesses.
🔮 Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane predictions: UFC 321
💰️ Aspinall vs. Gane picks
- Pick to win: Aspinall (-460 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Best bet: Aspinall by submission (+290 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane odds: UFC 321
Odds via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Tom Aspinall | Ciryl Gane | |
|---|---|---|
| -460 | Win outright | +320 |
| -110 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +550 |
| +290 | Win by unanimous decision | +3500 |
| +1100 | Win by points | +900 |
| Over: -118 | Over/Under 1.5 rounds | Under: -106 |
🆚 Who will win Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane?
Aspinall’s blend of elite hand speed, level-changes, and fight IQ makes him a nightmare matchup for a rangy kickboxer like Gane. While Gane thrives at distance behind clean footwork and accurate kicks, he’s struggled badly when opponents chain takedowns off pressure exchanges. The Englishman’s pace and 67% striking accuracy set up those entries perfectly, and at -460, oddsmakers clearly see the same gap.
A $10 bet on Aspinall would return $12.17 total.
💰 Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane best bet: UFC 321
Check our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this fight.
🔥 Aspinall by Submission (+290)
Aspinall’s submission angle isn’t a stretch, despite what the longer odds say. Against Alexander Volkov, he shot clean, passed, and armbarred him inside one round. Aspinall also chained a takedown to a rear-naked choke in Round 2 vs Andre Arlovski. Those sequences mirror Gane’s historical weak spots: conceding takedowns (four of five vs. Francis Ngannou) and quick submission danger (guillotine loss to Jon Jones at 2:04 of Round 1).
The key ingredients all tilt toward Aspinall. He fires quick, compact entries, using jab-cross combinations to lift Gane’s guard and expose the hips. Once he lands on top, he advances immediately, sliding to mount or taking the back without hesitation. His relentless pace fuels an elite finishing rate, as he has won eight times in the UFC, with only one opponent reaching the second round before tapping early in Round 2. Until Gane shows durable grappling layers against elite chain wrestlers, the submission lane remains wide open. At +290, the price is too strong to ignore.
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🥊 Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane tale of the tape
| Tom Aspinall | Ciryl Gane | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 35 |
| 6’5” | Height | 6’4” |
| 251 | Weight | 245.5 |
| 78” | Reach | 81” |
| 15-3-0 | Record | 13-2-0 |
| 11 (73%) | Wins by KO | 6 (46%) |
| 4 (27%) | Wins by submission | 3 (23%) |
| First meeting | Head-to-head | First meeting |
📺 How to watch Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025
- Time: Main card 2 p.m. ET
- Location: Etihad Arena (Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates)
- TV: ESPN+ Pay-Per-View
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