UFC 316 Predictions & Odds Tonight: Expert Picks for Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

The Suga Show, Sean O'Malley, returns to the cage tonight as he looks to take the bantamweight belt back from Merab Dvalishvili. Our UFC 316 predictions highlight our favorite expert picks from the main card, including a plus-money prop in the co-main event.

Our best sports betting sites list Dvalishvili as a -260 betting favorite in tonight's main event. Prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, with the main card starting around 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV from Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.

💡 UFC 316 best bets

Here are my best UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for tonight's card, with my UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

✅ Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision (-155 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison to go the distance (+175 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Vincente Luque ML vs. Kevin Holland (+194 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🏆 Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Has enough changed - outside of O'Malley's debaucherous day-to-day habits and his hair color - to justify a rematch nine months removed from the original bout? While "Suga Show" puts butts in seats and drives pay-per-view sales, this is not a fight fans were begging to see again so soon.

Dvalishvili dominated the main event at UFC 306, and we're expecting much of the same tonight. The Georgian is a vastly superior wrestler, who can even hold his own sparring with the challenger in short stints. This is a versatility O'Malley doesn't possess. The American is outclassed by the champ on the mats.

Fights against "The Machine" are battles of attrition. Dvalishvili wears opponents down by coming at them with a relentless energy, taking them down at an elite clip. The striker stands little chance, with this fight likely to end similarly to 11 of Dvalishvili's last 12 bouts, via unanimous decision.

👉 Check out our in-depth Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley fight preview.

📊 Best odds: -155 via FanDuel ($10 to win $6.45)

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🏆 Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison to go the distance ⭐⭐⭐

If you tune into this card expecting superb strikers in the main event, you'll be thoroughly disappointed. The champion and the challenger, a former judo gold medalist, aren't making it a secret how they'll approach this fight. It'd be an understatement to say these bantamweights will get to the ground early and often.

While Harrison is the superior athlete, she's too heavily juiced to back against a formidable champion like Pena in this spot. Instead, we'll look to play the prop market, which provides some plus-money value at our best sports betting apps.

Harrison and Pena have combined to go to the judge's scorecards in four of their last six fights. While Harrison by decision (+200 at BetMGM) is tempting, we'll show some restraint and bet this bout to go the distance at slightly shorter odds. Both wrestlers are disciplined enough to avoid a finish, and that's what we're banking on.

👉 Check out our in-depth Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison fight preview.

📊 Best odds: +175 via BetMGM ($10 to win $17.50)

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🥊 Vincente Luque moneyline vs. Kevin Holland ⭐⭐⭐⭐

My gut reaction when I saw Holland on this card was to pick against him, no matter the opponent. Imagine my surprise when I saw "Trailblazer" listed as a heavy favorite. The American has lost at a 60% clip over his last 10 fights dating back to 2022.

While Luque hasn't been much better during that span (6-4), he's got the stylistic advantage over Holland at UFC 316. The Brazilian's grappling will cause problems for Holland, whose inability to wrestle has contributed heavily to his 10 losses under this promotion since 2018.

Luque should look to get Holland on his back as early and often as humanly possible. If he manages to control the fight on the ground, he should pass this latest test with flying colors, no matter the method. The only chance the favorite has is luring his opponent into a standing scrap. We'll happily take the underdog, who is trading at nearly 2/1.

📊 Best odds: +194 via FanDuel ($10 to win $19.40)

🔮 UFC 316 expert picks

• UFC 316 odds
• UFC 316 predictions
• Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley prediction
• Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison prediction

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