UFC 323 Predictions & Best Bets Tonight: UFC Picks for Las Vegas
Our UFC 323 predictions and best bets are ready for tonight's championship doubleheader from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET, with Merab Dvalishvili currently a heavy -450 betting favorite in his bantamweight title rematch against Petr Yan (+300).
The card features two title fights, with Alexandre Pantoja defending his flyweight championship as a -250 favorite against surging contender Joshua Van (+200) in the co-main event.
UFC 323 predictions & best bets
See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights.
| Best bet | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili by decision | -210 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Alexandre Pantoja by submission | +145 via bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Brandon Moreno moneyline | +104 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Payton Talbott by decision | +105 via BetMGM | ⭐⭐⭐ |
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 fight card
Check our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this weekend's fights.
Main card
- Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2, Bantamweight Championship
- Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van, Flyweight Championship
- Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira, Flyweight
- Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott, Bantamweight
- Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov, Light Heavyweight
Prelims
- Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres, Lightweight
- Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan, Lightweight
- Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva, Women’s Flyweight
- Fares Ziam vs. Nazim Sadykhov, Lightweight
- Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira, Middleweight
- Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner, Lightweight
- Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos, Featherweight
- Ibo Aslan vs. Iwo Baraniewski, Light Heavyweight
- Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli, Middleweight
UFC 323 best bets
Search the best player prop odds for any fighter across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision vs. Petr Yan ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
In their first bout, Dvalishvili set a UFC record with 49 takedown attempts en route to a lopsided decision. Yan remains one of the cleanest technical boxers in MMA, but that precision becomes irrelevant against Dvalishvili's ceaseless wrestling once the cage cuts shrink his space.
The issue for Yan is sustaining resistance for 25 minutes against the division's highest-paced wrestler. Merab's motor is unmatched, and even defended takedowns cost energy and score optics. At -210 odds (67.7% implied probability), a $10 bet returns $4.76 profit.
Alexandre Pantoja by Submission vs. Joshua Van ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Van's hyperactive offense generates 8.86 strikes per minute at 56% accuracy, but he absorbs over six significant strikes per minute, trading safety for spectacle. Pantoja fights with balance and patience, making up for lower output with precision in grappling transitions. His 2.80 takedowns and 1.0 submissions per 15 minutes show how seamlessly he turns pressure into control.
Once he clinches against the cage, his trips and rear-naked choke setups become fight-ending threats. At +145 odds (40.8% implied probability), a $10 bet returns $14.50 profit.
Brandon Moreno ML vs. Tatsuro Taira ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Moreno's experience and composure in chaotic scrambles give him an edge the longer the fight goes. Taira has never fought someone with Moreno's blend of durability, championship seasoning, and defensive grappling. Moreno's jab and improved shot selection make him the cleaner minute-winner on the feet, while his ability to scramble and deny hooks should prevent prolonged back-takes.
Taira's lone loss came to Brandon Royval via decision after failing to impose his grappling. Moreno's durability and late-round control make him the more reliable pick. At +104 odds (49.0% implied probability), a $10 bet returns $10.40 profit.
Payton Talbott by Decision vs. Henry Cejudo ⭐⭐⭐
Talbott represents the new wave at 135 pounds. He’s tall, dynamic, and high volume with over six significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy. After being out-grappled by Raoni Barcelos, he returned more composed defensively, stuffing shots and controlling the center. Cejudo enters with sharper defense and elite positioning, but he's 0-3 since returning from retirement, all decision losses.
The physical realities favor Talbott over three rounds as he controls range with his jab and kicks, forcing Cejudo to cross dangerous distance. At +105 odds (48.8% implied probability), a $10 bet returns $10.50 profit.
How to watch UFC 323
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
- Time: 10 p.m. ET (Main Card), 6 p.m. ET (Early-prelims)
- Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
- TV: Pay-per-view (Main Card), ESPN+ (Early-prelims)
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