Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 316
Merab Dvalishvili puts his bantamweight strap on the line against Sean O’Malley at UFC 316 tonight, and we’ve got our Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley prediction - part of our UFC picks - before the pair closes the bill at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.
The reigning titleholder defends the throne for the second time after claiming it from O’Malley himself on points at UFC 306 this past September. Dvalishvili most recently thwarted Umar Nurmagomedov in January at UFC 311, the unanimous decision extending his win streak to a gaudy 12. O’Malley, by comparison, hasn’t entered the UFC Octagon since falling to Dvalishvili.
👉 Check out our UFC 316 predictions
🥊 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley prediction & fight preview
Tonight's closer is an immediate rematch for O’Malley, and those scarcely go well for deposed champions.
Indeed, the number of modern ex-UFC champs who’ve won their immediate rematches can be counted on one hand. Combine that with the lopsided nature of UFC 306’s headliner, and there’s little reason to think O’Malley’s second crack at Dvalishvili will play out any differently.
A rangy striker with absurd measurables for a bantamweight, O’Malley’s assets did him little good against Dvalishvili, who rode his otherworldly cardio to outstrike and outgrapple O’Malley for five rounds.
The challenger won’t be playing wrestler this time around, nor will the champ get to shucking and jiving, so expect Dvalishvili to stage another patented showing with oodles of takedowns and sheer hustle to neutralize O’Malley yet again.
To the shock of absolutely nobody, Dvalishvili opened as an easy favorite and remains one not long before the cage door shuts. You’ll find the lines on a 13th straight win for the champ varying slightly across our best sports betting sites, with BetMGM offering -278 over DraftKings (-290) and FanDuel (-300).
✅ Prediction: Dvalishvili to win (-278 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 73.5%
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💰 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley best bet
Dvalishvili is a decision machine, with 11 of his 12 straight victories coming on points. But while another unanimous verdict offers respectable value with FanDuel at -150, we’re going with a different kind of prop for UFC 316’s main event.
No matter who he’s fighting, Dvalishvili’s path to victory routinely goes through the takedown, having scored multiple in all but one of his UFC wins and double figures in three of them. Given that he averages a whopping 5.89 takedowns per 15 minutes, many of our best sports betting apps are thinking Dvalishvili could hit around seven with 25 minutes to work.
We’ve got him landing at least that many at O’Malley’s expense for this week’s best bet. BetMGM has our moneyline bet, but their props are limited, which is why we’re going with FanDuel at +130 on Dvalishvili landing seven or more takedowns.
✅ Best bet: Dvalishvili to land 7+ takedowns (+130 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 43.5%
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📊 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley odds
Odds via FanDuel as of Saturday.
| Dvalishvili | Method of victory | O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| -300 | Win outright | +235 |
| +950 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +440 |
| -150 | Win by unanimous decision | +600 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
With the defending champ sitting comfortably as a favorite across our best sportsbooks hours before fight night, FanDuel has our pick as this matchup’s book of choice, given its more favorable value on most available prop bets.
🆚 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley tale of the tape
| Dvalishvili | O'Malley | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 30 |
| 5'6" | Height | 5'11" |
| 134 lbs. | Weight | 135 lbs. |
| 68" | Reach | 72" |
| 19-4 | Record | 18-2 (1 NC) |
📡 How to watch Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley: UFC 316
📅 Saturday, June 7
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 Prudential Center (Newark, N.J.)
📺 ESPN+ PPV | 🛜 ESPN+ PPV
🔮 UFC 316 expert picks
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💵 Best UFC betting sites
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