Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 Prediction & Odds: Who Will Win UFC 323 Las Vegas?

My Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan prediction has the champion retaining his bantamweight title in their UFC 323 rematch tonight. Dvalishvili is a -450 betting favorite to win against Yan (+350) when the main event begins at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 10:00 PM ET on PPV, with prelims at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN2.

This title fight rematch marks Dvalishvili's potential fourth title defense of 2025, an unprecedented feat in UFC bantamweight history. In their first meeting in March 2023, Dvalishvili dominated with a record-breaking 49 takedown attempts and won via unanimous decision. Yan has since rebounded with three straight victories and looks to reclaim the championship he once held.

Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 predictions: UFC 323

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Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 fight preview

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This rematch reprises a clear stylistic battle between pace and precision. Yan remains one of the cleanest technical boxers in MMA, landing 5.12 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy. His counter game and defensive shell can frustrate most opponents. But that precision often becomes irrelevant against Dvalishvili's ceaseless movement and chain wrestling once the cage cuts shrink his space.

In their first bout, Dvalishvili's pressure never relented. He weaponized volume, clinching and re-shooting every time Yan created separation. The result was the most takedown attempts in UFC history (49) and a lopsided unanimous decision. Dvalishvili's striking defense (56%) and low significant strikes absorbed per minute (2.55) allowed him to wade forward safely while Yan struggled to find a sustained rhythm.

Yan's path this time is clear: hold the center, stuff early shots, and punish entries with uppercuts and knees. The issue is sustaining that resistance for 25 minutes against the division's highest-paced wrestler. Merab's motor is unmatched, and even defended takedowns cost energy and score optics in the judges' eyes.

Expect Yan to have early success with clean counters and body work. Still, once Dvalishvili corrals him and chains his level changes, the fight should revert to familiar territory: fence rides, mat returns, and long stretches of control.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili to win (-450 via bet365)

Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 best bet

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Dvalishvili by Decision (-210 via FanDuel)

While Dvalishvili's moneyline at -450 offers limited value, his method of victory provides a much better betting proposition. Twelve of his last 14 wins have come via decision, and his style is built specifically for grinding out five-round championship performances rather than hunting finishes.

Against Yan, the path to victory remains the same as their first meeting: relentless wrestling pressure, cage control, and volume striking. Yan has never been knocked out in his UFC career and possesses an 85% takedown defense rate, meaning he's durable enough to survive 25 minutes but not skilled enough to completely neutralize Dvalishvili's wrestling attack.

The champion averages 6.40 takedowns per 15 minutes and maintains an 82% takedown defense, creating a one-way grappling dynamic that favors prolonged control over explosive finishes. At -210 odds (67.74% implied probability), a $10 bet returns $4.76 profit, offering solid value on the most likely outcome in this rematch.

Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 odds

Odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 tale of the tape

How to watch Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2: UFC 323

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Time: 10 p.m. ET (main card), 8 p.m. ET (prelims), 6 p.m. ET (early prelims)
• Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
• TV: Pay-per-view (main card), ESPN2 (prelims), ESPN+ (early prelims)