UFC 318 Predictions | Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3 Best Bets, Expert Picks & Odds
The eyes of the MMA world are on The Big Easy tonight, as my Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier prediction analyzes the UFC 318 main event.
The third and final installment of the rivalry takes place tonight, with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN+ PPV) from Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. Our best sports betting sites list Holloway as the betting favorite (-130) despite losing both prior bouts to Poirier in his career.
My UFC predictions highlight my winner pick for the BMF title fight, as well as my UFC best bets - featuring a method of victory play - for tonight's highly anticipated headliner.
📊 Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier UFC odds
UFC 318 odds via BetMGM as of Saturday, July 19.
| Max Holloway | Method of victory | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| -135 | Win outright | +110 |
| +350 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +275 |
| +2000 | Win by submission | +1100 |
| +150 | Win by decision | +350 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
While I won't delve too deep into my UFC 318 best bet, I will tease my pick: Holloway to win by decision.
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🧐 Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier betting insights
Our UFC 318 betting insights are courtesy of BetMGM as of Saturday, July 19.
| Betting Insight | Max Holloway | Dustin Poirier |
| Opening odds | -125 | +105 |
| Current odds | -135 | +110 |
| Percentage of bets | 23% | 77% |
| Percentage of handle | 31% | 69% |
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3 is the most bet bout at our best sports betting apps. The main event accounts for 48% of the UFC 318 action at BetMGM this weekend.
🥊 UFC 318 predictions: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier preview
✅ Prediction: Max Holloway to beat Dustin Poirier
📊 Best odds: -130 via ESPN BET ($10 to win $7.69)
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My UFC picks go against the grain, as I'm fading the public and rocking with the favorite. Holloway isn't one to shy away from the bright lights - in fact, he prefers them - and as much as we'd like to think a raucous crowd in Poirier's home state can will him to victory, I'm not convinced.
Sentimental aspects of this showdown aside, Holloway is in better form than the soon-to-be retiree. It goes without saying he's a much more mature fighter than the individual Poirier faced in 2019, never mind 2012.
The question remains: does the former featherweight have enough power to go tit for tat with his heavier lightweight counterpart? If the lethal blows dealt to Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 are anything to go by, I'd say yes, Holloway packs enough of a punch to match Poirier's strikes.
I like Holloway to win (-130), but if given a choice between the two, I'd rather play his method of victory props for more value.
💰 UFC 318 predictions: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier best bet
✅ Best bet: Max Holloway to win by decision
📊 Best odds: +180 via FanDuel ($10 to win $18)
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While I believe Holloway has enough to counter-punch Poirier for the first time in the trilogy, I don't think "Blessed" has the power necessary to knock "The Diamond" out before the 25-minute mark. After all, it's easy to forget that eight of Holloway's last 11 fights have gone to the judges' scorecards.
I expect both of these legendary fighters to leave it all on the mats and give the crowd some entertaining rounds. The experience that Holloway has gained in the six years since his last fight with Poirier encourages me, which is why I'll take a flier on him to win by decision. Our best sportsbooks offer this prop at a mouthwatering +180 price.
If you'd prefer to stay away from picking an outright winner, Caesars has the best odds on the market for a bet on the bout to go the distance at +100. Caesars is the only book offering this play at even money, whereas books like DraftKings are charging a steep price of -130.
🆚 Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier tale of the tape
| Max Holloway | Dustin Poirier | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 36 |
| 5'11" | Height | 5'9" |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 164 lbs. |
| 69" | Reach | 72" |
| 26-8 | Record | 30-9, 1 NC |
📡 How to watch Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier : UFC 318
📅 Saturday, July 19
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 Smoothie King Center (New Orleans)
📺 ESPN+ PPV | 🛜 ESPN+ PPV
❓ Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier FAQs
Who is favored to win UFC tonight?
Max Holloway is the betting favorite with -135 odds to win at BetMGM. Those odds imply a 57.45% probability he beats Dustin Poirier at UFC 318.
How do UFC odds work?
Max Holloway is the betting favorite with -135 odds to Dustin Poirier's +110 moneyline price. Minus-money odds indicate the betting favorite, with a $10 winning wager returning $7.41 in profits, as opposed to an $11 profit on a $10 winning bet backing the plus-money underdog.
Who will win between Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier?
I predict Max Holloway (-135 at BetMGM) will beat Dustin Poirier outright at UFC 318.
💵 Best UFC betting sites
Ready to bet on UFC 318? Check out the best UFC betting sites and best sportsbook promos for this weekend's card:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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