Gaethje vs. Pimblett Odds & UFC 324 Fight Info: Who Wins the Interim Lightweight Strap
The interim lightweight strap is on the line Saturday when Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett square off at UFC 324, and we have the latest Gaethje vs. Pimblett odds and UFC 324 analysis. Paddy "The Baddy" is a -245 moneyline betting favorite (71.1% implied win probability) to claim the title for the first time.
The bout headlines the main card, which is slated to get underway from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas at 9 p.m. ET
🆚 Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett live odds
Here are the odds from our best UFC betting sites for Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett, which update in real time.
Moneyline analysis
The UFC 324 odds have Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett as the moneyline betting favorite for this fight, but perhaps shouldn't be. Gaethje is the far more experienced fighter and has been an interim lightweight champ before. His resume, despite having losses peppered throughout, reads like a who's who of lightweight fighters. This is a major step up in class for Pimblett.
But he enters with a perfect 7-0 record since joining the UFC, and is a well-hyped star. That's perhaps why this line isn't as close as it should be in reality.
Total rounds analysis
This is a five-round fight, but I'm not expecting it to go all the way. The market is nearly split between the Over (-116) and Under (-110) 2.5 rounds, but I see it landing on the Under. Poirier has a method to an early victory by taking advantage of Pimblett's soft defense; if Paddy can get the job done, it will likely be via an early scramble resulting in a submission of Gaethje. The former champ does have two submission losses across his last eight fights, and they both came within the first round and a half.
Method of victory odds
Method of victory odds via FanDuel.
| Paddy Pimblett | Method of victory | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| +490 | KO/TKO/DQ | +390 |
| +135 | Submission | +2700 |
| +550 | Decision (Points) | +550 |
Gaethje's experience and style is going to cause fits for the defense of Pimblett. Gaethje will need to be careful of Pimblett's takedowns, but if he can land leg kicks to wear the younger fighter down, he'll be able to do what he does best: land significant strikes. While Pimblett has shown some resilience, everyone has a chin until they don't, as the saying goes. Gaethje to win by KO/TKO/DQ at +390 presents excellent value as one of my best UFC picks.
⚖️ Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett tale of the tape
| Justin Gaethje | Paddy Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 70" | Reach | 70" |
| 26-5-0 | Record | 23-3-0 |
| 20 | Wins by KO | 7 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 10 |
📺 How to watch Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett: UFC 324
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 24
- Time: 9 p.m. ET (main card start)
- Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
- TV: Paramount+
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