Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 316

Can Kayla Harrison snatch the women's bantamweight belt from Julianna Pena tonight at UFC 316?

Last updated: June 7, 2025 6:02 PM EDT • 3 min read

Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison Prediction: UFC 316 Odds & Expert Picks — Pictured: Raquel Pennington (red gloves) fights Julianna Pena (blue gloves) in a women’s bantamweight title bout during UFC 307. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie via Imagn Images.

Julianna Pena will look to keep her second reign as bantamweight queen from becoming a one-and-done at UFC 316 today, as she defends her crown against Kayla Harrison in the co-main event at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Our Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison prediction - part of our UFC picks - backs the heavily-juiced favorite.

The defending champ takes the Octagon after reclaiming the UFC women’s bantamweight title with a split decision over Raquel Pennington at UFC 307 last October. Harrison, on the other hand, is a relative UFC neophyte, as she competes for promotional gold in just her third walk to the Octagon.

🥊 Pena vs. Harrison prediction & fight preview

Harrison enters her third UFC bout an enormous favorite, and for good reason.

The former Olympian competed at 155 pounds in the PFL, so while she successfully cut another 20 for weigh-ins, she’ll be the far thicker, physically stronger fighter once the cage door closes on Saturday. Between that, her world-class grappling, and relentless top control, it’s easy to think Pena will be in for a world of trouble.

In addition to outlanding Pena at 4.87 significant strikes per minute to 3.25, Harrison typically puts in most of her work on the mat, and her recent UFC bouts were no exception. Yes, Pena’s grit is worth commending, but grit won’t be enough to withstand Harrison’s takedowns, ground-and-pound, and submission attempts.

This one results in a co-headliner as lopsided as its odds, and Harrison claiming UFC gold. Indeed, the moneyline action on this matchup leaves much to be desired, with FanDuel and BetMGM listing a straight-up Harrison win at -700 and -714, respectively. DraftKings has them both beat this week, offering the Harrison win at -650.

✅ Prediction: Harrison to win (-650 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 86.67%

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💰 Pena vs. Harrison best bet

While Harrison packs a good wallop, her submission arsenal remains her most fearsome weapon, and I see her putting it to good use at Pena’s expense. The challenger has prematurely ended 13 of her 18 pro wins, seven of them by tapout. Pena, by comparison, has dropped two of her three UFC losses by submission and struggled when working off her back.

With this in mind, it shouldn’t be a matter of if, but when Harrison tosses Pena to the mat, after which she’ll mercilessly advance position, create openings with her mitts, and snatch a limb for another submission victory.

Unlike this matchup’s moneyline odds, method of victory props are certainly worth your attention. FanDuel leads our top sportsbooks with +145 on an eighth career tapout for Harrison, and those leaning toward a KO/TKO stoppage instead will find even more value at +240.

✅ Best bet: Harrison by submission (+145 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 40.82%

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📊 Pena vs. Harrison odds

Odds via FanDuel as of Saturday.

Pena	Method of victory	Harrison
+470	Win outright	-700
+1700	Win by KO/TKO/DQ	+330
+1100	Win by unanimous decision	+240
+5000	Draw	+5000

DraftKings may lead the way on moneyline odds for Saturday’s co-main event, but FanDuel gets the nod here as our best sports betting site of choice overall, mainly on the strength of its method of victory props.

🆚 Pena vs. Harrison tale of the tape

Pena		Harrison
35	Age	34
5’6”	Height	5’8"
135 lbs.	Weight	135 lbs.
69"	Reach	66"
13-5	Record	18-1

📡 How to watch Pena vs. Harrison: UFC 316

📅 Saturday, June 7
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 Prudential Center (Newark, N.J.)
📺 ESPN+ PPV | 🛜 ESPN+ PPV

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💵 Best UFC betting sites

Ready to bet on UFC 316? Check out the best UFC betting sites and best sportsbook promos for this weekend's card:

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Written By:
Themistoklis Alexis

Themistoklis Alexis has specialized in MMA- and boxing-specific sports betting for the past several years, having joined Sportsbook Review in early 2022. An avid bettor himself, he routinely places his bets with the especially user-friendly bet365, DraftKings for its array of prop lines, and/or FanDuel for its ever-compelling odds. Before coming to SBR, Themistoklis spent another few years covering the MMA beat at theScore, contributing everything from news stories to features to comprehensive fight week coverage, and was a diehard follower of the sport long before he ever covered it professionally. His introduction to MMA came in 2007 with UFC 74, where Randy Couture defended his heavyweight crown with a thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga. Themistoklis holds a Bachelor's degree in Journalism from Toronto's Centennial College. In addition to all things MMA, he is equally interested in both boxing and cinematic lore. If there's any advice he can impart to new and experienced sports bettors, it's to avoid betting against the greats and keep their options open, as committing to a single sportsbook can prove shortsighted and deprive them of access to the best available odds.