🩸 Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer Prediction, Picks & Odds: Adesanya too Smooth for Simple Pyfer

Future UFC Hall of Famer Israel Adesanya is back to business on Saturday, March 28, when he tangles with fringe contender Joe Pyfer at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle. The fight will serve as the main event for UFC Fight Night Seattle, and for more information, let's break it down in my official Adesanya vs. Pyfer prediction.

Both men enter this fight at exactly opposite points in their careers, with the former champion Adesanya looking for a win to stay relevant while Pyfer searches for a career-best victory that would catapult him up the rankings. Preliminary fights begin at 5:00 p.m. ET, while the main card is slated to start at 8 p.m. ET. Current UFC Fight Night odds favor Adesanya at -130.

🩸 Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer predictions: UFC Seattle

See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Total wagered: 5.6 units | Max profit: 5.8 units

💰 Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer best bet: Over 3.5 rounds (-130)

There's been some talk of Adesanya's fading durability, but historically, he's still been solid, only ever being finished once in less than 3.5 rounds, one time in his five career defeats.

The 36-year-old has a massive 80-inch reach and should be able to keep his opponent at the end of his jab and long-range kicks all night. I expect the first two rounds to be methodical before Adesanya starts to open up later in the fight to firmly pull ahead. In the end, this fight goes Over 3.5 rounds, and Adesanya earns himself a decision victory.

🆚 Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer fight preview

Check our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this fight.

On paper, Adesanya is definitely on a skid; however, he's still only losing to the division's elite fighters. His current three-fight losing streak consists of three fighters currently ranked in the top five.

This is a significant step down in competition for the former champion, as Pyfer ranks near the bottom of the top 15 and has never defeated a ranked UFC opponent. Pyfer has relied mainly on his jab to set up his striking in most of his fights, and with Adesanya having a five-inch reach advantage, staying on the outside will be his downfall.

I expect Pyfer to try wrestling once he gets frustrated, but with just a 33% career takedown accuracy, he will overwork and burn himself out. After a competitive first two rounds, look for Adesanya to use his superior striking pedigree and experience to outwork the American.

Prediction: Adesanya to win (-130 via FanDuel)

💡 How I'm handicapping Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer

For as good a career as Adesanya has had, financially backing him heavily at this stage of his career would be considered pretty risky, so I'm taking more of a moderate approach and wagering more conservatively. There's still value in his moneyline and the Over 3.5 rounds, but with 12 other fights on the card, there are a few better spots than this competitive main event. 

Overall, I have a little over five units invested in this main event to return roughly the same amount, but as long as Israel Adesanya sticks to the game plan and doesn't get overemotional, we should be in for a good time from both a fan and bettor perspective.

📊 Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer odds

Odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

⚖️ Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer tale of the tape

📺 How to watch Adesanya vs. Pyfer: UFC Fight Night Seattle

• Date: Saturday, March 28
• Time: 5 p.m. ET (prelims), 8 p.m. ET (main card)
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle)
• TV: Paramount+