Ortega vs. Sterling Prediction: UFC Shanghai Best Bets, Expert Picks & Odds

Aljamain Sterling and Brian Ortega will tusstle during UFC Shanghai, with the latter primed to pull off the upset.

Last Updated: August 22, 2025 2:24 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Brian Ortega during weigh-ins as we make our Ortega vs. Sterling prediction. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling will clash in the five-round featherweight co-headliner of UFC Shanghai this Saturday at Shanghai Indoor Stadium, and our Ortega vs. Sterling prediction comes 24 hours before the bill kicks off as part of our UFC picks.

The 34-year-old Ortega looks to bounce back in his return from an 11-month layoff. As for Sterling, the former bantamweight champ seeks to cement himself as a contender at 145 pounds after moving up in 2024.

I'm favoring Ortega for the upset in my Ortega vs. Sterling best bets.

📊 Ortega vs. Sterling UFC Shanghai odds

Odds via DraftKings as of Friday

Ortega	Method of victory	Sterling
+240	Win outright	-298
+1400	Win by KO/TKO/DQ	+800
+600	Win by unanimous decision	+120
+5000	Draw	+5000

Despite his much lengthier resume at featherweight, Ortega crosses the Pacific as the betting underdog, with a win by decision offering solid value for both him and Sterling.

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets + Over $200 Off NFL Sunday Ticket

21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in OR/NH. 1 per customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Get promo code to redeem NFL Sunday Ticket sub and max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets; 7 day expiry.

Claim $400

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

🥊 UFC Shanghai predictions: Ortega vs. Sterling preview

✅ UFC Shanghai prediction: Ortega to beat Sterling
📊 Best odds: +240 via DraftKings ($10 to win $24)

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets + Over $200 Off NFL Sunday Ticket

Claim $400

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

It won’t be pretty, but Ortega should leave Shanghai as the victor.

The longtime contender’s lauded jiu-jitsu chops should make Sterling think twice about pursuing takedowns, which means this pair will remain upright for the bulk of their date. With Sterling seeking to puzzle Ortega through his funky movement and land from distance, look for Ortega to close the gap while throwing with little regard for Sterling’s wrestling. As the cleaner striker with an output of 4.08 significant strikes landed per minute, Ortega should be the man to land the more quality shots, although he may struggle to keep the perpetually mobile Sterling in boxing range.

Their differing standup styles could make both men reluctant to pull the trigger. So don’t be surprised if there are stretches of inactivity, but Ortega should do enough with his mitts to get back in the win column.

Oddsmakers at our best sports betting sites haven’t been showing Ortega much respect, but that means you’ll find solid value on the L.A. native. While FanDuel offers a respectable +225 on a 17th career W for Ortega, DraftKings leads the way at +240.

💰 UFC Shanghai predictions: Ortega vs. Sterling best bet

✅ UFC Shanghai best bet: Ortega by decision
📊 Best odds: +490 via FanDuel ($10 to win $49)

Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.

Claim $300

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Ortega should leave Shanghai with a triumph, but he’ll just need all five rounds to do it.

The ex-title challenger has gone the full 25 minutes on four occasions, and he’s tasked with a foe who’s done the same 15 times as a pro. With the risk-averse Sterling tending to work from kickboxing range, Ortega will need to get past his long, awkward striking and land from the pocket. Such duels often leave us with long bouts of staring. But Ortega’s slick grappling and disregard for wrestling make him more likely to take risks. I’m banking on his gumption yielding the cleaner strikes - however sporadically - while earning an ugly decision.

If you’re pining for an even greater payout on Ortega, there are plenty of compelling prop lines to choose from. Should the bout prove as tepid as suspected, the judges may be divided on the verdict, so we’re going with a general win by decision over a unanimous or split victory for Ortega.

While several of the best sportsbooks offer +450 on an Ortega win through points, FanDuel leads the market with a tempting +490.

🆚 Ortega vs. Sterling tale of the tape

Ortega		Sterling
34	Age	36
5’9”	Height	5’7”
146 lbs.	Weight	145 lbs.
69”	Reach	71”
16-4 (1 NC)	Record	24-5

📡 How to watch Ortega vs. Sterling: UFC Shanghai

📅 Saturday, Aug. 23
🕗 6:00 a.m. ET (main card)
📍 Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Shanghai, China
📺 TV | 🛜 ESPN+

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Written by:
Themistoklis Alexis

Themistoklis Alexis has specialized in MMA- and boxing-specific sports betting for the past several years, having joined Sportsbook Review in early 2022. An avid bettor himself, he routinely places his bets with the especially user-friendly bet365, DraftKings for its array of prop lines, and/or FanDuel for its ever-compelling odds. Before coming to SBR, Themistoklis spent another few years covering the MMA beat at theScore, contributing everything from news stories to features to comprehensive fight week coverage, and was a diehard follower of the sport long before he ever covered it professionally. His introduction to MMA came in 2007 with UFC 74, where Randy Couture defended his heavyweight crown with a thrashing of Gabriel Gonzaga. Themistoklis holds a Bachelor's degree in Journalism from Toronto's Centennial College. In addition to all things MMA, he is equally interested in both boxing and cinematic lore. If there's any advice he can impart to new and experienced sports bettors, it's to avoid betting against the greats and keep their options open, as committing to a single sportsbook can prove shortsighted and deprive them of access to the best available odds.