Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira Prediction & Odds: Who Will Win UFC 323 Las Vegas?

Our Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira prediction has the former champion securing a crucial win in their UFC 323 flyweight bout on Saturday night. Tatsuro Taira is a -132 betting favorite to win against Moreno (+104) when the three-round contest begins at approximately 10:30 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view, with prelims at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

This potential title-eliminator pits championship experience against surging youth. Moreno, riding a two-fight win streak with victories over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg, looks to solidify another title shot. Taira, just 25 years old and 7-1 in the UFC, represents the future of the division with elite grappling and a relentless finishing rate that's earned him four Performance of the Night bonuses.

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira predictions: UFC 323

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Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira fight preview

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This matchup favors Moreno's experience edge in championship-level warfare. While Taira brings elite grappling and fast transitions, he's never faced someone with Moreno's blend of durability, scrambling ability, and defensive wrestling. The former two-time champion has survived five-round battles against killers like Deiveson Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja, building reads and managing energy better than any flyweight.

Moreno's striking provides clear advantages. His jab, combination work, and improved shot selection make him the cleaner minute-winner on the feet. He averages 3.8 significant strikes landed per minute and can build volume across three rounds. Taira's front-loaded offense - evidenced by his four first-round takedowns against HyunSung Park - suggests he may slow as Moreno's pace builds.

The grappling presents intrigue but favors the veteran. Moreno has developed into the division's best anti-wrestler, denying and escaping elite grapplers throughout his career. Taira will create scrambles and threaten submissions early, but Moreno's ability to deny hooks, reverse positions, and even threaten from top should prevent prolonged control.

Taira's lone loss came via decision to Brandon Royval, who stuffed the grappling and peppered him with strikes for 15 minutes. Moreno brings similar defensive wrestling with superior striking volume and championship composure. Expect the Mexican to weather early danger, keep exchanges clean, and edge competitive rounds with output and damage.

Prediction: Brandon Moreno to win (+104 via FanDuel)

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira best bet

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Moreno by decision (+160 via FanDuel)

Moreno's path to victory runs directly through the judges' scorecards, making the decision prop an outstanding value. He's never been finished in the UFC and has gone to 14 career decisions, demonstrating elite durability against the division's most dangerous finishers. His recent performances against Albazi and Erceg showed calculated, point-fighting approaches designed to bank rounds rather than hunt stoppages.

Taira's finishing rate creates the appearance of knockout danger, but his lone UFC decision loss to Royval revealed vulnerabilities when opponents survive his early grappling surges. Moreno possesses far better defensive grappling than Royval and superior striking depth to win minutes on the feet. Over three rounds, the champion's experience in managing pace and avoiding dangerous positions should keep him safe while accumulating scoring strikes.

At +160 odds (38.46% implied probability), a $10 bet returns a $16 profit. This represents significant value given Moreno's decision rate, Taira's struggles in his only UFC fight that went the distance, and the stylistic dynamics favoring a technical, point-based victory for the veteran.

I broke down Saturday's entire card in my UFC 323 predictions and best bets.

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira odds

Odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira tale of the tape

How to watch Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira: UFC 323

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Time: 10 p.m. ET (Main card), 8 p.m. ET (Prelims)
• Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
• TV: Pay-per-view (Main card), ESPN2 (Prelims)