🩸 UFC 327 Best Bets for Miami: Carlos Ulberg, Kelvin Gastelum and Cub Swanson to shine

The Ultimate Fighting Championship touches down at Kaseya Center in Miami on Saturday with a loaded fight card, including Carlos Ulberg (-102) taking on Jiri Prochazka (-125) for the promotion's vacant light-heavyweight title. 

My UFC 327 Best Bets and Predictions back Ulberg to win at those odds, and I am also taking action on Kelvin Gastelum (-278), Cub Swanson (-105), as well as an underdog play with Paulo Costa (+170). Preliminary card fights start at 5:30 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

💰 UFC 327 best bets

See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights; pick confidence based a 1-to-5-star scale.

Total wagered: 6.9. units | Max profit: 9 units

🚀 My best UFC 327 pick: Carlos Ulberg (-102) vs. Jiri Prochazka

Prochazka's style is wild and chaotic, but it leaves way too many openings for elite strikers to capitalize on. He was down two rounds in his most recent fight with Khalil Rountree before scoring a 3rd round finish once his opponent got tired, and I don't think he'll be able to rely on that here.

Ulberg is the more polished kickboxer and enters this fight on a nine-fight win streak. I expect Ulberg to fight long and maintain range before catching Prochazka clean for a knockout win once the latter becomes too eager.

🔥 More UFC 327 predictions

Check out our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this weekend's fights.

Kelvin Gastelum (-278) vs. Vicente Luque

There's not a ton of value left on the moneyline, but Gastelum is still playable at these odds and also provides an excellent parlay pick Saturday. The former "Ultimate Fighter" champion has always been undersized at middleweight and forced to fight much larger opponents.

Luque is a career welterweight who is moving up to 185 pounds for the first time and is looking near to retirement after a 2-5 stretch over his last seven fights. Both men are 34 years old, but the Brazilian Luque is the one who's had one too many wars in the cage and is damaged goods. Gastelum will capitalize on this spot and send his opponent packing. 

Cub Swanson (-105) vs. Nate Landwehr

Landwehr is highly entertaining, but entirely too inconsistent. In ten UFC appearances, he's gone just 5-5 with the promotion and has been knocked out in four of those five losses. The Tennessee native has made a career out of brawling and being tough, but now, having lost back-to-back fights by knockout, that style and approach won't work anymore.

Swanson is a savvy veteran who knows how to navigate a firefight and will eventually clip his man and earn his 19th career stoppage victory.

Paulo Costa by Decision (+500) vs. Azamat Murzakanov

Costa looked to regain his confidence in his last fight, cruising to a decision win over Russian striker Roman Kopylov. He's now tasked with taking on another Russian striking specialist in Murzakanov, and it's a spot he appears to be ready to handle.

The 36-year-old power puncher is entirely too reliant on the knockout and tends to be low volume otherwise. Costa, meanwhile, shows next to no signs of having durability issues, going to decision in six of his last seven fights overall. Costa has the goods to win this fight, but with no finishes dating back to 2018, chasing the decision prop is the way to go.

📝 UFC 327: Ulberg vs. Prochazka fight card

• Carlos Ulberg vs. Jiri Prochazka, light-heavyweight title fight
• Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov, light-heavyweight
• Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit, heavyweight
• Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker, light-heavyweight
• Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr, featherweight
• Aaron Pico vs. Patricio Pitbull, featherweight
• Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown, welterweight
• Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics, lightweight
• Tatiana Suarez vs. Lupita Godinez, strawweight
• Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos, lightweight
• Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque, middleweight
• Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado, welterweight

💡 How I'm betting UFC 327

UFC 327 looks to be a pretty reliable card from a betting perspective, and I'll be approaching it a lot more aggressively than an average Fight Night event. Every fighter we are picking against this week has a glaring hole in their game that we hope to exploit.

Prochazka has a leaky defense, and Ulberg should take advantage. Luque is in poor form and looks to have regressed across the board skill-wise. Landwehr likewise doesn't seem to be able to take a clean punch anymore, and Murzakanov is a slow, plodding, power puncher who's gonna fall behind the strike count and get outworked.  Nothing in this game is easy, but if the four fighters we're backing stick to the game plan, we'll be in for a treat.

📺 How to watch UFC 327

• Date: Saturday, April 11
• Time: 5:30 p.m. ET (early prelims), 7 p.m. ET (prelims), 9 p.m ET (main card)
• Location: Kaseya Center (Miami)
• Streaming: Paramount+