🩸 UFC 326 Predictions & Best Bets Tonight: Holloway, Fernandez & Turcios Top Picks
The UFC returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and I’m breaking it down with my UFC 326 predictions and best bets tonight. In the main event, Max Holloway (-225) takes on Charles Oliveira (+185), and I’m backing the betting favorite to win again in this highly anticipated rematch.
I’ve analyzed the UFC 326 odds to craft my expert picks, which highlight Luke Fernandez and Michael Johnson, along with an underdog play on Ricky Turcios. The full card streams live on Paramount+, starting with the early prelims at 5 p.m. ET, prelims at 7 p.m. ET, and the main card at 9 p.m. ET. CBS will also televise select fights during a two-hour block between the end of the prelims and the start of the main card.
💰 UFC 326 best bets
See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights; pick confidence based a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Best bet | Odds | Confidence | Bet size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway moneyline | -225 via Caesars | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 5u -> 2.2u |
| Luke Fernandez moneyline | -225 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 2.2u -> 1u |
| Michael Johnson moneyline | -120 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐ | 1.2u -> 1u |
| Ricky Turcios by decision | +300 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 0.5u -> 1.5u |
Total wagered: 8.9 units | Max profit: 5.7 units
🚀 My best UFC 326 pick: Max Holloway moneyline (-225) vs. Charles Oliveira
Holloway and Oliveira are both first ballot, Hall of Fame fighters, but with very contrasting styles. And those styles will result in the BMF champion taking over and finishing Oliveira late.
Oliveira is the all-time UFC leader in finishes, while Holloway is the all-time leader in significant strikes landed. Essentially, Oliveira has two rounds to try and get Holloway out of there, or he’s gonna drown under the constant barrage of volume striking. In 36 UFC appearances, Oliveira has never landed more than 88 significant strikes in a fight, while Holloway has landed 100+ on 17 separate occasions.
🩸 BMF
Want to dig deeper into the odds surrounding tonight's main event? Andrew Reid breaks down the BMF title fight further in his Holloway vs. Oliveira BMF title fight odds
🔥 More UFC 326 predictions
Check out our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this weekend's fights.
Luke Fernandez moneyline (-225) vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Luke Fernandez isn’t your average debuting UFC fighter. His wrestling credentials and stellar all-around MMA skills should get the job done.
After a stellar high school career, he spent four years at Elizabethtown College. Then he learned boxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, where he currently holds a brown belt under UFC veteran Dante Rivera. After starting his pro career a perfect 6-0 with five wins by knockout, he now has a golden opportunity to put himself on the map in a big way.
You could also chase the TKO prop at -115 on FanDuel, as his opponent, Rodolfo Bellato, has been knocked down or knocked out five times in his career and seems to struggle with durability issues. A $10 dollar bet on the -225 moneyline returns $4.45 while the same bet on the TKO prop pays $8.70.
Michael Johnson moneyline (-120) vs. Drew Dober
After being written off a couple of years back due to his age, Michael Johnson has stormed back in a big way, winning three straight fights, including a massive score as a +550 betting underdog in his most recent outing. As long as he keeps his feet moving, he should dance circles around opponent Drew Dober for the win.
An 18-year veteran of the sport, Johnson still shows the same flashes of brilliance that he’s made a career out of. The now 39-year-old has shared the cage with MMA legends Khabib Nurmagomedov, Justin Gaethje, and even owns a first-round knockout win over former champion Dustin Poirier. At -120 on the moneyline, he has an implied win probability of 55%, but I see him winning this matchup closer to 65% of the time. That's value.
Ricky Turcios by decision (+300) vs. Alberto Montes
Ricky Turcios is flying under the radar this weekend, and that’s good news for us. The winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” season 29, Turcios has proven to be a very tricky fighter to deal with, blending high-volume kicking with solid scrambling. His opponent, Alberto Montes, has competed just three times in the last five years and appears to be a one-trick pony, relying on submission attempts from the front headlock position. Once those fail to materialize, expect Turcios’ superior work rate to take over.
His moneyline odds are +160, implying a win probability of just 39%. But as a proven point style fighter, chasing the +300 for a decision win feels right. A $10 bet will win you back $30, giving you some nice value to go with some of the favourites we're playing.
📝 UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 fight card
- Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira, lightweight
- Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder, middleweight
- Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Rob Font, bantamweight
- Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober, lightweight
- Gregory Rodrigues vs. Bruno Ferreira, middleweight
- Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Xiao, bantamweight
- Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage, middleweight
- Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes, featherweight
- Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, flyweight
- Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar, flyweight
- Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay, light heavyweight
- Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato, light heavyweight
💡 How I'm betting UFC 326
UFC 326 promises to deliver exciting matchups, but from a betting standpoint, it features a lot of inconsistent and untrustworthy fighters.
That's why I’ve decided to focus my betting and units on some of the card's veterans who I believe are capable of sticking to the proper game plan and won’t get carried away under the bright lights of a big show. Holloway is a proven competitor who already has a win over Oliveira; Fernandez is undefeated and well-rounded for the division; Johnson has the style to negate Dober’s power punching; and Ricky Turcios provides a lot of value, considering it’s closer to a 50/50 fight.
As long as everyone keeps it simple, they should be leaving the arena with their hands raised, and we should be cashing our tickets at the betting window.
🤑 Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira betting splits
Here are the betting splits for Holloway vs. Oliveira (h/t BetMGM):
| Fighter | Current odds | % of bets 🎟️ | % of handle 💰 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | -220 | 28% | 41% |
| Charles Oliveira | +180 | 72% | 59% |
📈 UFC 326 betting insights
Here are some betting insights before the fights begin from BetMGM.
Most-bet fighters to win
- Charles Oliveira (+180)
- Max Holloway (-220)
- Cody Garbrandt (+140)
- Drew Dober (-120)
- Brunno Ferreira (+145)
Most-bet props
- Charles Oliveira by submission (+300)
- Max Holloway by KO/TKO or DQ (+150)
- Luke Fernandez by submission (+1400)
- Charles Oliveira by decision/technical decision (+1200)
- Cody Durden by decision/technical decision (+450)
📺 How to watch UFC 326
- Date: Saturday, March 7
- Time: 5 p.m. ET (early prelims), 7 p.m. ET (prelims), 9 p.m. ET (main card)
- Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
- Streaming: Paramount+
- TV: CBS (select fights from 8 p.m. ET to 10 p.m. ET)
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