Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds Tonight: UFC 315

Belal Muhammad makes his first UFC welterweight title defense on Canadian soil this Saturday, taking on Jack Della Maddalena in the main event of UFC 315 at Montreal’s Bell Centre.

Just hours before these two step inside the cage, we’re breaking down our Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena prediction as part of our UFC picks. Muhammad finally captured UFC gold at UFC 304 last July, earning a unanimous decision over Leon Edwards. That win marked his 10th straight victory and pushed his professional record to an impressive 24-3.

📈 UFC 315 betting action for Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

According to BetMGM, Muhammad by decision/tech decision (-115), Della Maddalena by KO/TKO (+275), and Muhammad by KO/TKO or DQ (+700) are the three most bet tickets among UFC 315 props. Shevchenko by decision/tech decision (+200) and Jasudavicius by decision/tech decision (+125) round out the top five most bet props for UFC 315.

🥊 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena prediction & fight preview

I’ve picked against Muhammad on several occasions, only to see him grind out victory after victory, and that changes now, however reluctantly.

Rarely one to dazzle with his mitts or even on the mat, Muhammad owes his 10 straight wins to his tireless work rate. The reigning champ lands a solid 4.39 significant strikes per minute and has scored multiple takedowns in six of his 10 straight wins, and I expect him to give Della Maddalena the usual treatment come fight night. 

A lethal striker and prolific finisher, the challenger has spent most of his Octagon time on his feet, but Muhammad has made a career of making the opposition look listless. He’ll have to tempt fate by striking his way into his takedowns, but Muhammad should slow the fight down sooner rather than later, make this one a grind, and secure his first successful title defense with another patented showing.

Our best sports betting sites also seem to have turned a corner on Muhammad, as the champ entered fight week as the betting favorite. FanDuel lists a straight-up W for Muhammad at -188, DraftKings at -185, with BetMGM leading our top sportsbooks ever so slightly at -182.

✅ Prediction: Muhmmad to win (-182 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 64.5%

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💰 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena best bet

Simply put, Muhammad is a decision machine, and there’s little reason to think we won’t see more of the same from him at UFC 315.

The Chicago native has earned eight of his 10 straight wins and 18 of 24 on points, and since he’s sharing the cage with a merciless bruiser in Della Maddalena, it’s back to the ol’ clinch, takedowns, and positional control for the champ. In short, he’ll likely eat a few zingers for his efforts, but Muhammad brings the belt home with another takedown-heavy performance that will see him chew the clock and chip away at Della Maddalena on the mat.

Our best sports betting apps offer lines on another Muhammad decision accordingly, with DraftKings and BetMGM listing his preferred method of victory at -115 as of early Saturday morning. That said, FanDuel gets the nod here, with Muhammad’s 19th career win on points available at a tempting -105.

✅ Best bet: Muhammad by decision (-105 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 51.2%

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📊 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena odds

Odds via BetMGM as of Saturday.

Bettors will find respectable value in moneyline odds for the champ, and even more in a victory on points, while those siding with the underdog should consider a KO/TKO victory for Della Maddalena, who’s dispatched 12 of 17 via strikes.

🆚 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena tale of the tape

📡 How to watch Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena: UFC 315

📅 Saturday, May 10
🕗 10 p.m. ET
📍 Bell Centre (Montreal)
📺 PPV | 🛜 ESPN+

🔮 UFC 315 expert picks

• UFC 315 best bets
• Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot prediction
• Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena

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