Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Prediction & Odds: Who Will Win UFC 323 Las Vegas?

Our Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van prediction has the champion successfully defending his flyweight belt in their UFC 323 co-main event on Saturday night. Pantoja is a -250 betting favorite to win against Van (+200) when the title fight begins at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view, with prelims at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

This championship bout marks Pantoja's fifth title defense since capturing the belt in July 2023, an extraordinary run that's seen him dominate every challenger. Van, the first UFC fighter born in the 2000s to compete for a title, brings explosive youth and unprecedented volume to challenge the 35-year-old champion. The stylistic clash between Pantoja's suffocating grappling and Van's relentless striking pace sets up one of the most intriguing flyweight matchups of the year.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van predictions: UFC 323

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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van fight preview

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This flyweight title clash pits Pantoja's championship experience against Van's explosive youth. The champion blends elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu with improving striking and an iron chin that's never been cracked. Van lands 8.86 significant strikes per minute - the highest rate in the division - but absorbs over 6 per minute, revealing defensive vulnerabilities.

Pantoja needs to survive early pressure, close distance, and drag this into grappling exchanges, where his 2.80 takedowns per 15 minutes and devastating submission game take over. Van's limited defensive grappling experience could prove catastrophic once the champion secures back control.

Van must keep this standing and overwhelm Pantoja with volume before the grappling takes hold. His 80% takedown defense offers hope, but defending relentless chain wrestling over 25 minutes is far different than handling three-round fights.

Expect Van to land early, but once Pantoja times his entries and secures clinch positions, the experience gap becomes glaring. The champion's ability to transition from standing grappling to mat control should break down Van's resistance in the championship rounds.

Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja to win (-250 via bet365)

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van best bet

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Pantoja by submission (+145 via bet365)

While Pantoja's moneyline at -250 offers reasonable value, his submission method provides significantly better returns. The Brazilian has finished 12 of 30 career victories by submission, including recent rear-naked choke wins over Kai Kara-France and Kai Asakura.

Van's grappling remains his clearest weakness. His striking-first mentality creates the exact scrambles Pantoja thrives in. Once the champion secures back control, Van lacks the defensive jiu-jitsu to survive the suffocating top game that's broken multiple elite opponents.

At +145 odds (40.82% implied probability), a $10 bet returns $14.50 of profit. This represents excellent value on Pantoja finding his signature finish against an overmatched grappler pushed into title contention ahead of schedule.

I broke down Saturday's other biggest matches in my UFC 323 predictions and best bets.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van odds

Odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van tale of the tape

How to watch Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van: UFC 323

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Time: 10 p.m. ET (Main card), 8 p.m. ET (Prelims)
• Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
• TV: Pay-per-view (Main card), ESPN2 (Prelims)