⚽ Wolves vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Lineups, Picks & Odds for Today's Premier League Match
Wolverhampton welcomes Aston Villa to Molineux today for a West Midlands derby. My Wolves vs. Aston Villa prediction and Premier League best bets will highlight why the superior quality of the visitors will emerge on top as they look to keep their dreams of European play next season at the forefront.
Aston Villa is a -115 moneyline betting favorite, which is no shock given that Wolves are at the bottom of the table with just one win and seven draws through 28 games. The action from Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton gets underway at 3 p.m. ET, airing on USA Network.
⚽ Wolves vs. Aston Villa predictions
See our experts' soccer picks based on the latest Premier League odds.
| Predictions | Best odds | Bet size | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa moneyline | -115 via DraftKings | 1 unit -> 0.87 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 2.5 | +100 via bet365 | .5 units -> 0.5 units | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Andre Over 2 fouls committed | +100 via bet365 | 1 unit -> 1 unit | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Morgan Rogers anytime goal scorer or assist | +110 via DraftKings | 0.25 unit -> 0.275 units | ⭐⭐⭐ |
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💰 Wolves vs. Aston Villa best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Aston Villa moneyline (-115)
Aston Villa will present a tactical nightmare for Wolverhampton. Unai Emery's men will use a "box midfield" that sees his wide players cross in to work with Douglas Luiz and Onana, creating a "box overload." Wolves' midfield and defense are lacking, which will lead to chances for the visitors.
There's also a huge discrepancy in what each side will offer in the second half. Wolves allows a 44% of their goals over the final third of the game, while Aston Villa scores 45% of its goals in the same time frame. It's a recipe for disaster for the hosts.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2, Wolverhampton 0
🔥 Best Wolves vs. Aston Villa prop bet
Andre 2+ fouls committed (+100)
Andre will have his hands full trying to deal with the box midfield. He's an aggressive player who has been dinged for two or more fouls four times in his last five games, and he's picked up 12 yellows on the season.
He's going to spend his day tracking Morgan Rogers as he moves into pockets of space, trying to disrupt his ability to feed Ollie Watkins; when he's not busy with Rogers, he'll be tasked with physical battles against Onana and closing down Luiz. It's going to be a long afternoon. For what it's worth, last time he had a long afternoon vs. Villa, he picked up three fouls.
And he'll have to do it without Ladislav Krejci, as the Wolves' defensive anchor is suspended for the match after picking up two yellows last week.
🙌 Best Wolves vs. Aston Villa goal-scorer prediction
Morgan Rogers, midfielder, anytime goal scorer or assist (+110)
As an attacking midfielder, Rogers has become Villa's offensive engine. He's tied with Ollie Watkins for first on the club with eight goals, and his five assists lead the way as well.
Against a backline that will be without Krejci, and a midfield that could be prone to picking up early yellows and needs to be careful, Rogers should be able to find his way to the scoresheet today. While he failed to do so in the reverse fixture, he did get off three shots with one on target.
The Wolves allow more than 2.1 goals per game on average at Molineux, and if Villa can net 2, I like Rogers' chances of contributing with a goal or an assist - he has one of each over his last five across all competitions.
🚀 Wolves vs. Aston Villa same-game parlay
Starting with the Aston Villa moneyline, a price that is incredibly fair for a team vying for Europe visiting a team with just one win and three draws across 14 home games. The Under 2.5 is also an attractive option, given the hosts average less than a goal per game at home and have been held scoreless in five of their last eight overall, and Villa has scored just one (or been blanked) in five straight. Andre to record 2+ fouls fits into the whole game picture, given we expect Villa to dominate possession and work through the midfield.
💵 Wolves vs. Aston Villa SGP picks
- Aston Villa moneyline (-125)
- Under 2.5 goals (+100)
- Andre to commit 2+ fouls (+100)
Best odds: +800 via bet365 (0.2 units -> 1.6 units)
⚖️ How I'm handicapping Wolves vs. Aston Villa
This price is incredibly fair for a top-four team visiting the absolute bottom of the table. I'm biggest on the Villa moneyline, and I think you probably want to pounce on it earlier rather than later. This price has already moved from -110 yesterday to as long as -125 today, and that's likely to get longer. I'm holding off if it reaches the -135 range.
We're factoring in both sides' recent form, the overall gap in quality between not just the starters but also the subs that are likely to come on.
One thing to consider - for a standalone wager, but not in the SGP (as it lowers the value) - is that you can play "Both teams to score? No" for the same price as Under 2.5 goals. That might be a consideration if you have reason to believe we're going to see an onslaught from Villa.
Wolves vs. Aston Villa key stats
| Wolves | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 18 | 38 |
| Goals against | 51 | 28 |
| Home record / Away Record | 1-3-10 | 6-4-3 |
| Both Teams to Score at Home/Away | 50% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals at Home/Away | 57% | 46% |
📊 Wolves vs. Aston Villa odds
We've already seen this line extend from -110 yesterday to as long as -125 today at the best sports betting sites, and we're likely to see more public money come in on the visitors. There's no reason to believe that folks are going to suddenly back a Wolves side that is entrenched firmly at the bottom of the table.
With that in mind, it wouldn't be shocking to see the line continue to move throughout the day in Villa's direction. I'll be staying away if it pushes past -135, given Villa has only scored one (or been blanked) in five straight games, so the risk of the draw certainly starts to creep into the picture.
🆚 Wolves vs. Aston Villa confirmed lineups
Here are Friday's confirmed lineups for Wolves vs. Aston Villa:
| Wolves (3-4-2-1) | Aston Villa (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Jose Sa (GK) | Martinez (GK) |
| Mosquera | Cash |
| Santiago Bueno | Konsa |
| Toti | Pau |
| Tchatchoua | Digne |
| Joao Gomes | Onana |
| Andre | Douglas Luiz |
| Hugo Bueno | Sancho |
| Bellegarde | Rogers |
| Mane | Buendia |
| Armstrong | Watkins |
📈 Wolves vs. Aston Villa betting trends
| Wolves | Statistic | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7-20 | Season record | 15-6-6 |
| Aston Villa 1 - Wolves 0 | Reverse fixture | Nov. 30, 2025 |
| LLDDL | Last 5 games (Premier League) | WLDWD |
| Crystal Palace 1 - Wolves 0 (Feb. 22) | Previous result | Aston Villa 1 - Leeds 1 (Feb. 21) |
| Wolves have conceded the first goal in 22 games this season | Key stat | 11 of Villa's EPL wins have come by exactly one goal |
These trends and recent results are about in line with what we've seen from both teams all season. The Wolves have been trying to stave off being historically the worst team in Premier League history since the start of the season, and outside the first handful of games, Villa has been a solid contender to find its way to Champions League play next year.
Wolves will importantly be without Ladislav Krejci due to suspension, while Villa is missing a number of key pieces from the reverse picture including John McGinn (knee), Boubacar Kamara (knee), and Youri Tielemans (ankle).
🌤️ Wolves vs. Aston Villa weather
The weather shouldn't have a major impact on tonight's proceedings. Temperatures will be pretty standard for this time of year in Wolverhampton, around the mid-40s. While it's going to be a rainy evening at Molineux, the saving grace for Wolves vs. Aston Villa is that there isn't much wind, with it expected to register at under 10 mph.
📺 How to watch Wolves vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Friday, Feb. 27
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Molineux Stadium (Wolverhampton, England)
- TV: USA Network
❓ Wolves vs. Aston Villa FAQ
Who is favored to win Wolves vs. Aston Villa?
Aston Villa is a -115 moneyline betting favorite to win Wolves vs. Aston Villa today.
Who is the best Wolves vs. Aston Villa bet?
My best bets for Wolves vs. Aston Villa include the Aston Villa moneyline and Andre to commit 2+ fouls
Where to watch Wolves vs. Aston Villa in the US and Canada?
You can watch Wolves vs. Aston Villa on USA Network in the United States, and stream the game on Fubo in Canada.
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