Brazil vs. USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women's Soccer, Aug. 10
Brazil enter Saturday's final against the USA as fierce believers that the third time's a charm. After an unconvincing start to the tournament, Brazil prevailed through inconsistency and overcame the odds to meet the USA in the Olympic final for a third time.
The Marta-led Brazilians lost in the final to the USA in 2004 and 2008, with both matches requiring extra time. A third and final opportunity awaits in Paris (11 a.m. ET) for the soon-to-be-retired Marta, with the legendary trailblazer set to return after serving a two-match ban.
While the Brazilian Olympic 2024 story thus far reads like the first three-quarters of a fairytale, they have a daunting peak to ascend when they face the four-time champion and undeniable best team of the tournament thus far.
Our Brazil vs. USA odds, picks, and predictions focus on the game's outcome while highlighting the most likely goal scorer.
The Americans, who have won all five tournament matches by an 11-2 combined score, are the favorites across our best sports betting sites to win their first gold medal since 2012 and, at least in this instance, disprove the third time's a charm theory.
Brazil vs. USA predictions for Saturday
Brazil vs. USA odds via our best soccer betting sites; soccer picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Final score: USA 2 - Brazil 0 (+800) ⭐⭐⭐
- Sophia Smith anytime goal scorer (+220) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Best bet: USA ML and Under 3.5 goals (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Brazil vs. USA score prediction
USA 2 vs. Brazil 0
This prediction is based on the USA relocating their shooting boots. They were unstoppable in attack in the group stage, scoring nine goals, six of which were against accomplished opponents Germany and Australia.
They have enough attacking talent to trouble a Brazilian side that has allowed two goals in three of the last four games. While Brazil displayed an offensive masterclass against Spain in the semifinal, scoring four goals, they netted only three times in the previous four games.
With Sophia Smith, Trinity Rodman, and Mallory Swanson in rich goal-scoring form, I'm drawn to the Americans scoring the opener and bagging an insurance marker when Brazil is forced to open up and press for the equalizer.
If it hits, you'll earn an $80 profit on a $10 wager.
Odds: +800 | Implied probability: 11.11%
Brazil vs. USA anytime goal scorer prediction
Sophia Smith, USA
Smith scored the winner in extra time against Germany in the semifinal and has been superb throughout. The 23-year-old has three goals in the 2024 Olympics and, maybe more importantly, has at least one shot on target in all five matches.
An undeniable force against the Germans, Smith had seven shot attempts, four of which hit the target. I like her carrying that momentum into the final. The +220 odds will yield a $22 profit on a $10 wager if Smith scores her fourth goal before extra time.
Odds: +220 | Implied probability: 31.25%
Brazil vs. USA best bet
USA ML and Under 3.5 goals
Both USA knockout matches required extra time, and the previous two gold-medal meetings between the Americans and Brazil also went beyond the initial 90 minutes. While I'm not taking anything away from Brazil's awe-inspiring path to the final, I feel the USA will finally find their scoring boots before the full-time whistle.
Head coach Emma Hayes has found a way to solidify her defense after a shaky group state. The USA kept clean sheets against Japan and Germany en route to the final, and I can't see Brazil letting loose offensively in two straight contests.
Also, Brazil have a Marta conundrum to contend with. Does head coach Arthur Elias start the 38-year-old after his team played exceptionally without her against France and Spain?
With the momentum and form the USA are exhibiting, I don't think it will matter either way. At +140, you'll earn a $14 profit on a $10 bet if it hits.
Odds: +140 | Implied probability: 31.25%
Brazil vs. USA odds & game info
| Brazil | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +330 | -105 |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 (+150) | Under 2.5 (-190) |
| Spread | +0.5 (-120) | -0.5 (-115) |
- When: Saturday, Aug. 10
- Time: 11 a.m. ET
- Where: Parcs des Princes (Paris)
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock (streaming)
- Favorite: USA (-105)
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