⚽ Leeds vs. Manchester City Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Premier League Match

It's probably a higher-stakes showdown than most would expect at this time of year, when Leeds United hosts Manchester City on Saturday. My best Leeds vs. Manchester City prediction breaks through the noise to identify my Premier League best bets. 

With the title still in sight for Man City, and relegation not out of the question for Leeds, plenty is on the line. Manchester City is a pretty heavy -165 moneyline betting favorite ahead of kickoff at 12:30 p.m. ET at Elland Road in Leeds, England, airing on NBC.

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⚽ Leeds vs. Manchester City predictions

See our experts' soccer picks based on the latest Premier League odds.

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💰 Leeds vs. Manchester City best bet

Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.

Over 2.5 goals (-148)

City has assembled an absolute beast of an attack, led by Erling Haaland. Daniel Farke's side will have issues with City, which has recently deployed a 4-1-3-2.

Leeds typically funnels attacks to the outside, and City comes through narrow. That's going to result in plenty of opportunities for the visitors, who have scored at least two goals in eight straight across all competitions. 

City gives up more than a goal per game away from home (16 in 13 games) and has seen four of their last six across all competitions hit this number.

Score prediction: Leeds 2, Manchester City 2

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🔥 Best Leeds vs. Manchester City prop bet

Nico O'Reilly 1+ shots on target (+100)

It seemed to happen very suddenly, but Nico O'Reilly very quickly evolved from a versatile left-back to a secret weapon in City's potent offense. At 6-foot-4, the England national brings a unique physical profile and is prone to making unchecked runs into the box. With Rodri anchoring the midfield, O'Reilly seems to have been granted a free-pass to roam forward into the attack. 

With defenses having to focus on Haaland and Antoine Semenyo (and whoever else City could field on any given week), O'Reilly has been firing on all cylinders the last two Premier League games, firing seven shots in total and catching the target three times (resulting in three goals). For good measure, he hit the target in the fourth round proper of the FA Cup between those two games, but failed to score.

Expect that confidence to carry forward on Saturday.

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🙌 Best Leeds vs. Manchester City goal-scorer prediction

Erling Haaland, Man City, anytime goal scorer or assist (-170)

Haaland came hot out of the gates, scoring in eight of the first 10 Matchweeks. That slowed down, but suddenly, he's a top facilitator, too.

Goals have been a little more scarce recently (with two in the last six games), but Haaland has added three assists in his last four Premier League games. It's a bit of a game of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" for Leeds. If they sit back, Haaland is the kind of striker who only needs half a chance to make you suffer. If they play a high line and try to catch City on counterattacks, his speed makes him a threat to get behind the defense. 

Haaland has fired at least two shots in 11 of his last 12 games, and he has goal contributions in five of his last six across all competitions.

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🚀 Leeds vs. Manchester City same-game parlay

We're going to shy away from the moneyline play here, instead looking to just capitalize on offense rather than pick a side in a game that is hard to handicap once you get past the surface. The Over 2.5 play, coupled with offensive contributions from Nico O'Reilly and Erling Haaland, works well hand-in-hand, provided City continues to roll. It's not the biggest SGP, but you have to dig deep to find reasonable value in Man City games.

💵 Leeds vs. Manchester City SGP picks

• Over 2.5 goals (-148)
• Erling Haaland anytime goal scorer or assist (-170)
• Nico O'Reilly Over 0.5 shots on target (+115)

Best odds: +305 via FanDuel (0.2 units -> 0.61 units)

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⚖️ How I'm handicapping Leeds vs. Manchester City

I'm focusing on the offensive output of these squads instead of looking at the outcome, as I'm a little hesitant to back City on the road, where their form hasn't been great. There seems to be plenty of ways for offense-related props to come through, so that's the look I'm giving.

City's recent form on the road hasn't been so hot in 2026: they snuck out a 2-1 victory over Liverpool in their last trip from the Etihad, but that was capped with a 93rd-minute penalty. They drew Tottenham 2-2 in their only other road game in February across all comps. Headed back to January, they lost to Bodo/Glimt in a UCL game, and were blanked 2-0 in a Manchester derby days prior. Their lone road win of the calendar year was a 2-0 defeat of Newcastle in a Carabao Cup tie. On New Year's Day, they posted a nil-nil draw at the Stadium of Light against Sunderland. Hard to be excited about them winning against Leeds, but hard to back Leeds with much confidence either.

Leeds vs. Manchester City key stats

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📊 Leeds vs. Manchester City odds

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites that is still offering what I see as a fair price on City, with the moneyline coming in at -155. The rest of the market is trading at -165 or longer, and I expect that to continue to move toward City as we get toward kickoff, just given their popularity. No matter what happens, I don't see value on Leeds with the outright win, but if you want to dabble in the moneyline the tie price could improve. Regardless, only a quarter of a unit at most should be invested into such a difficult proposition. 

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🆚 Leeds vs. Manchester City projected lineups

Here are Saturday's projected lineups for Leeds vs. Manchester City; lineups subject to change:

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📈 Leeds vs. Manchester City betting trends

After a bit of a surprising start to the season, Leeds finds itself now looking to hold off relegation challengers over the final stretch of the season. That said, a trip to Elland Road is never an easy one, and City has had it's share of road struggles. Injuries won't be a major issue for the hosts, who will get Gabriel Gudmundsson back after he was taken off at half-time last time out. 

City has been making due with a few injury situations for a number of weeks. The squad will likely be without Jeremy Doku again, although there is a small chance he could return. Gvardiol is set to miss again, although the defense may get a boost if Max Alleyne is able to return. The young defender has 21 starts in 24 games this season, and would be a boost to the City backline if able to return.

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🌤️ Leeds vs. Manchester City weather

Leeds vs. Manchester City looks like it'll happen on a slick Elland Road from a day of rain, which should slow down as the game progresses. Temperatures will be in the low 40s, with almost no wind. Typical day in the English winter.

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📺 How to watch Leeds vs. Manchester City

• Date: Saturday, Feb. 28
• Kickoff: 2 p.m. ET
• Location: Elland Road (Leeds, England)
• TV: NBC

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❓ Leeds vs. Manchester City FAQ

Who is favored to win Leeds vs. Manchester City?

Manchester City is the favorite to win Leeds vs. Manchester City, with the visiting Manchester City listed as a -165 moneyline betting favorite.

Who is the best Leeds vs. Manchester City bet?

My best bet for Leeds vs. Manchester City bet is Over 2.5 goals (-148).

Where to watch Leeds vs. Manchester City in the US and Canada?

You can watch Leeds vs. Manchester City on NBC (United States), and stream on Fubo (Canada).