Argentina vs. Croatia Odds, Picks, Predictions: First Spot in World Cup Final on the Line

With a spot in the World Cup Final up for grabs, Argentina and Croatia will square off on Tuesday afternoon. Read on for our Argentina-Croatia pick and prediction.

Anthony Wootton

Last updated: December 13, 2022 4:21 AM EST • 4 min read

The first of two World Cup Semifinal matches will be played Tuesday afternoon as Croatia collides with one of the pre-tournament favorites in Argentina. Check out below for our Argentina-Croatia World Cup pick and prediction.

Argentina have never lost a World Cup semifinal, and they’re aiming to reach their sixth final, only Germany have made the showpiece on more occasions with eight appearances. Croatia beat Argentina the last time these two nations met at the World Cup, winning 3-0 at Russia in 2018. These countries have played each other twice at the tournament, both winning one each. They’ve never faced one another in the knockout stages.

Lionel Messi has both scored and assisted a goal in three different World Cup matches, including two at this year's tournament against Mexico and Netherlands. Ivan Perisic needs one more goal to become Croatia’s outright all-time top World Cup scorer. He is currently tied with Davor Suker for six goals at the finals.

Seven of the last nine World Cup semifinals between a South American and a European nation have seen the South American side progress; the most recent was Argentina eliminating Netherlands on penalties in 2014.

Here is our best Argentina vs. Croatia World Cup semifinal pick (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Cup best bets.

Argentina vs. Croatia Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2 p.m. ET
TV: Fox, Telemundo
Location: Lusail Iconic Stadium, Lusail, Qatar
Weather: 70 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 3 mph winds

Argentina vs. Croatia Odds Analysis

Argentina are the clear favorites in this game. They have one of the greatest players on the planet leading their team, but Croatia have a Ballon d’Or winner of their own. Real Madrid’s Luka Modric has made the most World Cup appearances (17) and most appearances at major tournaments (30) for Croatia. The best moneyline price for the Europeans is +390 at FanDuel.

The line is at 0.5, but you’re getting better odds straight up for Argentina than the handicap. DraftKings is offering the South Americans at -115 ATS, which is the best price available. Laying the goal in Croatia’s favor, the best price is also via DraftKings at -105.

The books aren’t expecting goals. The total is at 2.5, and the best odds are via Caesars at +150 for the Over. FanDuel has the Over at +146, others price it at +145. The best value for Under is via FanDuel at -178.

Argentina vs. Croatia Pick

Both teams to score (+135 via PointsBet) ★★★★★

A place in the World Cup final is at stake, so both teams will be giving everything to get there. For Messi, this tournament is his last shot to claim soccer's biggest prize. Croatia will want to right the wrongs of the 2018 final in Russia.

Croatia have never failed to score in their 10 World Cup knockout stage matches. However, they've also conceded at least once in each of their last eight. Argentina have scored first in all five World Cup matches this year, although they failed to win after going two goals ahead in a World Cup match for the first time in their 2-2 draw with the Netherlands.

Both sides have world-class talent and pose serious threats going forward. They’ve also been exposed at the back at times during this tournament, therefore goals are likely from each team.

Argentina vs. Croatia Best Odds

PointsBet (+135)

BetMGM	Caesars	DraftKings	FanDuel	PointsBet
+125	+127	+115	+116	+135

There’s a big swing in value, so be sure to shop for this price. The play for this match offers a better chance of winning than choosing one side to beat the other. As well as this tournament being Messi’s World Cup swansong, it’s also likely to be Modric’s last one. The 37-year-old pipped the Argentine and Cristiano Ronaldo for the sport’s biggest individual accolade, the Ballon d’Or, in 2018. He’s a player for the big stage and will look to outshine his former Clasico rival in this one.

Despite being on the verge of reaching consecutive finals, Croatia haven't scored first in any of their last nine World Cup games, since a 2-1 win over Iceland in the 2018 group stages. This is the furthest into the competition any side has got without opening the scoring in any of their matches. Argentina have won just one of their last seven World Cup games against European sides (D3 L3), beating Poland 2-0 in the group stages this year. However, two of those three draws have resulted in penalty shootout victories. The result could go either way, so back a goal from both teams.

Where to Bet on Argentina vs. Croatia

Here are our best World Cup Betting Sites:

Argentina vs. Croatia picks made 12/12/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Anthony Wootton

Anthony Wootton has worked in the sports industry for more than 20 years. He’s reported on Premier League games for BBC radio and continues to cover the league, as well as other high-profile soccer competitions such as the UEFA Champions League. He is a founding member of the NFL Writers Network with NFL Europe, having covered every NFL London game since 2014 and multiple Super Bowls. Anthony has also reported on the Germany games in Munich and Frankfurt. His book, "The Greatest American Football Story That Has Never Been Told", has been an Amazon bestseller for American Football and Sports History publications. He is a member of the Professional Football Researchers Association. Anthony started writing for betting companies in 2018, working with some of the world’s largest gambling sites. He is an avid bettor on soccer and football, using multiple apps as he targets the best value on props and plays. Anthony is the host of the "TransAtlantic Sports Show" podcast and runs a weekly parlay feature on his YouTube channel throughout the NFL season. He has appeared on leading international podcasts such as the BBC World Service’s Sportshour, the Nat Coombs Show, and the Irish NFL Show. Anthony holds a bachelor’s degree in media from Sheffield Hallam University.