🏝️ Who Will Win Survivor 50? Best Odds at Prediction Markets
Another episode of Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans is in the books, and the final remaining winner is gone. Dee Valladares was voted out in a 14-person tribal council to become the first member of the jury.
That leaves 13 players heading into Episode 8: Double The Fun, Double The Demise, and we're looking at prediction markets for who will win Survivor 50. Aubry Bracco is still the overwhelming favorite to win, with her odds sitting at 77%, though her odds have tanked quite a bit since surpassing 90% in February.
📊 Who will win Survivor 50?
Following episode 7 of Survivor 50, Aubry Bracco is still a huge favorite, trading at 77 cents to win. That said, Bracco used her idol this week, leaving her vulnerable at every tribal council moving forward. Will her move ultimately curry favor with the rest of her tribe, or will the other players try to take advantage of the situation and vote one of the game's best players?
You can currently buy Bracco "yes" for 77 cents, but the value seems to be decreasing by the day. In most cases, the price in cents for the "yes" directly matches the chance an option has of being successful. However, in rare instances, there is a cent or two discrepancy.
💰️ Kalshi promo code
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
What do those percentage chances mean?
For many who are new to prediction markets, it's handy to put the Kalshi percentage chances into American odds. We do this by using an odds converter, converting the percentage chances into implied odds. Here's a snapshot of all the player's chances of winning after the premiere, along with their American odds.
| Player | Kalshi percentage chance | American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 77% | -334 |
| Cirie Fields | 14% | +614 |
| Rizo Velovic | 4% | +2400 |
| Joe Hunter | 3% | +3233 |
| Jonathan Young | <1% | +10000 |
| Coach Wade | <1% | +10000 |
| Christian Hubicki | <1% | +10000 |
| Chrissy Hofbeck | <1% | +10000 |
| Emily Flippen | <1% | +10000 |
| Ozzy Lusth | <1% | +10000 |
| Rick Devens | <1% | +10000 |
| Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick | <1% | +10000 |
| Tiffany Nicole Ervin | <1% | +10000 |
🔮 Survivor 50 prediction
Bracco is the leader here, and there are plenty of reasons for that. She has plenty of experience with three seasons under her belt (32, 34, 38), including a runner-up finish in her debut and a final five showing in her second appearance. However, at 77 cents, there's almost no value in backing her. Therefore, I'm looking to beat her.
After episode 7, I'm picking Rizo Velovic to win Survivor 50. In episode 5, Velovic survived despite all odds stacked against him, and he also managed to hold onto his idol while bonding so well with Cirie Fields that she told him about her extra vote.
Velovic is one of the most dangerous players with an idol in his hand, as he showed during Season 49 when he used it as a tool to help his alliance overcome a massive deficit. Velovic had a cool-off episode in episode 6, as Ozzy Lusth chose him to go to Exile Island with him. However, this week, he was right back in the middle of the action, calming down Coach Wade before a very impactful tribal council.
Long shot pick
Nine of the 13 remaining players have odds of less than 1% to win this game. Therefore, finding a long shot is easy; it's just about picking the right one.
Earlier in the season, I showed support for Jonathan Young, and I'm once again backing the biggest physical threat in the game. In episode 5, Young was blindsided by his closest allies, but he recovered nicely in episode 6 and dished out a nice helping of revenge.
As the swing vote, he decided to send Karthigesu home over Chrissy Hofbeck. While the move earned him some enemies, he ultimately came out on top in episode 7, as he got under Valladares' skin and ultimately put enough of a target on her back to send her home. It's still an uphill battle for the game's biggest challenge threat, but if he gets to the end, he's building a winning resume.
🏝️ Who is competing
Here is a look at the 24 players that took to the beaches of Fiji to compete in season 50, listed alphabetically.
| Contestant | Age | Appearances (season number) | Best finish | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 39 | 3 (32, 34, 38) | Runner-up season 32 | |
| 31 | 1 (46) | 6th jury member season 46 | Voted out Episode 3 | |
| 27 | 1 (46) | Runner-up season 46 | Voted out Episode 5 | |
| Rick Devens | 41 | 1 (38) | 13th jury member season 38 | |
| 51 | 3 (2, 8, 20) | Runner-up season 2 | Voted out Episode 6 | |
| Tiffany Ervin | 34 | 1 (46) | 10th jury member season 46 | |
| Cirie Fields | 54 | 4 (12, 16, 20, 34) + Australia (13) | 8th jury member season 16 | |
| Emily Flippen | 30 | 1 (45) | 5th jury member season 45 | |
| 31 | 1 (48) | Winner season 48 | Medically removed Episode 1 | |
| Chrissy Hofbeck | 54 | 1 (35) | Runner-up season 35 | |
| Christian Hubicki | 39 | 1 (37) | 7th jury member season 37 | |
| Joe Hunter | 45 | 1 (48) | Second runner-up season 48 | |
| 31 | 1 (48) | 8th jury member season 48 | Voted out Episode 6 | |
| 35 | 1 (37) | Second runner-up season 37 | Voted out Episode 5 | |
| Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick | 45 | 3 (10, 11, 20) | Runner-up season 11 | |
| 47 | 2 (1, 8) | 7th jury member season 8 | Voted out Episode 1 | |
| 31 | 1 (49) | Winner season 49 | Voted out Episode 2 | |
| Oscar "Ozzy" Lusth | 43 | 4 (13, 16, 23, 34) | Runner-up season 13 | |
| 34 | 1 (47) | 7th jury member season 47 | Voted out Episode 6 | |
| 28 | 1 (45) | Winner season 45 | Voted out Episode 7 | |
| Rizo Velovic | 25 | 1 (49) | 8th jury member season 49 | |
| Benjamin "Coach" Wade | 53 | 3 (18, 20, 23) | Runner-up season 23 | |
| 54 | 1 (37) | Runner-up season 37 | Voted out Episode 4 | |
| Jonathan Young | 32 | 1 (42) | 8th jury member season 42 |
The season features three previous winners, all from recent seasons: Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49. All previous winners have been eliminated. We also have eight runners-up, and two second-runners-up.
Cirie and Ozzy both return for a fifth season of the American version of the game, although Cirie also has an Australian season under her belt.
🗳️ Fan votes
Most of the fan votes have already been revealed. Before the season began, we learned that the tribe colors would be orange, teal, and magenta, and the finale would return to Los Angeles for a live show.
We found out during the premiere that fans voted not to give the tribes rice or supplies. We also saw an idol appear, showing fans voted for them to remain in action, and we saw a dynamic advantage to come out.
In episode 3, we also learned that fans voted "Yes" for a tribe swap, as the original tribes were disbanded and three new tribes of seven were created.
Since then, we have learned that fans voted for "I love twists - bring them on!" and "A decorative bird" as the immunity necklace. Now, only two questions remain to be answered.
Here are a look at the votes yet to be disclosed:
- Final four fire-making -> "Keep it" or "Lose it"
- Final four challenge -> "Pinball Wizard" or "The Obstacle Course" or "Simmotion"
📖 How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.
💡 Why should I wager on Survivor 50 at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
❓ Survivor 50 FAQs
Who is the favorite to win Survivor 50?
Aubry Bracco is trading as the favorite to win Survivor 50 on Kalshi, with odds sitting over 83% following the second episode.
When does Survivor 50 start?
Survivor 50 started on Feb. 25, 2026.
How do I watch Survivor 50?
You can watch the Survivor 50 live on CBS, or stream on Paramount+. Episodes air at 8 p.m. ET.
Which returning winners are appearing on Survivor 50?
Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser in season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49 are the three previous winners returning for Survivor season 50. All have been eliminated for the game.
Who was the first player voted out on Survivor 50?
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty was the first player voted out. She was the lone contestant from Season 1.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
