🏝️ Who Will Win Survivor 50? Best Odds at Prediction Markets
The tribe has spoken, and the fans answered. Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans premieres Wednesday, Feb. 25, at 8 p.m. ET (airing on CBS, streaming on Paramount+). We're breaking down the best odds to win from prediction markets.
The 26-day season will have 24 returning fan-favorites, from old-school legends like Colby Donaldson and Cirie Fields to new-era winners like Savannah Louie. Fans have decided much of what will happen this season, but the final say will be in the players' hands at tribal council, and the stakes have never been higher. As the 3-hour premiere nears, we're diving into prediction markets for who will win Survivor 50.
📊 Who will win Survivor 50?
Aubry Bracco is a huge favorite ahead of the Survivor 50 premiere, trading at over 75% to win the title in the biggest season of the long-standing show's history. Fan-favorite Cirie Fields is her closest competitor, trading at under 10%. As weekly episodes air and players are voted off, the odds will change.
You can currently buy Braco "yes" for 76 cents. In most cases the price in cents for the "yes" directly matches the chance, however, in rare instances there is a cent or two if discrepancy.
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Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
What do those percentage chances mean?
For many who are new to prediction markets, its handy to put the Kalshi percentage chances into American odds. We do that by using an odds converter, registering the percentage chances as the implied odds. Here's a snapshot of the top 10 best chances to win ahead of the premiere, and a look at what their American odds would be.
| Player | Kalshi percentage chance | American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 76% | -317 |
| Cirie Fields | 9% | +1011 |
| Joe Hunter | 4% | +2400 |
| Jonathan Young | 4% | +2400 |
| Benjamin "Coach" Wade | 2% | +4900 |
| Charlie Davis | 2% | +4900 |
| Chrissy Hofbeck | 2% | +4900 |
| Ozzy Lusth | 2% | +4900 |
| Rizo Velovic | 2% | +4900 |
| Stephanie LaGrossa Kendrick | 2% | +4900 |
🔮 Survivor 50 prediction
Bracco is the leader here, and there are plenty of reasons for that. She has plenty of experience with three seasons under her belt (32, 34, 38), including a runner up finish in her debut, a final five in her second shot, and a jury appearance in her most recent showing.
She's recognized as a strategic mastermind, and is coming off a six-year hiatus that will leave her feeling energized and focused. Perhaps most importantly: she won't have the same large target as some of the biggest names like Cirie and Ozzy, meaning that she's likely to escape the early game and can maneuver her way to the mid and late game.
She's my pick to win right now at 76 cents while there is still value.
Long-shot pick
Joe Hunter might only be trading a 3% right now, but he's my dark-horse pick to perhaps pull it off. Hunter recently appeared in season 48, reaching a final where he lost in the vote (finishing as second runner-up).
Like Bracco he won't carry the same target in the early game as the faces that would be on the Survivor Mount Rushmore. Hunter will be able to lean on his loyalty levels from his first appearance, and his has the physical abilities to pull through as a threat when the game reaches individual challenges.
🏝️ Who is competing
Here is a look at the 28 players that will take to the beaches of Fiji to compete in season 50, listed alphabetically.
| Contestant | Age | Appearances (season number) | Best finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 39 | 3 (32, 34, 38) | Runner-up season 32 |
| Quintavius "Q" Burdette | 31 | 1 (46) | 6th jury member season 46 |
| Charlie Davis | 27 | 1 (46) | Runner-up season 46 |
| Rick Devens | 41 | 1 (38) | 13th jury member season 38 |
| Colby Donaldson | 51 | 3 (2, 8, 20) | Runner-up season 2 |
| Tiffany Ervin | 34 | 1 (46) | 10th jury member season 46 |
| Cirie Fields | 54 | 4 (12, 16, 20, 34) + Australia (13) | 8th jury member season 16 |
| Emily Flippen | 30 | 1 (45) | 5th jury member season 45 |
| Kyle Fraser | 31 | 1 (48) | Winner season 48 |
| Chrissy Hofbeck | 54 | 1 (35) | Runner-up season 35 |
| Christian Hubicki | 39 | 1 (37) | 7th jury member season 37 |
| Joe Hunter | 45 | 1 (48) | Second runner-up season 48 |
| Kamila Karthigesu | 31 | 1 (48) | 8th jury member season 48 |
| Angeline Keeley | 35 | 1 (37) | Second runner-up season 37 |
| Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick | 45 | 3 (10, 11, 20) | Runner-up season 11 |
| Jenna Lewis-Dougherty | 47 | 2 (1, 8) | 7th jury member season 8 |
| Savannah Louise | 31 | 1 (49) | Winner season 49 |
| Oscar "Ozzy" Lusth | 43 | 4 (13, 16, 23, 34) | Runner-up season 13 |
| Genevieve Mushaluk | 34 | 1 (47) | 7th jury member season 47 |
| Dianelys "Dee" Valladares | 28 | 1 (45) | Winner season 45 |
| Rizo Velovic | 25 | 1 (49) | 8th jury member season 49 |
| Benjamin "Coach" Wade | 53 | 3 (18, 20, 23) | Runner-up season 23 |
| Mike White | 54 | 1 (37) | Runner-up season 37 |
| Jonathan Young | 32 | 1 (42) | 8th jury member season 42 |
The season features three previous winners, all from recent seasons: Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49. We also have eight runners-up, and two second-runners-up.
Cirie and Ozzy both return for a fifth season of the American version of the game, although Cirie also has an Australian season under her belt.
🗳️ Fan votes
Two fan votes have already been revealed: the tribe colors will be orange, teal, and magenta, and the finale will return to be done live in Los Angeles.
Here are a look at some votes remaining to be disclosed:
- Rice -> "Give them rice" or "Make players earn it"
- Final four fire-making -> "Keep it" or "Lose it"
- Final four challenge -> "Pinball Wizard" or "The Obstacle Course" or "Simmotion"
- Advantages -> "Minimal power" or "Strategic power" or "Dynamic power"
- Tribe switch -> "Yes" or "No"
- Immunity necklace design -> "A medallion" or "A decorative bird"
- Tribe supplies -> "Give them their camp supplies!" or "Make them earn their camp supplies!"
- Twists -> "I don't list twists - keep them rare!" or "I love twists - bring them on!"
- Idols -> "No" or "Yes"
📖 How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.
💡 Why should I wager on Survivor 50 at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
❓ Survivor 50 FAQs
Who is the favorite to win Survivor 50?
Aubry Bracco is trading as the favorite to win Survivor 50 on Kalshi, with odds sitting at 76% just days out from the premiere.
When does Survivor 50 start?
The three-hour premiere for Survivor 50 is scheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 25 at 8 p.m. ET
How do I watch Survivor 50?
You can watch the Survivor 50 premiere live on CBS, or stream on Paramount+.
Which returning winners are appearing on Survivor 50?
Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49 are the three previous winners returning for Survivor season 50.
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