Golden Globe Awards Closing Odds and Results: Who Won the Evening?
If the 2026 Golden Globe Awards are meant as a true precursor to the Oscars, then don't expect any major surprises on the film side March 15.
The 83rd edition of the Golden Globes saw virtually no drama, with all but two of the 11 major film categories going to the betting odds favorite (and the other two going to +130 and +135 "underdogs".) And that's a real bummer to those who like their awards shows spicy, with the top sportsbooks and best betting sites absolutely nailing the odds this time around. If it's your first time placing bets, check out our sportsbook promos guide for the best sign-up bonuses.
Here's a look at the closing odds, pre-event analysis and final results from the movie section of the 2026 Golden Globes:
2026 Golden Globe Awards Closing Odds and Results
(Closing odds as of Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET.)
Best Motion Picture - Drama
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinners | -155 | 60.78% | $6.45 |
| ⭐ Hamnet | +130 | 43.48% | $13 |
| Sentimental Value | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| It Was Just an Accident | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| The Secret Agent | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Frankenstein | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
Fan and critic popularity are always a good place to start when analyzing which films have a shot at this award: And you'll be in tough to find a movie that has more currency in both areas than Sinners. The Ryan Coogler vehicle has an absurd 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and if you were to poll moviegoers on which film they enjoyed most in 2025, this would almost certainly appear atop the most lists. Hamnet could give Michael B. Jordan and Co. a run, but this award should go to Sinners.
My Pick: Sinners (-155)
🏆 Result: With One Battle After Another expected to roll to the Oscar win when the two Best Picture categories here are combined, this was Sinners' best shot at a marquee victory. But it was Hamnet that pulled off the mild surprise win; it will be interesting to see how this decision shuffles the odds behind OBAA in the Oscars picture.
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ One Battle After Another | -1000 | 90.91% | $1 |
| Marty Supreme | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| No Other Choice | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Bugonia | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Nouvelle Vague | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Blue Moon | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
Awards show betting markets are considerably tighter than they used to be, which (unfortunately for chaos addicts) means that films priced this emphatically are even closer to a sure bet than their sports contemporaries. One Battle After Another dominated the major trophies at the Critics' Choice Awards, and while that's not always an indication of things to come, these odds sure are. I wouldn't mess around here: Eat the chalk and look for bigger profits elsewhere.
My Pick: One Battle After Another (-1000)
🏆 Result: More like "One Favorite After Another", am I right? The hefty favorite wins the prize here, which came as a surprise to no one – particularly after Paul Thomas Anderson had secured Best Director honors earlier in the evening.
Best Motion Picture - Animated
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ KPop Demon Hunters | -900 | 90.00% | $1.11 |
| Little Amelie or The Character of Rain | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Arco | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Zootopia 2 | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Elio | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
If you didn't have "Golden" stuck in your head at some point in 2025, you're one of the lucky ones. And the film's musical resonance isn't the only reason why it's a very safe bet (we don't use "lock" in these parts, but you know what we're saying); it's a sensational animated film, renowned by both critics (93% fresh on RT) and fans (99% fresh). With respect to the rest of the nominees (a terrific group in its own right), KPop Demon Hunters is quite likely gonna be, gonna be golden Sunday night.
My Pick: KPop Demon Hunters (-900)
🏆 Result: There really couldn't have been another choice here. KPop Demon Hunters has made a profound impact since release, and is headed for a very good Oscars night.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | -280 | 73.68% | $3.57 |
| Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | +230 | 30.30% | $23 |
| Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine) | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere) | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein) | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
This is where you'll likely see the first upset – and there's really only one actor in position to pull it off. Jordan's stellar performance in Sinners has drawn raves across the industry, and while you could have easily made a case to include castmate Wunmi Mosaku on this list, the fact that he isn't might actually work significantly in Jordan's favor. I still like Moura ever-so-slightly over Jordan with all things equal, but Jordan represents considerable value in comparison, which makes him the clear betting choice.
My Pick: Michael B. Jordan (+230)
🏆 Result: Moura fended off the challenge from Jordan to earn the inside track in what should be a much tighter Oscars race. This was one of the best shots at cashing a value play Sunday, and those who like a good Oscars longshot play can't be happy with how the night played out overall.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | -1250 | 92.59% | $0.80 |
| Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Tessa Thompson (Hedda) | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
As easy as it gets. Buckley was absolutely sublime as Agnes Shakespeare, putting in one of the greatest performances by a lead actress this decade. Book the win and move on.
My Pick: Jessie Buckley (-1250)
🏆 Result: Buckley was the only candidate sports betting sites took seriously in this category, and her win might be the least surprising development of the night.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | -450 | 81.82% | $2.22 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) | +430 | 18.87% | $43 |
| Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Lee Byung-Hun (No Other Choice) | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| George Clooney (Jay Kelly) | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
It's staggering to see Leo so far ahead of the rest of the field here for his portrayal of "Ghetto" Pat Calhoun in One Battle After Another – and yet miles behind favorite Chalamet in the odds. Tim has already won at the Critics' Choice Awards, and I'm not about to play contrarian given the weight of buzz linking him to his first Oscar win. Sure, the young fellas almost never win this award – but there's a reason the word is "almost".
My Pick: Timothee Chalamet (-450)
🏆 Result: Chalamet continued his unabated run toward his elusive first Academy Award, earning the Golden Globe just as oddsmakers (and most pundits) projected.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) | -500 | 83.33% | $2 |
| Emma Stone (Bugonia) | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Cynthia Eviro (Wicked: For Good) | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
This is a tricky one. Byrne is a worthy favorite in the latest odds, and most years I wouldn't be at all comfortable with her being so far in front given the quality of actresses and performances she's facing. But Byrne was just that damned good; it's easily the best performance of her career, and the fact that there isn't a clear No. 2 to challenge her suggests that oddsmakers agree. I believe the upset potential is there, but Byrne is my pick.
My Pick: Rose Byrne (-500)
🏆 Result: Byrne quelled any suspense with her well-deserved win, but still seemed a bit surprised to be on stage, telling the crowd: "This is such a shock." Not to us!
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture - Supporting Actor
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) | +130 | 43.48% | $13 |
| Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) | +170 | 37.04% | $17 |
| Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) | +380 | 20.83% | $38 |
| Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Paul Mescal (Hamnet) | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
The Supporting Actor and Actress categories should be the highlights of the night on the film side – and honestly, I'm stuck. The top four men on this list are all worthy of consideration, though it's mildly surprising that Sinners didn't land at least one nominee. Of the quartet at the top, I believe Penn is the best value play – and not just because he's fourth in the odds. His turn in One Battle After Another was some of his best work, and that's really saying something. Upset alert!
My Pick: Sean Penn (+500)
🏆 Result: Stellan Skarsgard (+130) does what bookmakers expect and cashes his modest odds edge for his terrific portrayal of complicated film director Gustav Borg in Sentimental Value. I steadfastly maintain that any of the top four men on this list were full value for the award; as a bettor, I'm a little disappointed we didn't get a longer winner. And I'm a huge Skarsgard fan.
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture - Supporting Actress
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Madigan (Weapons) | +100 | 50.00% | $10 |
| ⭐ Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) | +135 | 42.55% | $13.50 |
| Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) | +3500 | 2.78% | $350 |
With awards shows markets, what you hear is as important as what you see. And while you can judge Madigan's performance in Weapons for yourself, the level of acclaim she has earned from critics and other industry notables is jet-engine-loud. I don't believe this will be much of a contest at all – not because I think less of Taylor in OBAA, but because Madigan has latched on to something really special here. And the people with the votes are keenly aware. (Sorry, Ariana.)
My Pick: Amy Madigan (+100)
🏆 Result: Teyana Taylor (+135) gave us our biggest movie award upset – and an incredibly minor one, at that – in the first award of the evening, besting Madigan as the No. 2 favorite for the award. It looks like all the smoke around Madigan was just that, though I would be surprised if she isn't at least a co-favorite for the Oscar award in the same category.
Best Director
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) | -600 | 85.71% | $1.67 |
| Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) | +850 | 10.53% | $85 |
| Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
After a couple of odds sweats, we're back to chalk soup. OBAA has rolled through early awards season, and when films do that, it's always great news for the director. Anderson's payout is on the meager side for most bettors, but there really isn't any need to overthink this. Coogler and his Sinners team will win its share of awards, but Anderson's directorial dominance is clear from the first minute of his film. He should win this without much of a challenge.
My Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson (-600)
🏆 Result: Anderson's victory won't even earn you a Starbucks drink on a $20 bet, but it does make Anderson the runaway choice to win one of the most prestigious Oscars on the menu. Look for Anderson to waltz to an Academy Award in a little over two months.
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
| Selection | Closing Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ Sinners | -320 | 76.19% | $3.13 |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | +240 | 29.41% | $24 |
| KPop Demon Hunters | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Wicked: For Good | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Zootopia 2 | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Weapons | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
We close exactly where we began: With Sinners earning a trip onstage. This award is made (literally) for films like Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good, but neither of those movies fared all that well critically; they were fine, but not nearly on the same level as Sinners. Combine universal admiration with a strong showing at the ticket window, and it would take some serious tunnel vision for either Avatar or KPop Demon Hunters to steal the trophy.
My Pick: Sinners (-320)
🏆 Result: There really wasn't much doubt here, with Sinners easily providing the best balance of acclaim and box office success. Hey, chalky wins are still wins!
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Golden Globe Awards FAQs
When did the Golden Globe Awards take place?
The Golden Globe Awards took place on Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET.
Where were the Golden Globe Awards held?
The Golden Glove Awards were held at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, Calif.
Who hosted the Golden Globe Awards?
Nikki Glaser returned to host the Golden Globe Awards for a second consecutive year.
